Stebo
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Everything posted by Stebo
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I'll take Unrealistic Phenomena for $2000 Alex.
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I couldn't find climatology for thickness records, but 500mb heights I did find, and that would have been near historic. The lowest heights I found for Melbourne was 544dm and 550dm for Miami. This was 547 and 550 exactly.
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Man the GFS
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What he is saying is right, at the very least it isn't wall to wall blowtorch look starting around the first.
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Yep, lets just fast forward to mid March
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I would check historical numbers vs the sensationalism that is the NE subforum.
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Long range storms at least signify potential. When you are consistently showing nothing, the signal is for a pattern to produce nothing. It isn't just the GFS either, but the GEFS/EPS also are coming up with nothing through their runs.
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Hell I'm just happy to see something. Having a July pattern in December is garbage.
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Yeah you don't want it dry this time of year either, that can have a negative feedback with moisture transport especially if it is widespread.
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ZZZZZ
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Why must you put this evil upon this forum
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If split flow is the theme for this winter then we can just jet right to April.
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Gotta be one garbage model in the bunch.
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You aren't kidding, hell some of the soundings for here have PWATs near .70 with an all snow profile.
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More low centers north of the river/not in TN/MS/AL. Something to monitor for sure for a trend or just a blip.
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What is your take on the Euro and its ensembles being notoriously dry with cold season precip in the cold sector of systems. Been noticing that since the upgrade before last winter.
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Euro has had moisture issues since the last update before last winter, so this isn't surprising to see the differences.
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Above normal for all the major cities in the east, color me shocked. He should just issue this forecast every year September 1st.
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It has been wet and seasonably mild that's about it. Though that is down here, up north it has been the opposite.
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0-4 above normal is barely noteworthy.
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Now do 10/31 to 11/21 added in since you cherry picked the only warm period since snow started falling.
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Locally it is true since the late 70s. snowy November has equaled a less snowy December since the late 70s locally. Before than it is more mixed.
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The concern I have with that mean is that it might be too far east for most here with the trough axis. I guess we will see but I don't want to jump into a nor'Easter bonanza while we shut down.
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All the interesting shit evaporated, so did everyone.
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