rochesterdave

NAM comes in hot and RGEM backs off. LOL

I jumped the gun. NAM is just a bit slower getting precip N. Actually looks great. Lol

NAM is coming in east and a bit suppressed. Not huge difference 

This isn’t a true Miller type storm. It’s more a baroclinic zone with a wave and over riding. I wouldn’t expect a big NW deformation zone. I don’t see any big sign of any enhancement off a NE wind. But time will tell, I’d love to see the Canadian models come to fruition. 

BUF 5”

ROC 6”

SYR 7”

Ithaca 8”

Scranton 2”

Fulton 8”

Penn Yan 10”

the zone of heaviest snow can still move NW affecting the thruway corridor? Or sleet could kill us all

GTA is in a tough spot for big accumulations. Very little lake effect and for whatever reason, the synoptic storms hit Ontario and shunt east. 

It would drive me absolutely nutz. 

But you guys have an economy we are all jealous of. My house, in Rochester, is worth about 90k; in Toronto, it’d be worth 250 or so. 

HRDPS shows an enhanced band moving SW into BUF. I see some credence to this. 

NWS disco did a hard pass on the storm. Barely even mentioned it. Could’ve the right move. IDK. They could of backed up their lack of interest with an explanation. All they say is, “thermos and qpf issues”. WTF!

Canadian has also been incredibly consistent. I’ll eat my hat if NYC gets 6”+

Should be a decent storm for everyone. Perhaps with the exception of our far western friends. I liked the NWS for an area wide watch. Seems they aren’t as keen on this storm. 

8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro close to something big..

For Binghamton 

.

Rochester getting some action 

Northern Monroe now gets into the action. I’ll believe it when I see it;  that area is the most difficult region to forecast in NY. 

Wouldnt be shocked to see flags extended. 

This next system could be a repeat of this one. I really hope we don’t have another winter were every model has a blockbuster 5 days out only to lose it at the 48 hr. GTA, I feel your pain. 

The analogues look decent still. IDK. 

Quickly losing hope on the Friday thing. 

2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I see his gripe because with a normal seasonal change, as the Jet strengthens and starts to move South, usually systems come in through the Mid-west then head for the Lakes, as the Jet is still too far North, for any real Cold air intrusions.  As this occurs, systems pass by to our West, usually, and hence the SSW-SWerly flow which usually develops and smashes KBUF and the usual hot spots with a SW flow off Erie!

This year is the exact polar opposite and I don't see a change anytime soon unfortunately. The Jet is diving Southward as if Its Winter time already with Arctic Intrusions never mind a bit o cold air that usually invades during November besides the anomalous years like the current one.  I see nothing but NW-WNW-Werly flow events for the foreseeable future unfortunately but that doesn't mean anything, cause this can all change on a dime....... But I don't see that dime just yet!

It's just hard to imagine KBUF not seeing a few feet of LE during any given Winter so....Time will tell.

So true. 

34 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

To me this is a pretty good representation of the country snowfall, give or take..

Also a great depiction of snowfall in Monroe County. From over 100” in the North to just under 60” near Henrietta. 

Thats close to 2x. Not quite the drastic difference seen in Erie though.Wow!

Hey Matt, this site is clunky as hell. I eventually got a photo shrinking app. It sounds like your photos have too much data. 

Some camera apps also take pics with a lower data file. Max is 1.95 MB. There might also be a setting on your actual phone to decrease the the size of each pic. 

Its a pain. And you can’t use normal emojis either. This site is very old. 

Tug Hill Matt is gonna be pretty popular around here. It’s going to be great to have eyes on the ground up in that region. I might become insanely jealous. 

Mesoscale coming in with warning amounts for the elevations of WNY

The RGEM 18z paints a big time snowfall for all of W and C NY. This one might still have a trick or two up it’s sleeves. Every other model in the 1-6” range. 

I don’t care if it sticks around. It’s my best chance at our first inch. It’s always exciting. Any more than that is cake. 

RGEM and HRDPS both much better looking. We’re still talking only 3-6”, but much better runs. 

NWS certainly not impressed with valley accumulations. 

18z NAM coming in a tad more interesting. 

Tuesday’s storm is now so anemic that it is completely being disregarded and folks are already moving on to the next (unimpressive) threat. It was fun while it lasted.  

Who knows, maybe Ontario can throw us a little love on the backside. NW flow for a few hours. 

It’s definitely not looking like a big deal. The NAM has a swath of snow well to the NW (think SW Ontario) and a dry slot over WNY followed by some mixing issues over CNY. An anemic looking mess. 

Doesnt dig and really scoots along. Looking more like a 2-4” mess as opposed to the 6-10” we were looking at yesterday. 

All that said, it still has potential. I’m not done tracking this one. Could get a boost from the lakes if it’s cold enough.