rochesterdave

8”

11 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Parent SLP starting to fill in now as the coastal takes over.  Lets all pray it doesn't rob all the energy thats currently over us.

I hope it shoots moisture back for a bit. Some models showed that. Especially for you guys. 

1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Heavy band of snow just parked over a large area to the SE of the Lake!

Mother of GOD!!

I feel bad for Hetsko. Man! He’s chased Williams for 15 years and gets a fever on an epic night and posts a ridiculous forecast. Insane. Peeps will still love him for his energy. But what a **** up!!!

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

Here’s the SW-NE pivot of the micro band I was talking about. Probably Tim’s thunder snow. 

Its now gonna go N-S and pickup lake moisture. Eventually NW-SE. like a clock. The big ones do this. 

Like a clock moving backwards.

Here’s the SW-NE pivot of the micro band I was talking about. Probably Tim’s thunder snow. 

Its now gonna go N-S and pickup lake moisture. Eventually NW-SE. like a clock. The big ones do this. 

Did you hear thunder Tim?

1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Best synoptic event for my area since V-Day 2014 I think as that was a goodie. Temp must be below 32F as winds have picked up in earnest and the dendrites are now flying about but before, they were coming straight down!  2.5" down already so SYRMAX is in for a surprise when he wakes in a few hrs, lol, as he was expecting a slushy 1' or 2, lol!!

SEE! I had to fight you every god damn step of the way. 

Just back from walk. Closing in on 6”. Very heavy snow but dendrites are tiny. Almost sleet. I think it’s a function of how far N the low went. 

Radar keeps regenerating NW of us. It’s gonna be a long night boys! Epic Night. 

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

How much you measure dave?

I’m gonna go back out after this beer!

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You focus more on models then enjoying the actually event real time, go out and enjoy! 

That IS our enjoyment! Everyone gets their kicks different. Ya know?

My earlier calls. 

My call on Bing was just lucky. They are gonna miss this one. 

Perfect placement!

8 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Gotta rack out. Driving to Albany tomorrow probably for work conference.  Not much happening here yet. No wind, mixed precip. Yawn.   Congrats to WNY!! About time.

I wish we could share. I honestly believe you guys cash in too. This is a 90% deal. 

Roc should be upgraded. It’s madness. But everyone’s asleep. So whatever. 

We are gonna verify 4 hrs of below 1/4 and winds above 35. I’m pretty sure. This is epic. I’m on just southeast of Kroc tonight. Dumped my lakeshore abode for better dynamics here at my folks. Always a crap shoot!

Just got back from a walk with the dogs. 500 meter visibility. 40 mph east wind. 31.2F. 

Just gorgeous. About 4” so far on grass and accumulating at 1.5”/ hr. 

This was always a great tee up for Kroc. I’ve been bullish for a week. Climo played a lot. As did crashing NAO and track. We always get a big one this time of year. 

Are folks in the city or Greece not getting this yet!?!? I feel sorry for Scott Hetsko, pussing our and dropping totals ton4-7”. This might be historic. 

2”/hr rates in Pittsford. Listening for thunder!!!4”

This ****er screams overperform all up and down the block! Thundersnow in areas that were northern envelope. Boom!

7 minutes ago, tim123 said:

New wrf model and nnb both give roc 2 inches of qpf

It would be great if you could post them! Thanks

12 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

And the rain has begun and heavy right off the bat with a temp of 38F.

Look at how the warm air gets tucked in just to the SE of the Lake right over my house, lol

Dude! I went from 41-32 in 90 mins! Relax. You’ll get yours. It’s coming. Amped system. Should hit you with higher end expectations. 6”+ you were never in the sweet spot.

This is the hvy meso band that will slowly move north into Roc and Syr and then orient SW-NE over several hours. It should be enhanced by the lake around 2 am.  

This storm is a perfect set up for the Thruway corridor and everywhere just south. 

RAP gives S Monroe and SW Wayne county 1” of LIquid Equivalent over next 4 hrs. Buckle up Tim! It’s gonna be wild!!! HRRRX and HRR show big totals too. 

2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Look at the wrap around over Cleveland. Looks like lake enhanced to me. 

Tim, around 4am it’s gonna be snowing sooo hard in Rochester. Between synoptic and enhanced, we won’t be able to see our shoes. 

For those in Roc freaking out that it’s a bust, I didn’t expect snow this hvy, or for it to stick, this soon. In my book, it’s early. 

All systems go for a foot plus. My early call on Roc was 18”. I’m sticking with it. Thundersnow just west of us. Not just SW, but west!!