rochesterdave

Pretty big bust for CNY. Sucks for them I’m sure. 

The models have a strong tendency to bring these EC storms too far West. It happens everytime. We gotta remember to adjust those 24-36 hr maps East by about 100 miles or so (200 this time). 

Winter appears to be over unless you live on the Tug. Hopefully we get one more surprise. Peace! 

NYC gets their i95 storm. 

Doubt anyone west of 81 sees 6”. Even with LES. 

Getting interesting. I might have to eat my hat on this one. At least Concerning Syracuse. 

Enhancement looking more and more possible. 

It is fun to watch the SNE boards freak out. I know how they feel. Good luck CNY peeps. 

1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

They went to 4", its a start, lol!

You gotta quit this storm. I don’t understand you. You hated on the last one up until it buried you and yet you hug this one for zero reason. 

interesting stuff on the Nam. Showing a strong response from Georgian Bay from primary. 

Rocs only game is to get a similar response. We’d want the primary further SE.  meso stuff to keep an eye on. Still expecting Butkus from Buf-Syr. Bing is a roll of the dice. I think mostly east. 

EURO still pretty Far East. It’s a I-95 storm. 

Euro had interesting ensembles out, yesterday, for next week. I hope to see that again. 

It’d be nice to keep it interesting. Well East of 81 as I see it. Just not enough time. Not enough dig. Not enough negative. Forms to far N. It has a kicker (slow pusher). 

Just not enough anything. Hope I’m wrong. NAM has been crushing it this year. I’m probably being dumb to discount it. And we have about 2 more model cycles where EC storms trend west (before correcting East in last couple). So 18z- tomorrow’s 6z Nam could be entertaining, if not misleading. 

1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

That would be the ideal track for me!

None of them have a track anywhere near that now. Unfortunately, they all goto the benchmark. It’s NYC- Boston storm. Let’s watch for next week!

Next one looking less and less interesting. Still time. Not much. 

Lake enhancement never happened for Roc. As a couple of you observed, it was too warm. It was a wetter scenario. We got 10-16” region wide, but came up short my 18” prediction. Syracuse did well...

My totals were close. Just sayin. LOL

1 hour ago, CNY_WX said:

Oh Canada!  What are the chances?

I love the Canadian model, honestly, it’s a great model. I’m not biting. Not yet. Let’s see the Euro.

Im expecting a weak primary that rolls to near Buf and then transfers to Delmarva and scoots to the stupid freaking benchmark. Giving NYC a silly inch. But leaving WNY out of anything real. 

But damn, Canada gives me hope. We are inside that climo window. I can feel long distance eye rolls by the way. 

12z EPS wants to really keep that LP tucked in. A bit further west and we can talk. I don’t really see what would do that. Anyone? 

Until then, Nah. 

At first limited glance. This next one should be much less in western zones. GFS does show the coastal retrograde into Maine which might be interesting. As of now, we rely on a weak, rather N primary. 

I’m not a fan. Yet...Syracuse East might do ok. 

3 hours ago, LivingstonWx said:

KROC would have verified...

Yeah. Tim and I were rattling that cage. Middle of the night. Nobody cares. Very little drifting due to wetness (I expected drier). 

18 hours ago, Syrmax said:

So do we have a model winner in this one? I’m excluding the short range ones.  I don’t know if NAM wins just because of how atrocious it performed in New England regarding snowfall.  I think further west, this forum, it did well.  GFS? Meh.  Euro...dishonored itself mostly, in aggregate.  GEM/RGEM?

Still snowing BTW, SN-...16” here total.  Looks like one last batch rotating in now.

The ARW/NMM did well. As did RGEM.  I’d give it to NAM. 

Euro was bad. 

Woodcliff 

Every storm the radars crash. Unbelievable.

Took a walk, 14” in the open grassy areas. 2.5” LE. Gonna drive up to Woodcliff peak. Betting on 18-20”. Anyone know what Bristol ended with?

About 10-12” in Pittsford. Great storm. Stayed wetter than I though. Lots of compaction. Probably 2” LE. 15” if measuredwith a board etc. I’m going with a foot. As usual, photos suck and don’t do it justice. 

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

This is 5” to the W Fulton cocorahs, And we haven’t had much since 7 am, maybe 1/2”-1” max...Must of got ripped off few miles to my SW lol

That’s 5”?!? I need to educate you on how to side stick a ruler. 10”, easy. Lol

Primary ended up over Williamsport. Just a perfect track. Roc should end with under or about 18”. A big one for us. About as big as this track allows. 

IDK. Roc will end up with 10-18. So Euro isn’t that bad. 

We are in the pivot now. So halfway at 6-8” ? 

Good storm.