tombo82685

Lol holy heck. Back in sepa that’s like two of my avg snowfalls in one event lol

Yea that’s what I have been using which is why it shocked me their map. But I also feel once out towards that part of Lewis county observers are few and far between. Think they had like 150-175 for your area on their annual map

O I know it is. Just shocked me they had that low. I was also wondering if those maps are just kind of radar estimated too? I mean looking at coocorahs and Nws spotter reports there are like 2 observers in lowville and in chases lake and that’s it. So wondering if they just guess the rest off radar estimates for qpf. I guess I’ll find out this winter.

Lol I bet. Going to email them and see if they can send me the annual snow map. I’ll post it when I get it

I don’t have the map but it had the lowville area less than Buffalo and Watertown. Only had 75-100 which shocked me. Tried looking for the map online but couldn’t find it

Yes I was a spotter for down here had to become one for up there. Was just curious if people did it. Their annual snow map almost made me choke on my water

Anyone doing the skywarn training class tonight for buf?

thanks

do you have to pay for 24hr loop back? Just want to be able to see nightime and when at work if any snow falls

Those totals for syracuse and my hood are way overdone going off soundings.

Those RMM plots are terrible. They have a weak mjo and COD which is flat out wrong. There is good convection in the maritimes. Can see the base state we are in right now is in phase 5ish, around 120e

I mean you could use h5 too. Just thought the dynamic tropopause showed it rather well with the heat transfer from the cyclonic wave break being pushed into Greenland well.

For those wondering, weeklies generally look pretty good. Nothing that screams big time positive anomalies till maybe week 6?

While we def are looking at the storm for the start of Tgiving week and hoping for wintry weather. There are more implications to the overall pattern than meets the eye. Whether it's rain or snow, or no storm, we need that deep trough that neg tilts to materialize. That trough is a good representation of a cyclonic wavebreak that fuels the development of the -nao mid to late tgivng week. First frame we can see the deep trough starting to neg tilt. Can also see the ridge building out ahead of the neg tilt trough neg tilts some more, more ridging building up into southeast Canada finally, cylconic wavebreak completed. Note the massive ridge built into Davis straits

Yea, the low track isn't helping when you have southerly winds. Nothing to advect the cold in all the way down to the surface

Could be rate dependent too. I'm looking at live webcamera in downtown lowville around 850' and it's still raining. The tughill camera at maple ridge around 950' has snow mixed in.

Thats good quality. I ordered it today. Should have it tgiving week

From what I can see, looks like snow level is somewhere between 800-1000' right now off tughill cameras

The reason why that looks so terrible, is well this is an elevation type event as usual in early season events. Syracuse region has one of the lowest elevations in the area. Aloft it's plenty cold enough to snow, but boundary layer temps are a pain

Outside of day 7, go with ensembles guys. Operational models will flip flop back and forth in regards to handling possible -nao and specifically the north pacific pattern. How the north pacific pattern unfold will determine how cold that first cold shot is tgiving week and if this is a transient shot or sustained. More low pressure in AK/goa will flatten out ridge causing zonal flow. Want the low heights south or by the Aleutians

No reason to back down on cold shot around tgiving even though some models have backed off it. Classic wave 2 hit in strat, albeit a bit weaker than it was a week ago. Can see from chart below 2 areas of warming on either side of SPV that elongates it like a hot dog. The alignment of this wave 2 hit to me correlates well to a solid cold shot coming south out of Canada into the plains then east. Can see the wave 2 amplitude on stratobserve maps We also have high latitude blocking going on as well with some -nao action possibly around tgiving as well -AO. I posted this a few days ago that the gfs backed off the eddy heat flux into the strat which decreased -NAM risk. Well it has since brought back the heat flux in response to the wave 2 hit and we now can see -NAM formation near tgiving. Below is 15 day eps, which will obviously change in some form or another as that far out the wavelengths get smoothed out. As long as that Aleutian low is there, that will teleconnect to a ridge out west or on the west coast which then translates to a trough and nw flow in the east. Will make a post early this coming week as what maybe to look for post tgivng into first part of dec

Wow, def getting that then. Are they pretty hard with weather conditions?

Easy to hook up? wireless or cable?

Anyone have any good recommendations of good outdoor cameras with great quality in night as well? Looking to have one for house in lowville so when I'm away I can see how much snow has fallen. I've been looking at nest cam cameras, anyone have?

bright banding in the tug hill