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donsutherland1

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Everything posted by donsutherland1

  1. donsutherland1
    Most of the guidance had far lower amounts for Richmond. Occasionally, a storm will bring its heavy snowfall 25-50 miles farther north than modeled. That can make the difference between a few inches or a significant snowfall.
  2. donsutherland1
    Today's storm was a milestone event for Richmond. Through 6 pm, Richmond had received 0.90" precipitation. That brought 2018's total precipitation to 61.33", which surpassed the 61.31" that fell in 1975 to become Richmond's 3rd wettest year on record. In addition, Richmond had received 9.0" snow through 5 pm. That smashed the daily record of 1.8", which was set in 1988. That snowfall also ranks as both the 2nd highest daily snowfall up to December 15 and the 2nd biggest snowstorm up to December 15. With additional snow having fallen since then, Richmond could be in line to have both its highest daily snowfall and biggest total snowfall up to December 15. The records up to December 15 are: Daily record: 9.4", December 12, 1917 Biggest snowstorm: 9.9", December 12-13, 1917 Finally, this snowstorm has the potential to become the 2nd largest daily snowfall and 2nd biggest snowfall for December. Those records are 15.0" from December 22, 1908 and 17.2" from December 22-23, 1908.
  3. donsutherland1
    Here it is:
  4. donsutherland1
    The guidance for the most part has been remarkably consistent. I didn’t run numbers for Roanoke earlier, so I don’t know whether much would have changed had I made an estimate for there yesterday.
  5. donsutherland1
    At 3:30 pm, light snow was falling at Asheville. Light rain was also being reported at Wilmington, NC where 2018's annual precipitation record was extended to 95.96". Meanwhile, heavy rain had moved into Pensacola. Overall, the major storm that had been the focus of the computer guidance for more than a week is getting underway. Parts of North Carolina and extreme southwestern Virginia will likely pick up a significant early-season snowfall, even when sleet, freezing rain, and even rain are considered. My final snowfall estimates for select cities are below:
  6. donsutherland1
    As of 9:30 am, Atlanta had picked up 0.22" rain. That brings 2018's total precipitation to 60.08". 2018 is only the 18th year on record that Atlanta has had 60" or more precipitation. 2018 now ranks as Atlanta's 17th wettest year on record, just ahead of 1994 when 60.02" precipitation was recorded.
  7. donsutherland1
    So far, from a quick look at the overnight guidance and the advance of the precipitation, everything seems remarkably on track for the storm.
  8. donsutherland1
    The numbers I posted are below:
  9. donsutherland1
    For a hint of what may lie ahead in terms of incredible moisture, as of 9 pm CST, here are a few precipitation totals in Texas: Houston: 2.55" (heavy rain was still falling) Huntsville: 3.79" (heavy rain was still falling) Palacios: 3.42"
  10. donsutherland1
    Yes. I'll revisit the numbers and possible rankings ahead of the next storm.
  11. donsutherland1
    While the coming snow is the major story for parts of the Southeast, the storm is also likely to dump a widespread 1"-3" precipitation. As a result, 2018 could rank among the 15 wettest years on record in numerous cities in the region. Already, Wilmington, NC has had its wettest year on record, by far. The 95.83" precipitation that has fallen this year has easily surpassing the previous record of 83.65", which was set way back in 1877.
  12. donsutherland1
    Good luck with the move.
  13. donsutherland1
    Summer turned hot in August in New York and the early fall in the eastern U.S. was much warmer than normal. Hopefully, there will be some opportunities this winter for some good snowfall where you are.
  14. donsutherland1
    5".
  15. donsutherland1
    That makes two of us watching from afar, though you are much farther away. Is it still unseasonably warm out in western Europe?
  16. donsutherland1
    It should be an exciting storm. Are you in North Carolina for the storm or watching developments from Amsterdam? P.S. RAH has updated its forecast map. RDU is now shown at 5" (vs. 2" from the earlier map).
  17. donsutherland1
    Given the ridge to the north, I suspect that the 18z run of the RGEM is an outlier. While I think the extreme eastern portion of Virginia could be in line for appreciable to significant snowfall, the overall body of the guidance still leads me to believe that the core of the heaviest snowfall will be over a portion of North Carolina. It will be interesting to see what the 0z guidance shows.
  18. donsutherland1
    The 18z RGEM:
  19. donsutherland1
    I'm presuming the forecast map will be updated soon. RDU is currently shown at 2". Based on a blend of the guidance, I'm thinking 3"-6". I haven't looked at the 18z guidance, yet, so maybe something changed.
  20. donsutherland1
    Thanks for the kind words. I'm hoping that this forum gets to enjoy a really memorable event.
  21. donsutherland1
    Even as residual model uncertainty persists, my confidence in a scenario where parts of North Carolina receive a significant to major snowfall is high. Right now, I'm thinking that Greensboro and Hickory could challenge or exceed their biggest snowfall for the first 15 days of December and possibly even their December record snowfall. Parts of the region will also experience sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Those forms of precipitation will likely hold down accumulations to more modest levels in such cities as Charlotte and Raleigh. Nevertheless, I believe both cities will likely pick up 3"-6" snow. Below is a table showing my current thinking, the December 9 daily snowfall record, the December 1-15 snowfall record, and the December snowfall record. All in all, this should be quite an event for parts of the Carolinas and possibly a small portion of western Virginia.
  22. donsutherland1
    Here's the RGEM through 84 hours (with a caveat that 84 hours is outside its best range):
  23. donsutherland1
    FWIW, 4 of GSP's 6 biggest snowstorms and 4 of GSP's 7 10" or greater snowstorms have occurred in December.
  24. donsutherland1
    Yes.
  25. donsutherland1
    It started running.
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