donsutherland1

Following a day where temperatures reached or exceeded 50° in much of the Middle Atlantic region, another shot of cold air will affect the region. The most significant cold anomalies will impact northern New England. New York City had a mean temperature of 44.8° for November 1-15. That was the coldest mean temperature for the first half of November since 1976 when the average temperature was 42.1°. In Chicago, the mean temperature was 31.2°. That was the coldest first half of November on record in Chicago. The previous record was 31.4°, which was set in 1991. Records go back to 1872. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was +0.51 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.436. The guidance continues to show the AO remaining negative to strongly negative through the 10 days. Such an outcome increasingly indicates that the probability of cooler than normal readings for the second half of November has increased. The base case is now a widespread modest cool anomaly (perhaps 1°-2° below normal). On November 14, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.872 (RMM). The November 13-adjusted amplitude was 2.139. The MJO's progression has accelerated in recent days. The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 89% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

His observation is correct, at least since 1980. Since 1980, when precipitation during the 10/1-11/15 period was 0.5 sigma or more below normal, 58% of winters had seasonal snowfall below 20" in New York City. 25% had 30" or more. 2019 does not fall into that category. Its precipitation was 6.40", which was nearly identical to the 1981-2010 baseline normal figure of 6.31" for that period. 22% of winters following precipitation above -0.50 sigma for the 10/1-11/15 period saw less than 20" snow.

This is very sad. I'm sorry to hear about this.

That's a 3-month average. Personally, I think the extent of warmth is somewhat overdone. Also, the multi-model forecast didn't do too well in North America last year. It was also too warm in the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains for its September-November forecast.

A great link for those looking for a wide range of seasonal forecasts: https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/

A great link for those looking for a wide range of seasonal forecasts: https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/

Not for the faint-hearted (at least those hoping for a cold winter)... The latest C3S multi-model system forecast temperature anomalies:

Record low maximum temperatures for November 13 included: Albany: 26° (old record: 31°, 1911) Allentown: 35° (old record: 36°, 1995) Atlantic City: 37° (old record: 39°, 1968) Binghamton: 21° (old record: 28°, 1977) Bridgeport: 33° (old record: 38°, 1995) Islip: 34° (old record: 39°, 2013) New York City-JFK: 35° (old record: 41°, 1968, 1977, and 2013) New York City-LGA: 35° (old record: 39°, 1977) Newark: 35° (old record: 41°, 1986, 1995, and 2013) Poughkeepsie: 32° (old record: 35°, 1962 and 1986) White Plains: 33° (old record: 35°, 1995)

Record cold shifted northward into northern New England. Record low temperatures were as follows: Bangor: 8° (old record: 11°, 1986) and Caribou: 3° (old record: 4°, 1986). In the northern Mid-Atlantic region, a cold morning was followed by a milder afternoon with readings returning to the 40s. Tomorrow will see temperatures rise toward or above 50° in much of the region. Nevertheless, November 1-15 will likely register a mean temperature of 44.5°-44.9° in New York City. That would be the coldest first half of November since 1976. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -6.49 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.735. The guidance continues to show the AO remaining negative to strongly negative through the 10 days. Such an outcome increasingly indicates that the probability of cooler than normal readings for the second half of November has increased. Thus, an overall anomaly close to normal may now be more likely than a warm one. On November 13, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.137 (RMM). The November 12-adjusted amplitude was 2.291. The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 89% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

I will post them tomorrow morning at the latest. Most of the local area except for Central Park set them.

Record cold covered much of the region this morning. Records included: Allentown: 18° (tied record from 1996); Atlantic City: 21° (old record: 22°, 1995, 1996 and 2001); Baltimore: 22° (tied record set in 1911); Binghamton: 12° (old record: 14°); Bridgeport: 22° (old record: 23°, 1986); Islip: 23° (old record: 24°, 2001); New York City-JFK: 23° (old record: 25°, 1986); New York City-LGA: 24° (old record: 26°, 1986); New York City-NYC: 23° (old record: 24°, 1986); Newark: 22° (old record: 24°, 1986); Philadelphia: 23° (old record: 24°, 1996); Poughkeepsie: 15° (old record: 16°, 2013); Providence: 19° (old record: 20°, 2001); Scranton: 16° (old record: 19°, 1986); and, White Plains: 20° (old record: 23°, 1986). After a brief warmup, another push of cold air is likely for the coming weekend. However, that air mass won't be as the one that shattered records over the past two days. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -10.12 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.785. The guidance continues to show the AO remaining negative to strongly negative through the 10 days. Such an outcome would increase prospects for at least some additional bouts of cold in the East during the second half of November. On November 12, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.290 (RMM). The November 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.351. The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal. The above data suggests that the second half of November will likely have a warm anomaly, though not necessarily a very warm one. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the cold during the first half of the month, which will likely be the coldest first half of the month since 1976, has made it very likely that November will finish with a cold anomaly in the region. November 2019 will likely be somewhat warmer than November 2018 when the monthly mean temperature was 44.4°. In addition, the MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. That development reinforces the idea from the strongly negative SOI earlier this month that December will be likely be warmer than normal. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. The mean temperature for those five cases was 39.7°. The 1981-2010 normal monthly temperature for New York City is 37.5°. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 81% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

I don’t know. In any case, the NWS listed today’s low temperature as a record.

A record cold air mass has now pushed into the region. Prior to its arrival, Detroit saw a November record 9.2" snowfall (November 11-12), which eclipsed the record of 9.0" set during November 15-16, 1932. Record low maximum temperatures were set in numerous cities including: Buffalo: 25° (old record: 31°, 1983); Chicago: 17° (old record: 28°, 1894, 1940, and 1995); Detroit: 25° (old record: 31°, 1995; Indianapolis: 21° (old record: 26°, 1920); Milwaukee: 19° (old record: 23°, 1940); and, Rockford, IL: 16° (old record: 27°, 1940). Record low temperatures were set in among the following cities: Buffalo: 20° (old record: 22°, 1894, 1911, and 1921); Cedar Rapids, IA: -6° (Old record: 5°, 1986); Chicago: 7° (old record: 8°, 1986); Des Moines: 1° (old record: 4°, 1986); Dubuque, IA: -5° (old record: 6°, 1986); Indianapolis: 8° (old record: 14°, 1911); Little Rock: 20° (old record: 22°, 1911); Madison: 4° (old record: 7°, 1911 and 1986); Rockford, IL: 3° (old record: 7°, 1986); Springfield, IL: 5° (old record: 12°, 1986 and 1995); St. Louis: 11° (old record: 12°, 1911); and, Wichita, KS: 8° (old record: 9°, 1911). In the wake of today's Arctic frontal passage, numerous cities in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could challenge or set daily record low temperatures tomorrow morning. Select records for November 13 are: Allentown: 18°, 1996 Baltimore: 22°, 1911 Boston: 14°, 1883 Bridgeport: 23°, 1986 Harrisburg: 21°, 1911 Islip: 24°, 2001 New York City-JFK: 25°, 1986 New York City-LGA: 26°, 1986 New York City-NYC: 24°, 1986 Newark: 24°, 1986 Philadelphia: 24°, 1996 Poughkeepsie: 16°, 2013 Scranton: 19°, 1986 White Plains: 23°, 1986 Washington, DC: 22°, 1911 Another push of cold air is likely for the coming weekend. However, that air mass won't be as cold as the approaching one. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -9.17 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.181. Some of the more recent guidance shows the AO remaining strongly negative through the next two weeks. Such an outcome would increase prospects for at least some additional bouts of cold in the East after mid-month. On November 11, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.352 (RMM). The November 10-adjusted amplitude was 2.450. The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal. Even as the second half of November will likely experience a pattern change to generally warmer than normal conditions within a few days of November 20, the magnitude of the cold during the first half of the month has made it very likely that November will finish with a cold anomaly in the region. It is likely that November 2019 will be somewhat warmer than November 2018 when the monthly mean temperature was 44.4°. In addition, the MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. That development reinforces the idea from the strongly negative SOI earlier this month that December will be likely be warmer than normal. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. The mean temperature for those five cases was 39.7°. The 1981-2010 normal monthly temperature for New York City is 37.5°. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 79% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

FWIW, CBS Radio (880 am) is saying tomorrow’s record low in New York City is 22 degrees set in 1873. It is not. The record is 24 degrees from 1986.

To be fair, that is a Federal Reserve conference. The focus is on areas within the Fed's domain. We agree that climate goes beyond monetary policy, finance, and economics.

At 7 am CST, Chicago reported a temperature of 7 degrees. That broke the daily record low of 8 degrees, which was set in 1986.

Light rain has now reached eastern Westchester County. Chicago has also tied its daily record low of 8 degrees, which was set in 1986.

At 6:35 am, the first showers associated with an approaching Arctic cold front were just west of Newark and Yonkers, NY. Showers had already moved into such cities as Philadelphia and Newburgh. Following the frontal passage, tomorrow morning will see widespread record cold readings in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. As a result, by November 15, New York City will likely have a mean temperature near 44.5°. That would be the coldest first half of November since 1976 when the mean temperature was 42.1°. Yesterday, record low temperatures were set in among the following cities: Chicago: 13° (old record: 15°, 1950) Milwaukee: 14° (old record: 15°, 1986) St. Louis: 16° (old record: 18°, 1911, 1950, and 1976) Chicago had a temperature of 9° at 5 am CST, which was just above the daily record of 8°, which was set in 1986. Record daily snowfall yesterday included: Buffalo: 8.7" (old record: 5.3", 1942) Burlington: 3.4" (old record: 1.3", 1986) Chicago: 3.4" (old record: 1.9", 1995) Detroit: 8.5" (old record: 4.1", 1984) ***Biggest one-day snowfall on record in November*** Indianapolis: 2.8" (old record: 1.2", 1995) Milwaukee: 3.4" (old record: 2.3", 1995) St. Louis: 1.5" (old record: 1.0", 1911)

Detroit Likely Sets a New November Daily Snowfall Record... Through 4 pm, Detroit had picked up 6.0" snow, which broke the November 11 record of 4.1", which was set in 1984. Snow had continued to fall since then. Even as numerous locations have reported updated amounts, no updates have been provided by DTW. However, based on an estimate of precipitation and ratios, it is very likely that the figure has reached 8.0" (7.5"-8.5" estimate). That would set a new daily snowfall record for November. The daily record for November is 7.2", which was set on November 16, 1932. The biggest two-day snowfall total in November is 9.0", which occurred on November 15-16, 1932. Other daily snowfall records for November 11 included: Chicago: 3.4" (old record: 1.9", 1995) Indianapolis: 2.3" (old record: 1.2", 1995) Milwaukee: 3.4" (old record: 2.3", 1995) St. Louis: 1.3" (old record: 1.0", 1911) Finally, at 10 pm CST, Chicago reported a 15° temperature. That tied the daily record low temperature set back in 1950. St. Louis had a temperature of 19°, which was just above the record of 18° set in 1911 and tied in 1950 and 1976. Milwaukee reported a temperature of 16°, which was just above the daily record of 15° set in 1986. 　

From Phys.org: A new study by researchers at the Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Aslak Grinsted, Peter Ditlevsen and Jens Hesselbjerg shows that hurricanes have become more destructive since 1900, and the worst of them are more than three times as frequent now than 100 years ago. A new way of calculating the destruction, compensating for the societal change in wealth, unequivocally shows a climatic increase in the frequency of the most destructive hurricanes that routinely raise havoc on the North American southern and east coasts. The study is now published in PNAS... In previous studies, it proved difficult to isolate the climate signal. The climate signal should be understood as the effect climate change has on hurricane size, strength and destructive force. It was hidden behind variations due to the uneven concentration of wealth, and it was statistically uncertain whether there was any tendency in the destruction. But with the new method, this doubt has been cleared. The weather has, indeed, become more dangerous on the south and east coasts of the U.S. Furthermore, the result obtained by the research team is more congruent with the climate models used to predict and understand the development in extreme weather. It fits with the physics, quite simply, that global warming has the effect that there is an increase in the force released in the most extreme hurricanes. https://phys.org/news/2019-11-hurricanes-bigger-destructive.html The paper can be found here: https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/11/05/1912277116

Historic fire weather conditions in Australia:

As of 4 pm local time, Chicago had picked up 3.4" snow, which broke the November 11 record of 1.9" from 1995. Detroit had received 6.0" snow, which broke the daily record of 4.1", which was set in 1984. Only four prior storms saw 6.0" or more daily snowfall in Detroit in November. The unseasonably cold air mass responsible for the daily record snowfall in Chicago and Detroit will push into the region tomorrow accompanied by rain showers that could end as a brief period of wet snow or flurries even in the New York City and Newark areas. However, the probability that New York City would receive measurable snow is low. In fact, all 6 prior cases of 1.0" or more snow in Detroit on November 11 saw no measurable snow in New York City on November 11 or November 12. Thus, the historical data and guidance are well-aligned. Following the frontal passage, numerous cities in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could challenge or set daily record low temperatures on Wednesday morning. Select records for November 13 are: Allentown: 18°, 1996 Baltimore: 22°, 1911 Boston: 14°, 1883 Bridgeport: 23°, 1986 Harrisburg: 21°, 1911 Islip: 24°, 2001 New York City-JFK: 25°, 1986 New York City-LGA: 26°, 1986 New York City-NYC: 24°, 1986 Newark: 24°, 1986 Philadelphia: 24°, 1996 Poughkeepsie: 16°, 2013 Scranton: 19°, 1986 White Plains: 23°, 1986 Washington, DC: 22°, 1911 Another push of cold air is likely for the coming weekend. However, that air mass won't be as cold as the approaching one. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -9.61 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.668. Some of the more recent guidance shows the AO remaining strongly negative through the next two weeks. Such an outcome would increase prospects for at least some additional bouts of cold in the East after mid-month. On November 10, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.453 (RMM). The November 9-adjusted amplitude was 2.570. The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal. Even as the second half of November will likely experience a pattern change to generally warmer than normal conditions within a few days of November 20, the magnitude of the cold during the first half of the month has made it very likely that November will finish with a cold anomaly in the region. It is likely that November 2019 will be somewhat warmer than November 2018 when the monthly mean temperature was 44.4°. In addition, the MJO has now spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. That development reinforces the idea from the strongly negative SOI earlier this month that December will be likely be warmer than normal. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. The mean temperature for those five cases was 39.7°. The 1981-2010 normal monthly temperature for New York City is 37.5°. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 76% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

Yes, that’s true.

Detroit reported 6.0" snow. That exceeded the previous daily record of 4.1", which was set in 1984.

A belated congratulations, Uncle W.