donsutherland1

The distributions of Phoenix's warming summer high temperatures is shown below. Summer Mean High: 1961-1990: 104.3° 1991-2020: 105.4° 1996-2025: 105.9°

A slow-moving cold front will likely bring showers or thundershowers to the region tomorrow into tomorrow night. Parts of the region could experience flooding. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Friday could see highs in the lower 80s with some additional showers or thundershowers. The weekend could feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The greatest chance for rain will be on Saturday. Somewhat cooler than normal weather will then extend into at least the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -28.34 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.178 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Tomorrow should mainly fair and very warm. Highs will likely reach the middle 80s to perhaps upper 80s across the region. Another cold front could bring some showers or thundershowers to the region Wednesday night or Thursday. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Thursday and Friday could see highs in the lower 80s. The weekend could feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -22.21 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.388 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I agree. I wouldn't be surprised if there are multiple category 4 or above atmospheric rivers this winter. I think it's just impressive that the guidance is hinting at the development of the subtropical jet for the September-November period. That didn't even show up in the fall forecast during the weaker 2023-2024 El Niño. Details about placement are beyond what the guidance can simulate at such timeframes.

The latest C3S seasonal forecast shows the strong El Niño's growing influence on what will likely be a very active subtropical jet during the fall and at least the first half of winter.

From this morning via iPhone:

A few spots could see an evening shower or thundershower. Most of the region will remain dry. Tomorrow and Wednesday should mainly fair and warm. Highs will likely reach the middle 80s to perhaps upper 80s across the region. Another cold front could bring some showers or thundershowers to the region Wednesday night or Thursday. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Thursday and Friday could see highs in the lower 80s. The weekend could feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -18.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.064 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Showers and perhaps a thundershower are likely into this evening into early tomorrow. Following the frontal passage, Tomorrow through Wednesday should feature temperatures in the lower to middle 80s, along with partly to mostly sunny skies. Another cold front could bring some showers or thundershowers to the region Wednesday night or Thursday. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Thursday and Friday could see highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -17.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.420 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (0.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Thank you for the kind words.

With a super El Niño raging in combination with the rising heat of anthropogenic climate change, 2026 has now set daily global temperature records on the ERA-5 dataset for seven consecutive days. In addition, 2026 has the latest 17°C or above global mean temperature by seven days. ERA-5 data for the last four years and daily records for the August 8-14 period are below. For reference, below are the monthly records and number of daily records by year (through August 14, 2026).

Sunrise this morning.

Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden on a sun-filled August day with a light breeze and low humidity:

Clouds will increase tomorrow holding the temperature to the upper 70s or lower 80s. Showers and thundershowers are likely tomorrow night into Monday. A few locations could see heavy downpours. Following the frontal passage, Monday through Wednesday should feature temperatures in the lower 80s, along with partly to mostly sunny skies. Another cold front could bring some showers or thundershowers to the region Wednesday night or Thursday. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Thursday and Friday could see highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -24.10 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.530 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (0.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Late August/early September: Probably near normal with perhaps a cool period. Remainder of September: generally above normal. October: I am really uncertain.

I agree. 1972-73, 1982-83, and 2015-16 had 1 or more days with measurable snowfall in Athens.

Temperatures will top out in the lower to perhaps middle 80s in a few warm spots to start the weekend. Clouds will increase on Sunday holding the temperature to the upper 70s or lower 80s. Showers and thundershowers are likely Sunday night into Monday. A few locations could see heavy downpours. Following the frontal passage, Monday through Wednesday should feature temperatures in the lower 80s, along wth partly to mostly sunny skies. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -22.03 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.810 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.5° (0.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Some statistics for the Southeast concerning snowstorms during strong El Niño winters are below. Atlanta may have among the best chance of seeing a measurable snowstorm this upcoming winter.

As summer concludes, additional charts illustrating the impact of Central Park's trees on its summer maximum temperature trend vs. select regional sites. Maximum temperatures are most impacted (consistent with the impact trees have on limiting the daily maximum temperature). Moreover, the difference between regional trends and Central Park is outside a 95% confidence interval for daily maximum temperatures during the 1995-2025 period. Maximum Temperatures: Minimum Temperatures:

Above normal temperatures will persist through tomorrow. Highs will generally top out in the middle and upper 80s. Cooler air will move into the region to close of the week. As a result, the weekend and early next week will likely see highs mainly in the lower 80s. Some showers or a thundershower could precede a renewed push of cooler air late Sunday or Sunday night. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -5.95 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.165 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.5° (0.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I agree that they are beyond persuasion. Their belief system is a matter of identity and, in that aspect, essentially theological doctrine. But that's not the point. The issue is that climate change disinformation is rampant on social media. The news media still fails, as well, often not connecting events to climate change despite a growing body of attribution findings. Even in many cases where the connection is made, they are silent on the predominant cause: the burning of fossil fuels and the major fossil fuel companies' share of cumulative emissions. As a result, climate change disinformation has swamped credible science. That he science has proved remarkably accurate in projecting the warming, linking the warming to greenhouse gases/the burning of fossil fuels, and identifying potential outcomes in a warming has been drowned out in the deluge of disinformation. Neither basic physics, on which climate change understanding is based, nor the credibility of accurate scientific analysis, has proved an effective antidote to this disinformation. The outcome, as one paper put it, is a "crisis of truth" when it comes to climate change. The paper goes on to explain: Beneath this communication chaos lies a more unsettling truth: climate denial is not the absence of knowledge but the production of strategic ignorance. It is a tool of power, protecting entrenched economic interests and reinforcing the status quo. The deliberate distortion of facts, the manufacturing of uncertainty, and the cultivation of distrust are not accidental, they are calculated mechanisms designed to delay action and disarm the public. That brings us to this year. The Northern Hemisphere is all but certain to experience its hottest summer on record. July 2026 was the warmest month on record for the contiguous U.S. Globally, it was either tied with July 2024 (NOAA) or the warmest month on record (GISS). Nevertheless, the world remains largely paralyzed and unable to make meaningful progress toward a net zero emissions goal by 2050. Indeed, disruptions to shipments of oil through the Strait of Hormuz are viewed as a far graver problem than the rapidly warming climate is. Thus, I respectfully disagree with the notion that one should ignore climate change denial. The deniers aren't the intended audience, as their belief system is beyond reason, evidence, and ethics. The general reader, who encounters their disinformation, is the intended audience. IMO, the prophets and propagandsts of climate change denial and their deep flaws need to be confronted. William Happer: Has never published research on climate. John Clauser: A Nobel Prize in quantum entanglement has nothing to do with climate or climate change. Tony Heller: A Sandy Hook conspiracy theorist who regularly charges the NOAA with data "tampering." Chris Martz: A social media influencer/policy analyst with no climate research to his name and deep struggles with even elementary statistics e.g., he recently railed against "average mean temperature" (sic). What these four examples have in common is that none of them possess the knowledge, background, understanding, or experience to credibly debunk well-established scientific understanding, much less overturn well-established physical properties of greenhouse gases. Despite lofty claims about credentials, they are mere noisemakers. Nothing more. If left unopposed, they will continue to drown out the scientists and scientific understanding.

Above normal temperatures will persist through Friday. Highs will generally top out in the middle and upper 80s. Cooler air will move into the region to close of the week. As a result, the weekend and early next week will likely see highs mainly in the lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was +1.76 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.776 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.5° (0.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I don't disagree that it could be viable, especially if strong blocking were to develop. I was just referring to the entire period. I think a back-loaded scenario is plausible. So is a one notable storm-type idea.

This seems realistic given what is fairly likely (robust and energetic subtropical jet that brings above to perhaps much above normal precipitation to the southern tier). It seems that the initial outlook discounted the 2009-10 analog (as it should). Fall seems more uncertain, as one is dealing both with a lot of variables and the seasonal transition.

The Dust Bowl was a regional phenomenon focused largely on the Plains and Midwest (location of the extreme drought amplified by poor land use/farming practices). Heat occasionally spread outside that region. New York City's 106° record is one example. The heat was so intense that the contiguous United States recorded its hottest month on record in July 1936. That record has fallen now. Slowly but inexorably, as temperatures continue to rise, some of the site records from 1936 in the Plains and Midwest are also being erased. Over the next few decades, many more of those records will likely be eclipsed. It's plausible that the July 2026 mark will be surpassed one or more times in the next 10-20 years.

Parts of the region could see a shower or thundershower this evening and tonight. Above normal temperatures will persist through tomorrow or Thursday. Highs will generally top out in the middle and upper 80s. Cooler air will move into the region to close of the week. As a result, Friday through Sunday could see highs mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was +6.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.346 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (0.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.