donsutherland1

Artwork by Tania Franco Klein at the Yancey Richardson Gallery in New York City:

Rain will arrive tonight. A general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts in excess of 3.00" appears likely. Clouds will break tomorrow with the mercury rising into the upper 70s. However, the coolest air mass so far this season will then push into the region to begin the work week. Highs Monday through Wednesday will reach the lower and middle 70s. New York City will see lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. As a result, Central Park will experience its first reading below 60° this season. the timing matches well with the last two El Niño events: 2015-2016: September 14 and 2023-2024: September 15. Wednesday through Friday will see temperatures recover mainly to the upper 70s. However, additional cool air will likely arrive some time during the next weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. The SOI was -29.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.761 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.2° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The weekend will start dry. However, rain will likely develop tomorrow night. In general, the temperature should top out in the upper 70s with lower 80s possible in the warmest spots this weekend. A period of rain is likely Saturday night into early Sunday. The potential exists for 0.50" or more rainfall. Highs could fall to the lower 70s for Monday and Tuesday before rebounding briefly toward 80° by mid-week. A fresh shot of cool air could arrive late in the week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. The SOI was -28.88 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.897 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.5° (0.3° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

It did. The terrible attacks have left a scar that won’t ever fully heal.

From February 2001:

Using @TheClimateChanger's inspirational mapping work using AI, I ran a map for Colorado. As noted on numerous occasions regarding Denver, summers have grown hotter with the frequency of 90° days increasing dramatically. Mean Number of 90° or Above Highs Each Year: 1872-1999: 27.6 days 2000-2025: 50.7 days 2000-2026: 51.2 days (64 days in 2026 through September 10; mean summer 2026 high: 90.4°) Is the rising heat largely confined to Denver or are summers warming across Colorado? Here's how Colorado's most recent 30-years (1997-2026) compare with the preceding 30-year period. The data show that some of the mountainous regions have seen more rapid summer warming than Denver. In sum, Denver's rising heat is part of a larger story of ongoing climate change.

Somewhat cooler air will overspread the region tonight. In the wake of the frontal passage, highs tomorrow and Friday will likely peak in the upper 70s. In general, the temperature should top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s from the weekend through the middle of next week. Some rain is possible Saturday night into early Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. The SOI was -19.73 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.175 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.0° (0.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Temperatures will likely peak in the lower and middle 80s tomorrow. A shower is possible tomorrow evening or tomorrow night. Another push of cooler air could arrive by Friday or Saturday. Highs on both days will likely peak in the upper 70s. The longer-term outlook has grown somewhat warmer through the middle of next week. In general, the temperature should top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s through the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. The SOI was -15.92 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.211 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.2° (1.0° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The preliminary data reveal that Summer 2026 swept past Summers 1936 and 2021 to easily become the warmest summer on record for the contiguous United States. Five of the ten warmest summers have occurred since 2020. Just two occurred during the 1930s.

Astra did a really good job.

Temperatures will likely peak in the lower and middle 80s tomorrow and Thursday. Another push of cooler air could arrive by Friday or Saturday. Overall, the week looks to be dry with little or no rainfall likely through at least Friday. the greatest likelihood for some showers is Thursday evening and Thursday night when a cold front crosses the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -26.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.761 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.9° (0.7° above normal). The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with the high reaching the lower 80s. Temperatures will likely peak in the lower and middle 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. Another push of cooler air could arrive by Friday or Saturday. Overall, the week looks to be dry with little or no rainfall likely through at least Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -24.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.209 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.7° (0.5° above normal). The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Five photos from the New York Botanical Garden on a sun-filled early September day. The hummingbird migration is in its early stages.

Yes. That's what the current 90-day figures show.

For reference, the latest first lows occurred as follows: 50s: September 17, 2016 40s: October 18, 2021 30s: November 13, 1946 and 2024

Thank you. Yes, that makes sense and it’s clear that there are many days where the mercury exceeds freezing.

I may be referring to a different article. I was citing a ClimateBrink piece by Zeke Hausfather, which didn't mention bias correction. https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/what-we-can-and-cannot-say-about

Tomorrow will be another day with somewhat cooler than normal temperatures, as the mercury tops out in the upper 70s. Tuesday will be a bit warmer with the high reaching the lower 80s. By midweek, readings could return to the lower 80s. A few of the warmer spots could top out in the middle 80s. Another push of cooler air could arrive by Friday or Saturday. Overall, the week looks to be dry with little or no rainfall likely through at least Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.50°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -21.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.838 today.

Here's where I think the issue lies. The graph is based on where the collapsing rock/glacier hit the valley (around 4,300 meters above sea level). The bedrock, glacier was about 5,200 meters. So, the graph is correct in that the region has been warming, but it is not the mean temperature of the actual glacier. Nevertheless, preceding the collapse, temperatures had reached 90° or above in Kathmandu. At standard lapse rates, that would suggest readings in the middle 40s at the altitude of the glacier. During the June 1-August 25 period, Kathmandu had 77 days with highs of 80° or above. At standard lapse rates, that would amount to highs of 35° or above at 5,200 meters. So, at least using the standard lapse rates and Kathmandu's data, most of the summer days saw at least some melting where the collapse took place.

It is, but both sites are in different Himalayan subregions with different topography and wind exposure.

The Everest base camp is about 160 km from the site of the bedrock/glacial collapse that occurred last month.

Florac, France, where September records go back to 1861, has recorded its three hottest September temperatures on record during the current heatwave. September 4, 1966 saw its first 30C (86F) or above September temperature on record.

A cool Labor Day weekend has commenced. Temperatures will generally peak in the middle and upper 70s. Readings in New York City could fall into the lower 60s with widespread 50s outside the City. The cool weather will likely continue into the middle of next week. By midweek, readings could return to the lower 80s. Another push of cooler air could arrive by Friday or Saturday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.50°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -16.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.627 today.

A few areas could see an evening shower. Most of the region will remain dry. Cooler air will move in overnight. A cooler air mass will cover the region for the Labor Day weekend. In its wake, temperatures will generally peak in the middle and upper 70s. Readings in New York City could fall into the lower 60s with widespread 50s outside the City. The cool weather will likely continue through at least the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.50°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -7.78 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.293 today.

Highest daily values for each month and highest monthly and seasonal averages on ERA-5: