donsutherland1

Through today, cumulative snow depth is 83” in NYC. That’s the highest since 2015-16.

Newark had a high of -1 on January 10, 1859.

For NYC, only 2002 and 2020 had no measurable snowfall for February 1-March 31.

1887-88 is ahead mainly because it was several degrees colder through January even as it had slightly less snowfall than the current winter.

Ray has done an awesome job so far. Statistically, a cold March seems less likely, but it's still in play. I think March's outcome depends on whether the modeled SSWE can occur and, if so, whether it can propagate in a favorable fashion. If not, even if March starts cool, things could quickly break to the warm side. New England would probably hold onto the cold longer than the Mid-Atlantic. A strong EPO-/AO- pattern would probably be needed to deliver a 2018-style outcome. At this stage, the WPO becomes less important due to the shorter wave lengths.

Temperatures have begun to moderate. In New York City, the temperature broke above freezing for the first time since January 23. That was the longest such stretch since Winter 2017-2018. Tomorrow and Wednesday will likely see highs in the lower to perhaps middle 30s. A few flurries are possible on Wednesday as a weak system drags a cold front across the region. Colder air will then return on Thursday. An even stronger surge of Arctic air could arrive for the weekend, possibly accompanied by some snow flurries or snow showers. The persistent and often severely cold pattern could break near February 10th. Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around January 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +24.02 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.066 today.

The longest stretch of subfreezing days since 2017-18 ended today. The ECMWF weeklies show a distinct milder period of 1-2 weeks duration. Social media is suddenly abuzz about the warmth it has noticed. Still, there's no need to despair. Winter 2025-2026 has already delivered some genuinely great moments. Although those moments might be in the past, they cannot be erased by the forecast moderation that lies ahead beginning around February 10th. Some highlights: New York City experienced its coldest December-January period since 2014-2015. New York City saw an 11.4" snowfall with many areas outside the City picking up 12"-18". New York City has seen two highs in the teens and two lows in the single digits. Outside the City, numerous locations have experienced subzero lows. Ice and ice floes have reappeared in the Hudson River for the first time in years. In a wider perspective, parts of the Great Lakes Region saw a record November daily snowfall, Toronto experienced its biggest snowstorm on record, and parts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina enjoyed a generational snowstorm. Nothing is cast in stone. Model skill beyond two weeks is low. Forecast patterns can change. Sometimes abruptly. IMO, rather than riding an emotional roller-coaster with each turn of the models or allowing the most negative outcomes to drive winter's wonderful moments from memory, it's better to appreciate what we've already experienced and stay patient about what lies ahead. Spring will come. It always does. But Winter 2025-2026 may still bring additional cold and snowfall, even if the models cannot currently see the cold and snow at the long lead times involved.

I was referring to the ECMWF weekly maps in general. I prefer the ECMWF chart to vendors.

I went to Cape May for the storm. There were near whiteout conditions.

Yes, they're definitely a step back (continuing the trend from recent days). I actually prefer the daily data, as one can better evaluate what's happening than if one had to make guesses over 3- and 4-day intervals.

February 2015 had exceptional warmth in the western third of the CONUS.

It's impressive, especially when one considers that the cool anomalies over the Atlantic bring down the areal average. My guess is that near record/record warmth could be possible in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies.

I'm not sure what data was used to for the run-up in the price, much less the plunge. I suspect that the dramatic shift in the CFSv2 started the sell-off. The latest ECWMF weeklies were not yet available. In the larger scheme of things, this was not looking like a Top 3 coldest February since 2010 nationwide. Using AmWx's Top 10 forecasters from 2025, here were the expected February numbers: IMO, that consensus consistently beats most of what is posted on Social Media for long-range ideas, perhaps because there is no incentive to hype for clicks, views, etc. Here are the Top 5 coldest Februaries since 2010: #1: 2021 #2: 2010 #3: 2019

It's very unlikely. The air mass isn't sufficiently cold. One probably won't have NNW or N winds that are optimal for the strongest cold air advection.

IMO, the Wbell anomalies are too cold. If one moves up one category (e.g., -5 to -7 becomes -3 to -5), one will probably be closer to the final values. Having said that, the Northeast will very likely finish below normal. With the expected readings through February 14th, one would need a top 5-10 warm finish just to bring the anomalies to normal. So far, none of the guidance (even the CFSv2) is showing sustained warmth of that magnitude.

The NG market seems to be surfing the CFSv2's long-range outlook. From January 31: From February 1: The moderation starting around the 10th is real. The consistent theme is that the southern and central plains/West will remain generally warmer than normal but there could be a 7-10-day cooler period in the West. Wave lengths will be shortening beyond mid-month, complicating things and enhancing the level of uncertainty. I don't think either a mild or cold outcome in the East beyond let's say February 20th is a slam dunk. I'd still give greater weight to the ECMWF weeklies for a possible return of cooler weather, not necessarily severely cold weather, as there are some hints that the EPO and WPO could go negative sometime after mid-month.

Last winter, December-February were below normal. March as 4.1° above normal.

The EPS is suggesting that the PNA+ regime that commenced is approaching its end. Moreover, a WPO+/EPO+/AO- (neutral)/PNA- pattern will develop near February 10th +/- a few days. The evolution of this pattern will very likely mark the end of the severely cold pattern that has gripped the eastern third of the CONUS and seen multiple waves of Arctic air masses sweep into the East. It will likely also dent the persistently warm pattern that has dominated in parts of the West, at least for a time. The West will probably see a resumption of the warmth during the closing 7-10 days of February. The outlook for the eastern third is a more uncertain. A WPO+/EPO+/AO- (neutral)/PNA- pattern is typically a milder pattern, but not exceptionally warm one. Were the AO to go positive, the probability of more significant warmth would open up. Finally, there is the complication of shortening wave lengths that will increasingly become a factor mid-month and beyond. As wave lengths shorten, teleconnections lose their predictive skill. Instead, synoptic factors that can only be forecast at shorter lead times play a more prominent role.

Following this post, the temperature rose to 20° at 8:45 pm in Islip.

Sublimation.

Today, Islip recorded its third high < 20° this winter. That's the most such days since Winter 2017-18 when there were five such days.

Yes. That’s correct.

Newark had a low of -8 on February 7, 1855.

Updated PNS: 083 NOUS42 KMHX 011814 PNSMHX NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205-020614- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 114 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026 ...Total SNOWFALL REPORTS Through Noon... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...North Carolina... ...Beaufort County... 1 ESE Bath 17.0 in 1043 AM 02/01 Public 1 ESE Bayview 15.0 in 0947 AM 02/01 Public 3 S Old Ford 13.5 in 1015 AM 02/01 Public 3 E Belhaven 13.0 in 0939 AM 02/01 Public 1 NNW Belhaven 13.0 in 0947 AM 02/01 Public 4 N Cox Crossing 13.0 in 1133 AM 02/01 Public 2 SW Long Acre VFD 11.9 in 0900 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter 1 SW Washington 11.0 in 0850 AM 02/01 Public 3 SSE Blounts Creek 11.0 in 0943 AM 02/01 Public 5 SW Aurora 11.0 in 1000 AM 02/01 Fire Dept/Rescue ...Carteret County... 1 SE Peletier 19.5 in 1004 AM 02/01 Public Cedar Point 0.9 WSW 16.0 in 0500 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 2 ENE Broad Creek 16.0 in 0631 AM 02/01 Public 1 SW Newport 15.2 in 0700 AM 02/01 Official NWS Obs Otway 15.0 in 0827 AM 02/01 Public 1 WSW Broad Creek 15.0 in 0900 AM 02/01 NWS Employee Beaufort 15.0 in 0900 AM 02/01 Public 2 SSE Newport 14.5 in 0944 AM 02/01 Public 2 ESE Stella 14.2 in 1140 AM 02/01 NWS Employee 2 E Stella 14.0 in 1055 AM 02/01 Public 1 WNW Harkers Island 14.0 in 1123 AM 02/01 Public 1 SSE North River 14.0 in 1140 AM 02/01 Public Cape Carteret 1.5 NE 13.6 in 0700 AM 02/01 COOP Morehead City 13.0 in 0456 AM 02/01 Public Morehead City 2.9 WNW 13.0 in 0750 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 S Otway 13.0 in 0923 AM 02/01 Public 1 E Harkers Island 13.0 in 1020 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter Morehead City 5.7 W 12.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Emerald Isle 2.1 E 10.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 W Mitchell Village 10.0 in 0800 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter 1 W North River 10.0 in 0845 AM 02/01 NWS Employee Beaufort 3.8 N 8.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Craven County... James City 2.5 S 18.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 4 E James City 17.5 in 1104 AM 02/01 Public New Bern 7.3 ESE 17.0 in 0730 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 5 SSE Minnesott Beach 16.0 in 1049 AM 02/01 Public Trent Woods 1.2 ENE 15.5 in 0600 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 S New Bern 15.0 in 0918 AM 02/01 Public Bridgeton 14.2 in 0909 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter 1 ENE Trent Woods 14.0 in 0629 AM 02/01 Public 3 NNW Riverdale 14.0 in 0804 AM 02/01 Public Vanceboro 14.0 in 1120 AM 02/01 Public 1 SE Riverdale 13.5 in 0952 AM 02/01 Public 2 NNW Riverdale 13.5 in 1050 AM 02/01 Public New Bern 1.3 NNE 13.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Trent Woods 1.3 WNW 13.0 in 0725 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 WNW Coastal Carolina Regio 12.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Havelock 1.9 SSE 12.2 in 0800 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Dare County... 1 SSW Southern Shores 11.0 in 0730 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Duck 7.0 in 0730 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter 1 SSE Wright Brothers Nation 6.0 in 0929 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter Wanchese 2.8 in 0730 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Frisco 2.0 in 1140 AM 02/01 Public ...Duplin County... Beulaville 13.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 Broadcast Media Potters Hill 12.0 in 0823 AM 02/01 Public 1 WNW Albertson 12.0 in 0925 AM 02/01 Broadcast Media Potters Hill 12.0 in 0942 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter Wallace 14.8 E 11.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Faison 3.3 SSE 11.0 in 0900 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 E Rose Hill 10.0 in 1044 AM 02/01 Public Rose Hill 10.0 in 1135 AM 02/01 Public Magnolia 7.0 in 0715 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter ...Hyde County... Scranton 5.6 SW 12.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Sladesville 12.0 in 0957 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter Ocracoke 0.2 ESE 3.0 in 0800 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Jones County... Trenton 16.5 in 0706 AM 02/01 Public Trenton 15.0 in 0839 AM 02/01 Broadcast Media Wise Forks 13.0 in 0930 AM 02/01 Public ...Lenoir County... Pink Hill 16.0 in 0648 AM 02/01 Public Kinston 5.1 WNW 15.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Kinston 14.0 in 0703 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter 4 ENE Sandy Bottom 13.5 in 0728 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter 1 NE Kinston 13.0 in 0820 AM 02/01 Kinston 4.6 ESE 11.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS La Grange 5.5 NE 10.5 in 0720 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Pink Hill 2.5 NE 10.0 in 0810 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Martin County... 3 W Williamston 13.0 in 0951 AM 02/01 Public Williamston 9.5 in 0741 AM 02/01 Public Williamston 8.9 SSE 6.5 in 0741 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Onslow County... Swansboro 17.0 in 0718 AM 02/01 Public 2 NW Hammocks Beach State Pa 16.0 in 0730 AM 02/01 Public 3 S Silverdale 16.0 in 0900 AM 02/01 NWS Employee Half Moon 14.0 in 0922 AM 02/01 Public 1 SSW Holly Ridge 13.0 in 0646 AM 02/01 Public 2 NW Midway Park 13.0 in 0720 AM 02/01 Public Jacksonville 3.3 W 13.0 in 0800 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 3 NW Half Moon 13.0 in 1021 AM 02/01 Public 1 S Camp Lejeune Center 13.0 in 1121 AM 02/01 Public Holly Ridge 3.7 E 12.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Richlands 12.5 in 1119 AM 02/01 Public 4 SE Cypress Creek 12.5 in 1201 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter 2 SE Jacksonville 12.3 in 0630 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter 2 SSE Pumpkin Center 12.0 in 0907 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter Kellum 11.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter ...Pamlico County... Reelsboro 19.0 in 0727 AM 02/01 Public Grantsboro 18.0 in 0639 AM 02/01 Public 1 SE Minnesott Beach 17.0 in 0631 AM 02/01 Public Bayboro 14.0 in 0728 AM 02/01 Public Bayboro 3 SW 13.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COOP Merritt 1.5 WSW 13.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Pitt County... 4 WSW Greenville 15.0 in 0830 AM 02/01 Public 4 WNW Falkland 14.0 in 0956 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter Grifton 13.5 in 0923 AM 02/01 Public 1 W Shelmerdine 12.5 in 0730 AM 02/01 Public 1 SE Winterville 12.2 in 0900 AM 02/01 Public 1 SE Winterville 12.1 in 0921 AM 02/01 Public Greenville 5.7 NW 12.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 S Dowdy Ficklen Stadium 12.0 in 0729 AM 02/01 Public Farmville 0.8 ESE 11.7 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 NNE Bell Arthur 11.5 in 0755 AM 02/01 Public 1 N Ayden 11.0 in 0912 AM 02/01 Greenville 5.0 SE 10.5 in 0800 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 2 N Winterville 10.0 in 1031 AM 02/01 Public 4 SE Winterville 9.0 in 0914 AM 02/01 Public 2 NNE Winterville 7.5 in 1025 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter ...Tyrrell County... Gum Neck (COOP) 16.1 in 0700 AM 02/01 COOP Columbia 4.9 W 11.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 NNW Alligator 10.0 in 0554 AM 02/01 Public &&

The January 24-February 1 period has had a mean temperature of 16.9°. That is the coldest nine-day period since December 30, 2017-January 7, 2018 when the nine-day average temperature was 16.6°. Temperatures should begin to moderate tomorrow through Wednesday. One or two days could briefly rise to or above freezing. A few flurries are possible on Wednesday as a weak system brings a cold front across the region. Colder air should return on Thursday. A even stronger surge of Arctic air could arrive for the weekend, possibly accompanied by some snow flurries or snow showers. Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +26.51 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.273 today.