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donsutherland1

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  1. donsutherland1
    Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 231 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ072>075-176-178-211000- /O.NEW.KOKX.FA.A.0005.260721T1200Z-260722T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens- 231 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, including the following areas, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic and Western Union and southeast New York, including the following areas, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northern Queens, Richmond (Staten Island) and Southern Queens. * WHEN...From Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. Average rainfall totals will be between 1 and 2 inches, with isolated totals around 3 to 4 inches possible. Peak rainfall rates in the strongest storms could be near 2.5 inches per hour. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
  2. donsutherland1
    The timing is still very uncertain. Hopefully, there will be greater clarity during the 18z and 0z runs.
  3. donsutherland1
    The latest HREF is showing the potential for 1.50"-3.00" of rain across the New York City Metro Area. If this holds through the 0z cycle, it wouldn't surprise me if flood watches are put in place for Tuesday into Wednesday.
  4. donsutherland1
    The weekly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly rose to +3.6°C during the week centered around July 15. Only the 1982-83 and 1997-98 super El Niño events saw comparable or higher values. The last such anomaly occurred during the week centered around December 24, 1997 (+3.6°C). A strong El Niño is ongoing.
  5. donsutherland1
    A cooler regime, less smoky regime has settled into the region just in time for the World Cup final. The pleasant temperature regime will continue for an extended period of time. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s and lower 80s through the week into the start of the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some areas could pick up heavy downpours. The long-term outlook for the remainder of July has swung to near normal or even somewhat cooler than normal on the guidance. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.52°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -27.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.800 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0° (0.5° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  6. donsutherland1
    It's on course to become a truly monstrous historic event. Its impacts will be far-reaching and probably very severe.
  7. donsutherland1
    Showers and thundershowers are possible early tonight. Some of the thunderstorms could bring flooding downpours and strong winds. Highs will generally reach the lower 80s through the middle of next week. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. The long-term outlook for the remainder of July has swung to near normal or even somewhat cooler than normal on the guidance. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.52°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -23.95 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.735 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.5° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  8. donsutherland1
    An observation one doesn't off see in the NYC area from LaGuardia Airport this morning:
  9. donsutherland1
    Two photos of the smoke that returned. It's nowhere near as thick or at the low level as it was on Thursday.
  10. donsutherland1
    Narrative artwork for this morning: AQI: 196 (parts of the NYC area are above 200).
  11. donsutherland1
    Showers and thundershowers are possible during the weekend. Some of the thunderstorms could bring flooding downpours and strong winds. The greatest risk is tomorrow night and Sunday. Highs will generally reach the lower 80s through the middle of next week. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.52°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -27.09 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.683 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.0° (0.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  12. donsutherland1
    Smoky sunrise.
  13. donsutherland1
    Four photos of the smoke today:
  14. donsutherland1
    Smoky early evening:
  15. donsutherland1
    The continuing GOES-19 outage, which may continue into or even through this evening, is likely affecting HRRR smoke forecasts, as real-time satellite data is not present. That adds a dose of uncertainty into smoke conditions this afternoon and this evening. Here are recent conditions based on the observed data: Assuming a light westerly flow continues through this evening, some denser smoke will probably move into the New York City area this evening or early tonight.
  16. donsutherland1
    It’s the last picture before things went down. It was prior to my photo. It is uncertain when service will be restored.
  17. donsutherland1
    Advancing smoke shield just after a cloudy sunrise.
  18. donsutherland1
    Despite wildfire smoke, temperatures topped out well in the 90s across the region. Highs included: Atlantic City: 99° Bridgeport: 92° Islip: 92° New York City-Central Park: 95° New York City-JFK Airport: 98° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 98° Newark: 98° Philadelphia: 98° Temperatures will soar into the upper 80s to perhaps lower 90s tomorrow. Smoke could hold down the readings by several degrees across parts of the region. Friday will also be very warm before the temperatures ease for the weekend. Showers and thundershowers are possible during the weekend. The greatest risk is Saturday night and Sunday. Highs will generally reach the lower and perhaps middle 80s through the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.52°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -36.56 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.104 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 65% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.5° (1.0° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  19. donsutherland1
    From a little earlier this afternoon:
  20. donsutherland1
    Bronx:
  21. donsutherland1
    One can smell the smoke in the Bronx, as well, even as it's not as thick as that in Rhinebeck.
  22. donsutherland1
    Climate change is taking the United Kingdom into an entirely new and hotter climate. Airport runways, malfunctioning sensors, and urbanization have little to do with these changes. There are no asphalt tarmacs or dense urban metropolises in the offshore waters experiencing a growing number of marine heatwaves. Fossil fuel-driven greenhouse gas-induced warming is mainly responsible for these outcomes. The State of the UK Climate 2025 report and Met Office summary documents a country undergoing rapid and increasingly visible climatic change. 2025 was the warmest recorded year in the United Kingdom, while the decade from 2016 to 2025 was substantially warmer than previous reference periods. Record warmth was not confined to a single season: the UK experienced its warmest spring and summer, with every month from March through August ranking among the ten warmest on record. Extreme heat is also rising faster than average temperatures, bringing more days above 30°C (86°F) and more unusually warm nights, especially in southern and urban areas. The changes extend well beyond air temperature. Northwest European waters experienced an unprecedented number of marine-heatwave days, while sea level around the UK continued its accelerating rise. Rainfall patterns are becoming more uneven, with wetter winters, more frequent extremely wet months and the continuing threat of severe seasonal drought. Spring 2025 was England’s driest in more than a century, demonstrating that a warmer climate can intensify both flooding and water scarcity. Record sunshine and exceptionally low river flows further illustrated how several interconnected parts of the climate system are shifting at the same time. The report’s central conclusion is that the United Kingdom is no longer experiencing climate change primarily as a sequence of isolated records. It is entering a different climate regime. Conditions once regarded as exceptional, such as record heat, tropical nights, marine heatwaves, intense winter rainfall and prolonged dry spells, are becoming increasingly characteristic of the present climate. The greatest risks emerge not simply from gradual warming, but from the rapid intensification of extremes that place growing pressure on public health, water supplies, agriculture, infrastructure, ecosystems and coastal communities. The United Kingdom is not merely witnessing a temporary period of unusual weather. It is living through the consequences of a human-altered climate, with each new record serving as another chapter in a story whose ending will depend on how rapidly emissions are reduced. How rapidly emissions are reduced remains a matter of choice, and it's a choice with relatively well-known consequences drawn from a large body of scientific research. Meanwhile, 2026 is producing more hot extremes. For the first time on record, the UK has reached 35.0°C (95°F) in May, June, and July.
  23. donsutherland1
    Temperatures will soar into the 90s tomorrow and Thursday. The potential exists for a few locations, including Newark to approach or reach 100° at the height of the short period of heat tomorrow. Smoke could hold down the readings by several degrees. Friday will also be very warm before the temperatures ease for the weekend. Showers and thundershowers are possible during the weekend. The greatest risk is Saturday night and Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.52°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -36.56 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.083 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.7° (1.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  24. donsutherland1
    A brief push of heat from an impressive heat dome over the Central and Northern Plains that sent the mercury to all-time records of 109° at Salt Lake City and 110° at Billings, MT could send temperatures into the 90s tomorrow through Thursday. The potential exists for Newark to approach 100° at the height of the short period of heat. Friday will also be very warm before the temperatures ease for the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.52°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -38.53 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.360 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.7° (1.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  25. donsutherland1
    Temperatures will peak in the lower to middle 80s tomorrow before heat begins to push in from the Plains States. A brief push of heat from an impressive heat dome over the Central and Northern Plains that sent the mercury to all-time records of 109° at Salt Lake City and 110° at Billings, MT could send temperatures into the 90s during Tuesday through Thursday. The potential exists for Newark to approach 100° at the height of the short period of heat. Friday will also be very warm before the temperatures ease for the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.52°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -38.53 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.478 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.7° (1.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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