donsutherland1

When one's narrative is destroyed by the facts, some accept reality. Others, however, resort to conspiracy theories.

So, he created a fairy tale on video. As I provided a link and full context to the article he referenced, there's no need to comment further on his video.

He's flailing in a desperate attempt hold onto an unsustainable explanation. First, he claimed that it was an earthquake, even hours after the USGS revealed that the glacial collapse and debris flow triggered the shaking. Then it was past earthquakes that led to destabilization. Now he spins the latest development hoping to evade any climate links, but only exposing his lack of knowledge of both climate and geological processes. As noted yesterday, frost-wedging can lead to a fracturing, disintegration, and breaking of rock over time. Water finds its way into cracks and microfissures and expands as it freezes. The ice then melts when temperatures warm. This repeated cycle eventually causes larger cracks to develop and, ultimately, the rock to split or break. The warming climate in the high alpine regions of the Himalayas has accelerated this form of rock weathering. Finally, notice that he didn't provide a link to the actual story. He wanted to limit his audience to his opinion, depriving them of the full contents. Here's why: the story goes on to state: Mountain geographer Alton Byers of the University of Colorado Boulder has linked the disaster to climate change. He said permafrost, which has helped hold together high-altitude rock, ice, soil and glaciers for thousands of years, is weakening and becoming increasingly unstable. However, Cook and Shugar have not established a direct link between global warming and the bedrock failure. While they believe permafrost is melting and may be contributing to the destabilisaton of mountain slopes, they said further analysis is needed to determine the precise cause of the collapse. In sum, the article he references to dismiss any link to climate change actually does not rule out the role of climate change. All said, based on the full body of evidence and the insights from existing literature, climate change likely played a role, probably through a cascading set of complex processes (glacial melt, rock weathering, permafrost melt, etc.). Its precise role remains to be determined. The least likely scenario is zero impact from climate change. Further analysis will provide greater insight.

JFK had two such days and LaGuardia had five. There have been 21 years where Central Park had none in August. The most recent such year was 2023.

August finished with a monthly mean temperature of 75.8° in New York City (Central Park). That was 0.3° below normal (1991-2020).

It's unfortunate. Bastardi and Martz follow one another on X and both have audiences that overlap on climate change denial, so it's not that surprising. However, Martz is not a practicing meteorologist. He has no research to his name. Bastardi, even setting aside his positions on climate change, should stay with the proper meteorological terminology. He's damaging his professional legacy, which has already been hurt by his stance regarding climate change. It is what it is.

August finished with a monthly mean temperature of a preliminary 75.8° (0.4° below normal). That was 0.6° above the prior 1981-2010 baseline. It will turn somewhat warmer tomorrow with the temperature topping out in the middle 80s. Showers and thundershowers are possible late tomorrow and Wednesday. Excessive heat with highs in the middle and upper 90s will be just south of the region in such cities as Baltimore and Washington Tuesday through Thursday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.50°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -0.79 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.654 today.

It's winter in the southern hemisphere. The latest weekly value for Region 1+2 is +4.2°C, its highest weekly value, so far.

I will do so. It should be available by around September 5th. In terms of the 400-year period, he's overgeneralizing and cherry-picking from this study, which deals with spring in the western Himalayas. https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/2/132 He's also ignoring this information: Our reconstruction showed cooler conditions during 1658-1681 CE, 1705-1722 CE, 1753-1773 CE, 1796-1874 CE, 1900-1936 CE, and 1973 CE. Periods with comparably warmer conditions occurred in 1600-1625 CE, 1633-1657 CE, 1682-1704 CE, 1740-1752 CE, 1779-1795 CE, 1936-1945 CE, 1956-1972 CE, and at the beginning of the 21st century... The impact of climate change in the central Himalayan region of Nepal is more pronounced compared to other regions at similar latitudes... and hence Nepal is experiencing higher rates of temperature increase than the global average.... However, the observed warming rates show significant spatial variability, with a more pronounced warming trend in higher altitudes... Also, with regard to an added explanation that the rock beneath the glacier collapsed, some arguments are already being made that this disproves a climate link. Instead, it reveals the complexity of the processes. Frost-wedging from repeated freezes and thawing contribute to such developments. The water that finds its way into even microfissures expands as it freezes. It then melts when temperatures warm. This repeated cycle eventually causes larger cracks and, ultimately, the rock to split or break. The warming climate in the high alpine regions of the Himalayas has accelerated this form of rock weathering. For what it's worth, the New York Botanical Garden has a large glacial erratic called the "Split Rock." The rock ultimately split from repeated freeze-thawing cycles. Here's a photo of it from last winter. In short, frost-wedging might well have increased the fragility of the rock beneath the glacier leading to its fracturing.

September DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.8 1.0 0.9 3.8 3.3 1.3 0.4 1.5 0.2

In a few days, the August monthly anomaly will also be available on Copernicus. Even if the summer average were cooler than normal, it's worth pointing out that the toll taken on glaciers in a warming climate is cumulative. Glaciers don't reset automatically when things turn cooler. That's a point Bastardi either doesn't understand or chooses to ignore.

The dates are cropped off his map, which is bad practice at a minimum. June was near normal with an area of cool anomalies in the Nepal/Tibet region. July was mainly warmer than normal. Here are the maps for June and July from Copernicus: June: July: The region saw extreme heat during August 10-15, 2026. Kathmandu reached 32.3C (90.1F) on August 11, setting a daily record. Nepal's Department of Hydrology and Meteorology also reported that the mercury soared to 38.5C (101.3F) at Janakpur on August 13 and 37.5C (99.5F) at Lahan on August 15. Whether or not this round of heat was critical to destabilizing things remains to be seen. Finally, Nepal has been warming dramatically in recent years. Finally, Nepal has been warming somewhat faster than the climate model projections.

Yes. Your area, parts of the Mid-Atlantic, etc., will see excessive heat. Try to stay cool.

Highs will again reach the upper 70s and lower 80s tomorrow. It could turn somewhat warmer on Tuesday with the temperature topping out in the middle 80s. Showers and thundershowers are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.43°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -1.94 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.501 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 92% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Sunrise this morning:

Tomorrow through Monday will see highs reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. It could turn somewhat warmer to end August and start September. However, no excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August and into the opening days of September. Some showers and thundershowers are possible Sunday night into Monday morning and again on Wednesday and Thursday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.43°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -7.95 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.169 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 74% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Based on a long post, it's now clear that his video will be misleading. Point 1: Just because landslides/avalanches have occurred over tens of millions of years, does not automatically mean that one must not consider the warming climate and its impact on the most recent glacial collapse/debris flow. Point 2: Even after the USGS pointed out that an earthquake did not trigger the recent events, Martz continued to mislead. Apparently, his deception became unsustainable, so he has subtly altered his narrative in order to continue to blame seismic activity. Point 3: Jim Steele has no background in the relevant sciences (climate, glaciers, etc.) He is a biologist. Point 4: This is Martz's opinion. Here's the latest relevant science: "Rising ELA increasingly intersecting with the steep, narrow, thin ice, and heavily crevassed icefall areas drive fragmentation and disconnection." Point 5: Strawman argument. The issue concerns glacial response to today's warming climate. Point 6: This is common language used to dismiss or discount the rapidity of warming being driven by the burning of fossil fuels. Point 7: Another argument that is irrelevant to the recent event combined with the attitude, "Don't worry about it; nothing can be done, anyway. This is supposed to happen." In sum, any video will be badly misleading, dismissive of what actually occurred, and indifferent to the consequences of that event and the increased probability of similar future events as the climate continues to warm.

Tomorrow through Monday will see highs reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. It could turn somewhat warmer to end August and start September. However, no excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August and into the opening days of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.43°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -7.34 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.286 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I will repost what I posted on X in response to Martz's deflection, "I was not aware that climate change causes earthquakes and mudslides." The opening sentence fits. My response: "The CFACT policy analyst again shows how little he knows. A large chunk of melting glacier plunged into a valley, creating the 5.2 shock and triggering the devastating mudslide. Tectonic processes were not involved. Glaciers are melting due to climate change." It should be noted that Martz dishonestly posted his claim hours after the USGS made clear that the shaking was the result of a glacial collapse and debris flow, not the cause of those events. The USGS update was carried widely in the reporting on the catastrophe. In other words, he deliberately chose to mislead in order to push a false narrative.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely into early tonight. Some areas could still see flooding downpours. Following the frontal passage, tomorrow through Monday will see highs reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. It could turn somewhat warmer to end August and start September. However, no excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August and into the opening days of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.43°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -9.83 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.553 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Nonsensical social media claims are circulating that the Nepal/Tibet glacial flood was caused by an earthquake, not the impact of a warm summer and climate change. The USGS made clear that the shaking was caused by the glacial collapse/debris flow, not the trigger for those events. Two useful papers following the glacial flood in Nepal/Tibet. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818126002766 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1889/2021/ Despite social media claims, July had been warmer to much warmer than normal and August 24th had been warmer than normal. Some modestly cooler than normal air moved in on August 25th, but the stresses of long-term glacial thinning due to a warming climate and the impact of what has been a very warm summer proved too much for the glacier responsible. July 2026 Monthly Anomalies: August 24, 2026 Anomalies:

Showers and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow into tomorrow night. Some areas could see flooding downpours. Highs will top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Following the frontal passage, Friday through Monday will see highs reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. It could turn somewhat warmer to end August and start September. However, no excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August and into the opening days of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.43°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -10.99 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.645 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (0.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

August 2026 continues to close on the monthly temperature record. The gap is now larger than 0.1°C. The daily mark has fallen for 17 consecutive days, the fourth longest such streak. All of the four longest streaks and 15 of the 16 longest ones have occurred since 2023. The single exception is February 24-March 7, 2016 (13 days), which is in a three-way tie for 7th longest.

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and pleasantly cool. Highs will generally top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Showers and thundershowers could move through the region on Thursday night. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s into the weekend. No excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August and opening days of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.43°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -6.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.425 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (0.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Tomorrow and Wednesday will be mostly sunny and pleasantly cool days. Highs will generally top out in the upper 70s. Showers and thundershowers could move through the region on Thursday or Thursday night. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s into next weekend. No excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.43°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -7.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.152 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.