donsutherland1

Through 6 pm, rainfall amounts included: Bridgeport: 0.78" Islip: 0.07" New York City: 0.58" Newark: 1.00" White Plains: 0.50" Showers and periods of rain will likely continue into early tomorrow. Some locations could experience a thunderstorm. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely. Some locally higher amounts are possible. Following the storm, readings will reach the middle and upper 70s tomorrow. Wednesday through Friday will likely see highs in the lower 80s. Some showers are possible as a warm front moves across the region on Friday. A warming trend could commence during or after the next weekend. Some of the guidance suggests that hot weather could return to conclude June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -19.68 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.029 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8 (1.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

It will be interesting to see how this ultimately plays out. I suspect that the Sonoran Desert has yet to see its highest temperatures this summer, even if the forecast values for this week verify.

France sizzled under a heat dome that felt more like a fire dome today. More than 300 locations reached 40C (104F) or above, 123 all-time records were set, and an additional 453 monthly records were set.

All-time temperature records are again falling in France. As of early this afternoon (local time), 2026 had produced the tenth most all-time records for any calendar year (and second most in June). By the close of today, 2026 will very likely rank 6th highest. Seven of the ten years with the most all-time records have occurred since 2015.

IMO, the big issue right now is the disagreement between the JAMSTEC (much cooler ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly relative to the Region 3.4 anomaly) and other guidance e.g., ECMWF seasonal (similar or warmer Region 1+2 anomaly relative to the Region 3.4 anomaly). We're in June. What is fairly certain is that a strong/super ENSO event is likely. In addition, the Region 1+2 anomaly has been running higher than the Region 3.4 anomaly into early June. Given the forecast strength of the ENSO, strong or persistent blocking would be helpful if one is looking to maximize wintry prospects. Whether this will be more like 1877-78, 1972-73, 1982-83, or 1997-98 remains to be seen, especially this far out.

Tomorrow and Tuesday will be cooler days. Rain is likely on tomorrow into tomorrow night. Some locations could experience a thunderstorm. The potential exists for a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall. No excessive heat appears likely through at least June 25th. A warming trend could commence during or after the next weekend. Some of the guidance suggests that hot weather could return to conclude June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -5.98 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.096 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.9 (1.9° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The heat intensified in France today. All-time temperature records began melting from the relentless heat. Eleven locations set new all-time marks and 112 reached 40°C (104.0°F) or above. Paris-Jardin du Luxembourg reached 38.3°C (100.9°F), narrowly missing its June monthly record that was set on June 19th (38.4°C/101.1°F).

So far, 16 locations in France have reached 40°C (104°F) or above today in an ongoing climate change-enhanced extreme heatwave. Pissos has hit 41.5°C (107°F). While one waits for the final numbers from today and coming days that will rank this heatwave as among the worst in French and western European climate history, I created a digital artwork "It's A Crazy World" to symbolize humanity's unwillingness to confront the cause of ongoing climate change. A burning globe stands before a background of climate stripes, transforming scientific evidence into a stark visual record of the world’s ongoing warming. Europe glows with dangerous heat, while a thermometer planted over France reads 40°C. In the lower left, fossil fuel infrastructure appears almost toy-like against the scale of planetary disruption: small in form, but immense in consequence. At the right, a pale sculptural figure (detail from Jean-Baptiste Carpeaux’s "Ugolino and His Sons" that I photographed at the Metropolitan Museum of Art) evokes humanity’s mounting suffering under the pressure of a hotter world. This work confronts one of the central absurdities of the modern age. The evidence is overwhelming and unequivocal. The burning of fossil fuels is driving anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming, and that warming is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme heatwaves. Yet humanity continues to extract, burn, subsidize, and consume the very fuels accelerating the crisis with seeming indifference to the harm it is inflicting on the world and its ecosystems. The contrast between beauty and terror is deliberate. The climate stripes are visually elegant, but they record a destabilizing planet. The glowing continents are dramatic, but they signify real risk. The sculptural body, drawn from an image of suffering, gives human form to what can otherwise seem abstract. The quote from a young French climate activist anchors the work in moral urgency, insisting that the crisis is not distant, theoretical, or merely environmental. It is already a question of life and death. "It’s A Crazy World" is about knowing and continuing destructive business as usual anyway. It asks viewers to consider the madness of a civilization capable of measuring its own danger with precision while still choosing to feed the fire.

Absolutely. This ongoing experiment is demonstrating the cooling power trees provide in a warming world.

Through today, JFK Airport has had an average high temperature of 82.50° while Central Park's average maximum temperature is 81.85°. The only June that saw JFK Airport record a higher average high temperature than Central Park was June 2015 when JFK Airport edged Central Park 78.53° to 78.50°.

The weekend will conclude with fair and warm conditions. Highs will mainly reach the lower 80s. Monday and Tuesday will be cooler days. Rain is likely on Monday into Monday night. The potential exists for a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall. No excessive heat appears likely through at least June 25th. A warming trend could commence during or after the next weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -5.98 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.112 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7 (1.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Unfortunately, that's the case. Paris-Jardin du Luxembourg hit 101° today, surpassing the monthly mark of 100° set just yesterday. Even higher temperatures are likely during the weekend.

Fair and pleasantly warm conditions will prevail during the weekend. Highs will reach the lower 80s with some middle 80s across the region. Monday and Tuesday will be cooler days. Rain is likely on Monday. The potential exists for a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall. No excessive heat appears likely through at least June 25th. A warming trend could commence during or after the next weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was +4.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.021 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8 (1.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Parts of the region will see a shower or thundershower tonight. Not all areas will see rain. The wind will gradually diminish overnight. Tomorrow through the weekend will feature high temperatures mainly in the lower 80s. Monday and Tuesday will be cooler days. Rain is likely on Monday. The potential exists for a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall. No excessive heat appears likely through at least June 25th. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was +3.87 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.261 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8 (1.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

It will turn briefly warmer with a shower or thunderstorm possible tomorrow afternoon or evening. The temperature will top out in the middle 80s. The weekend will feature high temperatures mainly in the lower 80s. Rain is likely on Monday. The potential exists for a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall. No excessive heat appears likely through at least June 25th. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -0.91 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.502 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.0 (2.0° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Temperatures will again top out in the middle to upper 70s tomorrow. It will then become somewhat warmer to conclude the week. A shower or thundershower is possible on Thursday No heat appears likely through at least June 25th. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -3.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.250 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.1 (2.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Cooler weather has now returned to the region. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle to upper 70s tomorrow through Wednesday. It will then become somewhat warmer to conclude the week. No heat appears likely through at least June 25th. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -12.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.321 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.1 (2.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yes. That's true. With the warming climate, this year's mark will probably fall in the not too distant future.

Showers and thundershowers are likely thie evening and tonight as a cold front moves across the region. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong or severe, bringing strong winds, small hail, and heavy downpours. Cooler weather will return for at least the first half of the week. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle to upper 70s tomorrow through Wednesday. It will then become somewhat warmer to conclude the week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -24.88 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.712 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.3 (2.3° above normal). That would tie June 2026 the eighth warmest June on record with 1925, 1957, and 2021. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Newark has reached 90° for the 12th time this year. The old record through June 14th was 10 days. That record was set in 1930 and tied in 1986 and 1991. 1930 finished with 37 90° or above days; 1986 had just 22; 1991 had 41.

Very warm conditions will likely continue through tomorrow. Showers and thundershowers are possible tomorrow as a cold front moves across the region. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong or severe. Cooler weather will return for at least the first half of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -30.44 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.344 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.4 (2.4° above normal). That would make June 2026 the eighth warmest June on record. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Four photos from the New York Botanical Garden during a warm June day.

Yesterday saw record heat in New York City with LaGuardia Airport hitting 98° and JFK Airport coming in a close second at 96°. So far, there have been three days where Central Park has been New York City's coolest location: June 7: Central Park: 81°; JFK Airport: 86°; LaGuardia Airport: 83° June 11: Central Park: 91°; JFK Airport: 95°; LaGuardia Airport: 96° June 12: Central Park: 90°; JFK Airport: 96°; LaGuardia Airport: 98° The June 1-12, 2026 Average High Temperatures are below: Central Park: 82.4° (trees) JFK Airport: 82.7° (sea breeze prone) LaGuardia Airport: 84.4° Even as New York City has been warming over the most recent 30 years (1996-2025 vs. 1966-1995) during June, Central Park has seen its high temperatures cool on account of the increased tree cover. This outcome is not novel. This ongoing real-world experiment in allowing tree growth to proceed at Central Park's temperature station is producing results that are consistent with the outcomes documented in the empirical literature. One recent study concerning the cooling effect of trees can be found here.

Very warm conditions will likely continue through Sunday. Cooler weather will return for at least the first half of next week. Some rain is also likely early next week, but rainfall amounts could be fairly light. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -15.11 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.364 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.5 (2.5° above normal). That would tie June 2026 the seventh warmest June on record with 1984. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The temperature soared to 91° in Central Park. As a result, 2026 became New York City's first year on record with a high of 80° or above in March and then 90° or above in April, May, and June. Aside from a potentially strong to severe thunderstorm tonight, tomorrow will be another hot day. The temperature will likely top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Very warm conditions will likely continue through Sunday. Parts of the region could experience a heatwave. Humidity levels could make the heat particularly uncomfortable. In addition, strong to severe thunderstorms could develop tomorrow. Cooler weather will return for at least the first half of next week. Some rain is also likely early next week, but rainfall amounts could be fairly light. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -5.69 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.779 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.7 (2.7° above normal). That would tie June 2026 the fifth warmest June on record with 1899 and 2010. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.