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donsutherland1

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  1. donsutherland1
    I forgot a third reason he likely isn't employed in his field of study, and it's probably the most significant one: Profound dishonesty. Ethics still matters in many professions. Here's the latest example: He refers to the following document: https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf Notice that this document was prepared in 1998. That is a decade after the IPCC was established. At that time, scientific understanding of contemporary climate change and the predominant role of human activities were far better understood. If one wants to find the IPCC's original purpose, one has to go back to the founding documents. That was UNGA Res. 43-53. Its original mission was not limited to human-induced climate change. It covered climate change in its entirety.
  2. donsutherland1
    White Plains recorded its fourth consecutive low in the 50s. The last time that happened in July was during 2009. At that time, an El Niño was developing. Strong El Niño conditions are already present this year.
  3. donsutherland1
    Highs will generally reach the lower 80s through much or all of the remainder of July. The warmest spots could reach the middle 80s on occasion. Some showers or thundershowers are possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.82°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -29.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.591 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 82% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.6° (0.9° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  4. donsutherland1
    His understanding of climate/weather is poor. He knows day-to-day weather, but cannot put the pieces together in the larger context, much less as it relates to climate. That, IMO, is a big reason that he is not working in the profession he studied. His poor social skills are the other big reason. A quick comparison is in order for illustrative purposes: The Dust Bowl: - Occurred in a cooler climate regime (globally, the 1930s were relatively cool compared to recent decades) - Was a regional phenomenon from drought coupled with bad land use practices that amplified the severity of the drought, drying the soil even more and amplifying the heating June 2026 European Heatwave: - Occurred in a much warmer global climate (June 2026 ranked as the second warmest June on record) - Occurred within the context of rapid warming in Europe (climate change-forced quasi resonant amplification is contributing) - Spain is undergoing aridification - The extreme heat is an outcome one would expect from a rapidly warming climate Confusing or conflating the two events as he does means confusing weather with climate. The Dust Bowl demonstrates how regional weather and land misuse can produce catastrophe, whereas the 2026 European heatwave demonstrates how ordinary atmospheric variability now operates within a warmer climate system that makes exceptional heat more intense, extensive and likely.
  5. donsutherland1
    With temperatures topping out in the lower 80s, today was a great day to photograph some of the flowers and butterflies at the New York Botanical Garden. Five photos:
  6. donsutherland1
    Phoenix is on track to tie its all-time record highest minimum temperature today. Minimum temperatures of 90° or above and 95° or above have increased in frequency in recent years due to a combination of the urban heat island effect and anthropogenic climate change.
  7. donsutherland1
    I agree. I suspect that 1982-83 likely had at least a comparable streak. Unfortunately, I have found no daily data prior to 1991.
  8. donsutherland1
    Highs will generally reach the lower 80s through much or all of the remainder of July. The warmest spots could reach the middle 80s on occasion. Some showers or thundershowers are possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.82°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -16.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.546 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 75% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.7° (0.8° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  9. donsutherland1
    With today's -16.25, the streak, which began on May 11 is 75 days. The record is 100 consecutive days (January 3 through April 12, 1998). Daily records only go back to 1991.
  10. donsutherland1
    Coatesville 1SW has a strong cooling trend in the raw data, as you observed. However, there are multiple breakpoints. Adjusting for those breakpoints brings Coatesville's trend in line with regional trends. From Berkeley Earth:
  11. donsutherland1
    A cooler regime is in place and will remain in place through the remainder of July. Highs will generally reach the lower 80s through much or all of the remainder of July. The warmest spots could reach the middle 80s on occasion. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.82°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -12.70 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.537 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 73% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.7° (0.8° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  12. donsutherland1
    For an illustration on how Phoenixville has changed over time (Source: Berkeley Earth): These changes mean that simply using raw data across time creates an "apples-to-oranges" comparison when it comes to data integrity. Notice the larger difference in warming trend between the raw data and region and much closer figure between the breakpoint-adjusted data and the region. That's very close to the observed warming for Chester County and Pennsylvania for the 1895-2025 period: The raw data (0.11°C/century) is the clear outlier. That divergence from the regional and statewide data illustrates the flaws in treating a station's record identically despite breakpoints, station moves, etc.
  13. donsutherland1
    Yes, Phoenixville had a 4 pm time of observation:
  14. donsutherland1
    Philadelphia has actually had 14 years with 0 90° days in August. The most recent such year was 2013. Some of the guidance suggests that 90° heat could return late in the first week of August and continue during at least part of the second week of the month.
  15. donsutherland1
    With the strong and strengthening El Niño, the odds are probably against a return to 100s.
  16. donsutherland1
    This paper has some information on time of observation bias. Hundreds of stations once recorded afternoon resets. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/papers/menne-etal2009.pdf
  17. donsutherland1
    A cooler regime is in place and will remain in place through the remainder of July. Highs will generally reach the lower 80s through much or all of the remainder of July. The warmest spots could reach the middle 80s on occasion. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.82°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -17.36 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.144 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.6° (0.9° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  18. donsutherland1
    A “must read” piece on climate, data, and data manipulation: https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/hot-days-cold-thermometers
  19. donsutherland1
    A cooler regime is in place and will remain in place through the remainder of July. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s and lower 80s through the week and into the start of the weekend. A few more Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight into tomorrow. With an estimated 4.73" of rain as per precip.ai, White Plains smashed its daily rainfall record of 2.20" from 1973. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.82°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -17.36 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.673 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 74% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.6° (0.9° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  20. donsutherland1
    Very impressive.
  21. donsutherland1
    And now another station has gone offline. The increasingly frequent radar downtime and station data disruptions is disconcerting, not just from the perspective of tracking events.
  22. donsutherland1
    Westchester County Airport picked up 1.08" of rain in the past hour. One hour of heavy rainfall is missing from the Airport's reporting. Nevertheless, based on radar estimates, flash flood reports, and precip.AI, the daily record of 2.20" from 1973 has been broken. The precip.ai estimate is 3.70" has fallen there so far. Further, based on the precip.ai estimate through 1 pm, the missing hour saw 2.53" of rainfall at Westchester County Airport. That would eclipse the July monthly hourly record (2.15", July 18, 2005) and the all-time hourly mark (2.16", September 1, 2021). Data continuity matters.
  23. donsutherland1
    I agree. It's disappointing that equipment maintenance is no longer a priority.
  24. donsutherland1
    Westchester County Airport has heavy rain, but the sensor is not reporting amounts. Hopefully, it's a communication issue, not a sensor issue. There was a nearly month-long stretch earlier in the year where precipitation amounts weren't recorded.
  25. donsutherland1
    The futurecast is essentially useless at 36-48 hours. It's akin to a 120-hour NAM run (NAM ends at 84 hours, just so one has context for my analogy). Not surprisingly, last night's figures were dramatically lowered and are now in line with the guidance. https://pix11.com/news/local-news/projected-rainfall-totals-in-ny-nj-ahead-of-storms/
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