Boy the long range tracking sure is a challenge with the constant changes....good bad ugly rinse repeat. I try really hard not to worry about what the long range models are guessing and focus on each event as they come...if they come. It reduces my heartburn by enjoying the individual event vs the winter as a whole or what hasn't happened yet. Its also a challenge when different eyes see the same model run completely differently...that is in my opinion what causes the sometimes chaos in the long range threads. All my opinion people...you all can have your own.