OHweather

A few fine flakes have made it down at times, but mainly ZR and IP here so far. Untreated pavement has frozen over and the sleet is beginning to accumulate.

This was a spectacular fail of a storm. Just amazing. And it's adding up in recent years. The seasonal snowfall isn't terrible, though quite unspectacular outside of the northern Snowbelt in terms of larger events.

Think we have sleet until at least 3-4pm. Dual pole shows the changeover near Sandusky. We may get a half inch or inch of sleet.

The issue I'm seeing is the next northern stream shortwave is diving in from the NW just a little too fast. The low is developing good over the south, but that northern piece coming in gives it that last second nudge east, so we're on the outside looking in on the area of better snow tonight. It also probably jumps to the coast a little faster. EDIT: Didn't see your post from about 45 minutes ago. Yeah, it's the northern stream causing the storm to turn east last second and preventing a NW shift. Storm is developing good over the south so I think we woud've been hit really good if the northern stream shortwave was even a few hours slower. Ugh.

This clearly isn't going to work out. We'll see a changeover and messy travel but not more than a few inches of snow.

Posted this in the main thread, will post it here too. Went NW of the Euro as obs appear to suggest there is potential for some last minute NW bump, but I'm still not confident as a couple pieces of hi-res guidance (the ARW and HRRRx in particular) have a lot more snow, but the Euro/Canadian are both like 50-75 miles SE of where I have the swath of heaviest snow. Lake enhancement looks minor, and lake effect on Saturday also looks minor. Could that boost totals by an inch or two somewhere, sure, but thermals don't look good for LES with a very low inversion during the synoptic snow and even on Saturday as the storm pulls away.

We may have a last second bump NW as the storm actually develops. Everyone gets a good period of sleet tomorrow afternoon which may wreck the roads and have a big impact even if the snow underwhelms. For snow/sleet totals thinking 3-6" for Cleveland and 6-9" a little farther south towards Akron/Youngstown, but that's not a final forecast. When I make my final call maps this afternoon I'll post them, still don't have a great feel/handle for this storm. Thermals don't look great for LES behind the storm but maybe it adds an inch or two locally.

0.5" yesterday and just a minimal dusting last night. Event total of 2.9" so far. It looks like ice has solidified a good bit over the central basin, which along with the cold/dry airmass is likely limiting things outside of the moisture downwind of Lake Huron.

Was pleasantly surprised with amounts last night...2.3" here and probably a couple tenths since I measured. Flake size is already small which is unfortunate. Still hints we'll see an uptick this afternoon and evening with a little shortwave and perhaps some Huron moisture, so hopefully that pans out. Nice upstream connected band way west of Cleveland, probably producing the heaviest snow in NE OH right now.

Here's what I'm going with... The passage of a weak shortwave and surface trough after midnight into the very early morning hours on Thursday is expected to bring winds around from the W to NNW over Lake Erie. This should allow a brief burst of snow to push off the lake with EL heights of around 7k feet and steep lapse rates, good moisture, and some lift in the DGZ. A brief period of subsidence behind this wave, rapidly shifting winds, and a brief period of dry air/low inversion heights suggest any lake effect late tonight behind the first shortwave will be minimal. Think amounts will generally be 2” or less across the primary Snowbelt in NE OH/NW PA tonight and less than 1” in the Cleveland metro, with little farther south and west. Another little wave/vort max will pass mid-morning through the early afternoon on Thursday, bringing improved moisture and higher inversion heights along with some modest large scale lift. This, combined with a Lake Huron connection getting set up, should allow for a decent increase in snow Thursday morning and into the early afternoon. 850mb winds and RH from the GFS, NAM, and Euro all get the enhanced moisture from as far west as Cleveland east to near the OH/PA boarder in Ashtabula/western Erie County during this timeframe. This suggests that much of the primary Snowbelt in NE OH and some surrounding areas like eastern Cuyahoga County and perhaps northern Summit/Portage and likely Trumbull Counties will get in on this lake effect snow Thursday morning and early afternoon. EL heights rise to 7-8k feet with good moisture/lapse rates/lift in the DGZ, which is a moderate amount of instability and a suggestion of efficient snow. There is some directional shear below the inversion so any bands may be disorganized/transient, but upslope enhanced snow will likely occur for a few hours mid-morning into the afternoon. Rates of half an inch to an inch per hour will be broadly possible in the higher terrain, which may result in a 2-4” type accumulation in the favored areas through early afternoon in the higher terrain of the primary NE OH Snowbelt. Thinking 1-3” in NW PA Thursday morning/early afternoon in the higher terrain. Tough forecast in the secondary Snowbelt as the models show a wedge of dry air between upstream connections nosing into west and south of Cleveland. The models are initializing with a frozen lake upstream of the secondary Snowbelt. GOES16 imagery from this morning showed the gusty S-SW winds over the last day or so have pushed out and broken up a lot of that thin/newly formed ice, creating a lot of open water. Although the lack of an upstream connection will hurt, favorable snow growth and likely a lot more moisture flux than the models show could result in an inch or two of snow in the higher terrain of the secondary Snowbelt as well. Winds will slowly back a little bit (gain a more westerly component) Thursday afternoon, pushing the Huron fetch east of the east side of Cleveland and into more of NW PA. May see another inch or locally two of snow in the higher terrain of the primary Snowbelt in NE OH/NW PA Thursday afternoon between the morning burst and later burst. Another vort max will approach Thursday late afternoon and pass during the evening, resulting in another general increase in snow. By evening 850mb temps will drop to -23 to -24C, pushing the DGZ below the cloud layer and limiting snow growth. This will limit ratios and the efficiency of any snow accumulation. The NAM and GFS both have super-saturation with respect to ice at the top of the DGZ Thursday night, suggesting some snow growth, but the NAM especially tends to over-do surface dew points in lake effect situations, and any error means little good snow growth. Suspect ratios may hang up around 12-15:1 under any more coherent bands that could help push the DGZ a little higher through latent heat release, but that will still be down from earlier in the day (likely well over 20:1) and may not be realized in areas of lighter snow. The Huron connection into Ashtabula County and NW PA will likely see the heaviest snow, though with snow growth beginning to suffer rates will likely struggle to exceed half an inch to inch per hour. The rest of the higher terrain in the NE OH Snowbelt should also see an uptick, but again with an increasingly inefficient snow the rates will not be great. Have similar questions about the lack of snow in the secondary Snowbelt given some open water upstream of that higher terrain, and think the higher terrain in southern Cuyahoga/northern Medina and surrounding areas sees another little uptick late Thursday afternoon into the evening. With EL heights of near 8k feet at CLE and over 10k feet at ERI with instability becoming extreme and well-aligned winds, do think there could be some decent bursts of snow at times during the late afternoon and evening Thursday. Given lowering ratios, suspect the evening uptick will result in 2-3” new by midnight in the higher terrain of NW PA where the Huron band effects, 1-2” in the higher terrain of the primary NE OH Snowbelt west of the Lake Huron enhancement, and perhaps up to 1” in the higher terrain of the secondary Snowbelt though likely less for most. We lose some of the large scale lift the rest of Thursday night after late evening, but lake effect parameters don’t drop off much with extreme instability, OK but not great EL heights, decent moisture to 4-5k feet, and well-aligned winds. Winds do back a little bit more overnight Thursday night shifting the upstream enhancement more firmly into NW PA, but some upslope enhancement should allow mainly light snow to continue overnight in the higher terrain in NE OH and at least some light snow showers in the higher terrain south of CLE as well. Forecast soundings for CLE show considerably drier/colder low-levels than ERI, but given my belief there will be considerably more moisture flux east of the islands (and even some west) than modelled due to poor ice-cover initialization (and the fact that there is some moisture flux through ice, especially relatively new ice) I do not buy this. The air upstream of CLE is not anymore cold/dry than the air upstream of ERI, and given my belief the models are under-doing moisture flux upstream of CLE the soundings there may end up looking a bit more like ERI than the forecasts for CLE do. The models appear to have a faux convergence band into the eastern suburbs and Geauga County overnight due to a sharp temperature differential between ice/no ice north of Cleveland over the lake that I don’t think will be there. There may be some shoreline convergence that enhances snow a little bit into the secondary Snowbelt and perhaps Cuyahoga/northern Summit/southern Geauga given a flow around 290 to 300 degrees late Thursday night into Friday morning. Given poor snow growth though and a relatively short fetch/no upstream connections in this area, don’t think any of this snow in NE OH will result in more than an additional inch to locally 2” in the higher terrain between midnight-7am Friday. Better shot at around 2” or so in that timeframe in the higher terrain in NW PA where the moisture from Lake Huron allows for some better snow. The day Friday will probably be pretty dull. Expect general modest lake effect to continue with extreme instability and ok EL heights (pretty good at ERI) along with well-aligned winds, but with a dry airmass, short fetch, and poor snow growth only expecting 1 to locally 3” in the higher terrain in the NE OH primary Snowbelt, less than 1” in the secondary Snowbelt, and 2-3” in the higher terrain of NW PA where moisture from Lake Huron helps the cause some…maybe a local 4” in NW PA, but most likely less. One last pretty decent shortwave passes Friday night, bringing some large scale lift, increasing moisture depth some, and raising inversion heights a bit. Winds will also veer to a more NNW direction for a few hours behind it late Friday night. Expect a general increase in snow in the primary and secondary NE OH Snowbelts and also in NW PA downwind of Lake Huron for a good few hours Friday evening into the early overnight hours. Snow growth will still be poor, though if a stronger band develops it and ratios may locally improve. Extreme instability, EL heights rising to over 10k feet at CLE and ERI, and moisture depth increasing to 5-6k feet along with some lift from the shortwave should allow moderate snow to occur in the higher terrain, perhaps locally heavy downwind of Lake Huron. Some shoreline convergence may also direct a bit of a band into the secondary Snowbelt, on top of the Lake Huron enhancement into NW PA and general orographic lift snow elsewhere. The Huron band may briefly swing into Ashtabula County early Saturday morning, before everything shifts NE and inversion heights really lower on Saturday, finally winding down the snow during the afternoon. With poor snow growth not expecting more than 2-3” in the higher terrain of NE OH/NW PA Friday night into early Saturday from the uptick from the shortwave, expect for perhaps locally 4” or so if a good Huron enhanced band can develop over Ashtabula County or into NW PA. Adding up the period to period snowfall amounts does yield amounts potentially exceeding a foot in the heart of the NE Ohio Snowbelt and inland NW PA, with local amounts of up to 15 or 16” not impossible in NW PA. Amounts will be considerably less near the lakeshore. Given decent enhancement expected into eastern Cuyahoga County Thursday morning and enough terrain for orographic lift there through the rest of the event, think amounts of over half a foot will occur into eastern Cuyahoga. Similar story in some of the northern extremities of counties south of the Snowbelt. Will put 1-3” in for the secondary Snowbelt, though it’ll be apparent early on if there will be enough moisture flux for higher amounts there. If so, could see how it eventually adds up to around half a foot through Friday night in parts of northern Medina County.

Just looped GOES 16 since just before sunrise. Some holes in the high clouds early in the day allowed a quick glimpse of the ice. It appears the ice over the central basin east of the island moved NNE yesterday into today as the image NEOH posted suggested was starting to happen and broke up considerably. We could see the lake act like a pretty open lake into the Cleveland area and east side with a NW flow over the patchy ice.

I've become a bit more optimistic about this one actually...the NAM/GFS/Euro all appear to bring some moisture from Lake Huron west into the Cleveland metro from tomorrow morning through tomorrow evening before it begins shifting east...they bring the main connection into Ashtabula or western NW PA but like Saturday night have some moisture as far west as Cleveland. Instability profiles aren't great, but everything is favorable below 5k feet instability and moisture wise through Thursday evening. Despite low inversion heights, the models show good saturation of the DGZ through early Thursday evening before it gets too cold for snow growth. In addition, two little vort maxes move through between Thursday morning and evening, bringing a couple periods of enhanced upward motion to the region. Given good snow growth really helping the fluff factor I'm thinking 3-6" through Thursday evening in the higher terrain from eastern Cuyahoga County points east, with perhaps a little more if the actual Huron band can affect the higher terrain in parts of NW PA. Then tomorrow night through Friday night LES continues, but snow growth will be poor and moisture depth also not even to 5k feet. Think that where the Huron moisture goes (likely extreme NE OH and NW PA) can grind out up to 2-3" additional overnight Thursday night and then again on Friday. The Huron connection may maintain into NW PA Friday night enough for additional amounts. Thinking this could be a 4-8" type event for the higher terrain in NE OH and 6-12" in the higher terrain in Erie County and perhaps northern Crawford County in PA. I'll hopefully take a stab at a map this afternoon after work.

Despite it snowing all afternoon and into the evening half decently, didn't even squeak out a full inch of pixie dust. Through this evening totals across the Snowbelt ranged from 2 to as much as 7" (South Madison), and some spots probably added another inch or so tonight, so an advisory probably would've been good. We get some NW flow lake effect Wednesday night through at Friday. Should still have some open water left on that fetch, but parameters aren't as good as they can by and by Thursday afternoon through the remainder of the event it'll be too cold for good snow growth. My thought is maybe locations downwind of Lake Huron can marginally hit advisory amounts in the higher terrain(likely either Ashtabula or parts of NW PA) and see something like 5-8" over the course of 36 or so hours, with the second half of that being a slow low-ratio accumulation, with amounts of up to a few inches in the rest of the higher terrain in NE Ohio east of Cleveland. There may be enough juice for an inch or two in the higher terrain south of Cleveland into northern Medina, but with a short/icy fetch, mediocre parameters and poor snow growth not expecting much more in the secondary Snowbelt.

I have to imagine the odds of having the warmest years on record back to back are quite low...probably a combination of all the left-over heat from the very strong El Nino in 2015-16 and a generally warmer planet overall than when records began in the late 1800s. Pretty decent snow band has settled into a good chunk of Cuyahoga County, which is impressive since its fetch is entirely over ice. It's snowing good here with a visibility under half a mile, but flake size is less than stellar so it's not adding up too fast. Winds hardly move until mid-evening, but after 3 or 4pm we lose the modest large-scale lift from a weak vort max passing overhead and the thermodynamics degrade gradually, so the snow should start weakening some later this afternoon and then will lift northeast up the shore later this evening. We'll see if someone in Cuyahoga County can manage a few inches. Based on some obs it appears the rest of the Snowbelt is seeing some decent bands that may be getting overshot by the radar, Ashtabula and Erie have reported some decently low visibilities at times. Likely a similar situation with poor flake size keeping rates from getting out of hand in these areas, but hopefully someone can squeak out a 6" total somewhere.

Band looks like its sagging south as the winds turn. We'll see how far south it goes and if it holds together. Can see some moisture flux from northwest of Cleveland, we'll see if it's enough for snow into the metro area this afternoon. Was in Kirkland and got on I-90 at 306 in the heart of the band a few minutes ago and it's coming down, visibility near 1/8 of a mile. Thank God I'm not driving right now. Surprised CLE didn't go with an advisory for Lake/Geauga/Ashtabula.

I'm really glad yesterday's event did well IMBY for this reason. I will say, we had a number of minor to moderate events late in the frigid winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 when the lake was frozen, and a brief torch with rain and wind can really move some ice around, so we'll get more LES, but it's not quite the same without a fully loaded western basin.

Just some quick thoughts before I head out for the night... Winds will be WNW, however, am concerned the ice near the southern shore and also over the western basin extending into the central basin may allow the shoreline convergence to occur a little farther north closer to the remaining open water. Ice coverage over the western basin is now over 90% with a thickness of 6-12"+, which is thick enough to be more prohibitive of good heat/moisture flux. So, will cut off the snow farther northeast than I would for this type of flow with an open lake. Still, with some moisture flux and a good fetch from Lake Michigan aimed towards the Cleveland area, was nervous enough to include an inch or two for the Cleveland metro and expand the 2-4" a bit farther SW than the hi-res models suggest. With a well-aligned WNW flow from early Monday AM through the evening before the winds start backing and pushing the snow up the shoreline, will be a 12 or so hour window of good snow. Parameters are OK with EL heights near 8k feet and moderate instability. The airmass is quite dry but Lake Michigan pre-conditioning and reasonably light/well-aligned winds will make up for that a bit. The NAM shows super-saturation with respect to ice in the upper half of the very shallow dendritic growth zone and upward motion in the DGZ, so if the NAM doesn't bust too high with its dew points there should still be enough snow growth for decent ratios, though the airmass is quite cold and it's close, if dew points are lower than the NAM ratios may struggle outside of any stronger bnd. Given OK instability and a good WNW fetch without a ton of movement for around 12 hours, will go with 4-8" in the northern primary Snowbelt. There may be a convergence band possibly from NE Cuyahoga into southern Lake/northern Geauga/Ashtabula caused by the interface between mostly ice-covered and thicker ice and open water pushing the convergence a bit north of the shoreline. Where any more dominant bands develop over NE OH/NW PA will be where the best shot at closer to 8" will be. Think there will be a band that develops over the northern Snowbelt from Lake/Ashtabula/Erie Counties early Monday ahead of a vort max that then swings SW as winds go WNW by later morning. The band will likely lift NE Monday night then push over the lake by Tuesday. Could see a locally higher amount in Erie County as they'll have a longer window for snow through Monday night than NE OH. Happy New Year!

My 12 hourly measurement is 5.6"...I measured 5.6" between 7:15 and 10:45, including about 3.5" between 8:30 and 9:30. My storm total is up to 10", with 8.2" of LES in there. This will do just fine. Monthly total 27.8" which I'd imagine is above average for this area.

I've gotten over 5" since shortly before 7:30 when it started to really come down (and yes roughly 4" between 8:30 and 9:40). This is nuts. Visibility is less than 1/4 of a mile and it's raining down large dendrites. Hoping the band doesn't push to my south but it looks like it's about to. This is still fantastic either way.

As of about 8:30 I had gotten 1.5" from this burst in about 75 minutes, but it's probably coming down at around 2"/hour right now. Looks like it may maintain close to this intensity for another 2-3 hours before gradually weakening. Hi-res models suggest this general area may see some sort of snow into morning. We'll see what it adds up to. My 12 hour total was 2.6" pushing my storm total so far to 4.4"

Just started really coming down here. Wasn't much of an organized band, but a nice blob of heavy snow on the east side downwind of Lake Huron. Didn't expect it this far west, let's see if it lasts.

Murphy's Law I guess. Band is slow to move when it's to our north and races south past us when it finally budges. That surprised me a bit as well. I actually managed at least at inch out of the band, maybe an inch and a half, it was over me for a little over an hour and the snow was very efficient. The band has as expected become a bit less organized as it pushes south and the LES north of it isn't too intense right now. Lift and moisture increase late afternoon through mid evening as another vort max and trough push through. Given winds are only WNW now, I definitely expect another transient but intense band to form over the Cleveland area and primary Snowbelt later this afternoon and then swing south through the evening. I could see somewhere getting a quick 3-4" where the band initially develops for a couple hours then a quick inch or two as it pushes south. Decent lake effect may immediately develop behind the band for a brief period as good synoptic moisture lingers as the winds go NNW. Later this evening and through the overnight moisture does diminish but instability remains extreme and winds well-aligned, so snow should diminish outside of any lingering bands. A decent Huron connection still appears likely likely over Ashtabula County and possibly into eastern Lake/Geaga and western Erie Counties at times through Sunday. This could add at least several inches additional overnight tonight through Sunday to those areas, more if it stalls anywhere. Outside of that, the ice orientation and cutoff near Cleveland may allow some modest convergence into the east side later tonight Iater tonight into Sunday morning which may focus a secondary band into that area. That could be a secondary corridor to watch for a band with some additional accums overnight tonight into Sunday. The hi-res models appear to be under-doing moisture flux over the icier water so their QPF may be too low on the western edge of things.

1.8" so far. I can say this likely would've been a big event for the Cleveland area with a wide-open lake. We'll see what we can squeak out with the ice. Clouds are clearing blossoming over the ice so there's still some juice, hopefully enough. Also, nice pics from Erie. Luckily you've gotten to see the snow at work I guess.

I have mixed feelings about those products. Some offices have been doing them for a few years. Some offices (CLE included) just can't get them right. Right now their low end amount for Chardon is 11" and their high end amount is 13"...so there's a 80% chance that around a foot of lake effect will fall within a 2" range...not quite. Their probabilistic maps for the amounts are the same way with sharp drops from 100% to 0%...again not quite how it should look. And their forecast in this instance (and many other instances this winter) actually matches the 90th percentile...again, that shouldn't be the case. In Athens in January of 2016 (prior to "Jonas") a day out RLX had less than 1" as our low-end amount and like 20" as our high-end. When stuff like this happens I don't find these maps to be at all helpful to planners...not sure what goes into them and how much input the forecaster has, but other offices don't have these issues as frequently.

I hope there's enough juice. My story for this one is the central basin is still open and the ice out west isn't too thick yet...but it's not ideal. If we do get enough moisture flux off the lake, the winds going from WSW to NNW with a lot of instability and synoptic support should give many areas a shot at some accumulating LES, so hopefully, it works out. Obviously, the ice will expand and thicken a lot over the next 10 days, which will make it considerably more difficult to see good LES. Models are showing a nice W or WNW flow setup on Monday so I'm sure the Primary Snowbelt will cash in some more then.