Bubbler86

GGEM/CMC is also wet for the LSV. Glad we have the Euro and especially the Nam.

May I ask, do you do the hobby stormvista subscription or is there something better?

LOL. You saved me some time, thanks.

The new GFS just started running so maybe it can uncancel it.

Not sure it is much different than what the other models do since this is an elongated almost double barrel situation. It is not as much that the Low is moving wonky, the model is just keying on different areas of it at different panels. Makes it appear to go the wrong way at times. Some emphasize a coastal wave taking precedence while others, like the GFS, keep the flow coming from the southeast longer as they emphasize the northern piece. This is why the Icon shows the low going well south of us yet we still lose part of the column...the low is both south and north of us in my humble opinion.

Runs the low right over us or slightly East. Into the 40's.

It has not started off well through 72. In fact through 84 the GFS is an all out rain storm again. New England Special. BUT the way it gets there is similar to the Icon just a massive difference in surface temps.

RE: The Nam.

I know I need to zoom in sometimes. I am actually working and posting some of this stuff at the same time so I get lazy!

Yea there is no doubt we should be open for anything including an all snow scenario. I still think it interesting to discuss the apparent results of the current model.

We are moving toward the relatively rare 'Double Winter Advisory. We would have an active WWA for Thursday night at the same time as an active WSW for Saturday.

Here is the snowfall map. These maps are just for posterity sake. If this were to play out many of us would not be on here posting about it since we would be trying to stay warm with no power.

Hour 90 of the 18Z Icon is nothing short of an all out Ice Storm. Temps in the mid 20's with Sleet and or FRZA falling. This is after a nice thump of snow.

After we got past the GFS I think every other numerical model I have seen has indeed been pushing the SLP through VA (or even more south in the case of the Nam).

A good thump either way and really interesting question of whether anything gets thrown back as the panels would have gone on. Quite a convoluted scenario. Just about everyone who posts here cashes in. Pitt, Williamsport, PSU in Northern Maryland , even Central MD people.

The 18Z NAM is going to cause some to really put their thinking caps on. Brings what I can only describe as a double barrel low in the south east and lower Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon. Initially the northern piece is making a drive for our west but as Nam progresses it centers lower heights on the piece moving through the South East. It ends at 84 with 1022 LP in South Carolina and precip around the Mid Atlantic has lightened up and become scattered. Most here (and N Md) get 6-8" from that first thump waiting to see what the second piece does. I will add that I can only surmise that the scattered nature of the precip at hour 84 is due to what would be the dry slot from the dying former primary northern low as it scoots south of PA.

LOL

We are going to go out and try to visit the Curve this spring. I like trains but probably not on the same level as you. I need the shift as well so yes we are going to get it. I identify with the LSV because I have lived much of my life there but technically I am a bit south and west of it so while that EC map has people like Carlisle getting over a foot I am only getting 6-8" so for this specific issue we are in the same boat.

LOL. I figured you meant training people but I chuckled when I saw your first sentence. I am sure you have been to Horseshoe Curve several times.

So you work for a railroad?

You are right and I did the same thing as you but miscounted the blues. Thanks!

Add to the pile of less phased solutions...the JMA. Sends the SE corner of PA above freezing for a bit but still a major winter storm. 1.5 to 1.75 of qpf.

Check out deep thunder from the MA thread. No to this.

LOL, man you have been great but PLEASE do not stop your vacation for us.