Bubbler86

Icon is very similar to the 6Z Nam FWIW. The LP falls move South (well transfer really) and much of PA never gets above freezing. You can actually watch the orientation of the air flow change using the 2M temps maps mid storm.

Icon is going to have a much larger front end snow dump.

It is quite simple to my eyes...it keeps changing where it wants to put the focus of the lowest pressure falls. If it keeps it north then Northern Mid-Atlantic stay with a strong south win almost the entire event where the better solutions showed the southern vort being the more primary feature and changing the orientation of our winds as it pulled under us allowing the CAD to win out. DP's are great as the event starts so just a matter of how long we see flow from the south.

Yea that was why I was smiling. It showed a similar evolution to the primary last night and still put a foot down for the northern LSV but Mag posted a more accurate map showing it was really only a couple inches. Apparently TT snowfall maps have an issue near changeover lines.

Simply not enough blocking above to have the thermals deal with a sub 1000 low running across the mason-dixon. This is a plane jane rain storm with a little frozen at the front for the LSV if that happens. The TT snowfall map still shows Cumberland county getting a foot of "snow". LOL.

Nam has gone back to is 0Z look of keeping the northern vort the primary...unfortunately.

DP's in the low to mid 20's when snow starts.

Except for some strange snow hole in northern York county, it stuck with a general 1-2" snowfall. I think radar looks nice to the west though.

12Z NAM may show some 3" totals for this evenings snow.

DT and JB have that quote posted on their bathroom mirrors.

The NAVGEM caved to the southern vort premise. Again just following trends here but that is a good trend. Navgem would probably be all snow but less QPF.

I was thinking about this last evening. Many of us on here are model followers and then weather spotters when the event happens. Frankly we can (and quite often do) forecast snow storms, for our local area, better than professional mets and NWS offices. But when the snowstorms end we go back to our jobs and do not have to forecast the mundane 250 days a year that the mets do. It is then that they have to use climatology and analogs a lot more as there are hundreds of sunny days each year. Each of these snow storms is unique in some manner and requires leaning on guidance because any analogs are questionable at best.

Yea, I was not suggesting anything was amiss just reporting what I had read. In reality there is little support for anything over 2" except the HRDPS which bullseyes the West LSV with 3-5. Outside of micro climate forecasting, going for anything over 2" would be a weeine forecast.

Speaking of that, the NWS said no WAA is being issued. Snow going to start flying today before rush hour but I suspect wet roads until later in the evening. N MD did go with a WAA though.

I saw that forecast and thought it quite low. I thought we were past the days where NWS offices used the GFS for much

6Z Nam back to its transferring scenario and we all get a big winter storm. In fact every model I looked at showed a similar scenario except.....drum roll...the GFS. The GFS has been changing stories ever 6-12 hours.

Thanks for that. More good news. Big picture things are trending toward that LP staying south of us.

JMA looks promising at 72 hours with a nice CAD signature to keep us frozen for a good period so some good trends tonight despite the NAM jumping the LP quite a bit north.

I still contend most models are showing two lows with a transfer taking place to the one in NC....just too late on the GFS. Right, wrong, or in between just my reasoning.

CMC :-)

Also encouraging to me is the less amped look with the eventual primary being in NC on the GFS,. The damage is already done at that point for temps but still a step toward a solution that could be major vs. a slop fest.

GFS is better but still eventually tracks the low into PA so we lose most of the column.

Does anyone know where these rankings for the numerical models are located or have the most recent list? Does it break it down into LR, MR and SR?

Thanks you for some explanation. That snow map did not at all match the column and 2M temps the NAM showed.

Yea, the apparent disdain for the Nam is surprising to me. I fully expect the GFS to change drastically each run and never expect any consistency from it.