Bubbler86

The Canadian is going to torch us. Disappointing a bit as I one that is trend watching would have to say north at the moment.

JMA stays on our team though 850's break freezing east of I81

Icon=Talking about what kind of backup power source GFS=Honey, did you wash my shorts? I want to wear them this weekend.

The GFS is not going to be like the Icon. LOL. 540 Line is already well up into Pa at 54.

The American Dr. No will be here shortly. It is quite far north at 48.

We have a propane gas fireplace as a backup. Quite handy though if I close the flume the whole way one does get a bit of smell from the burning propane.

Just to clarify my statement was far eastern PA as in Philly and north but Icon does have some back end for Lancaster. The snow fall and precip maps are not out yet so I was guesstimating on the intensity of the radar maps.

I think if one wants the public to stay on their toes it will all depend on what the Euro shows. We love looking at different solutions and trying to meld them into list of possibilities but the media is Euro or bust.

Hopefully you are not trying to multi-task and are also posting on "another kind of board" right now. LOL

Icon drops a snow bomb on far Eastern PA and NJ as the low is departing. Probably 4-6" back end.

That's a good safe call right now.

Icon is very similar to the 6Z Nam FWIW. The LP falls move South (well transfer really) and much of PA never gets above freezing. You can actually watch the orientation of the air flow change using the 2M temps maps mid storm.

Icon is going to have a much larger front end snow dump.

It is quite simple to my eyes...it keeps changing where it wants to put the focus of the lowest pressure falls. If it keeps it north then Northern Mid-Atlantic stay with a strong south win almost the entire event where the better solutions showed the southern vort being the more primary feature and changing the orientation of our winds as it pulled under us allowing the CAD to win out. DP's are great as the event starts so just a matter of how long we see flow from the south.

Yea that was why I was smiling. It showed a similar evolution to the primary last night and still put a foot down for the northern LSV but Mag posted a more accurate map showing it was really only a couple inches. Apparently TT snowfall maps have an issue near changeover lines.

Simply not enough blocking above to have the thermals deal with a sub 1000 low running across the mason-dixon. This is a plane jane rain storm with a little frozen at the front for the LSV if that happens. The TT snowfall map still shows Cumberland county getting a foot of "snow". LOL.

Nam has gone back to is 0Z look of keeping the northern vort the primary...unfortunately.

DP's in the low to mid 20's when snow starts.

Except for some strange snow hole in northern York county, it stuck with a general 1-2" snowfall. I think radar looks nice to the west though.

12Z NAM may show some 3" totals for this evenings snow.

DT and JB have that quote posted on their bathroom mirrors.

The NAVGEM caved to the southern vort premise. Again just following trends here but that is a good trend. Navgem would probably be all snow but less QPF.

I was thinking about this last evening. Many of us on here are model followers and then weather spotters when the event happens. Frankly we can (and quite often do) forecast snow storms, for our local area, better than professional mets and NWS offices. But when the snowstorms end we go back to our jobs and do not have to forecast the mundane 250 days a year that the mets do. It is then that they have to use climatology and analogs a lot more as there are hundreds of sunny days each year. Each of these snow storms is unique in some manner and requires leaning on guidance because any analogs are questionable at best.

Yea, I was not suggesting anything was amiss just reporting what I had read. In reality there is little support for anything over 2" except the HRDPS which bullseyes the West LSV with 3-5. Outside of micro climate forecasting, going for anything over 2" would be a weeine forecast.