Bubbler86

I saw that and yea the NHC forecasts are always behind as well. At least the last few years, like you said. I suspect the NHC was letting the Euro weigh in some with their thoughts. Between the Hwrfurf GFS, HeyMon, and CMC all of Florida should certainly be thinking about what they will do if they are under a Hurricane Warning Monday. I checked the news papers down there and they are all hyping it.

And almost always before models prog it. The Euro is out of this discussion because it has had almost nothing right with the intensification but not sure anything else had it popping this quickly. I have so very little faith in model intensity forecasts.

Elsa is officially a Hurricane.

There must be a huge disparity between different parts of Lanco for the Spring and Summer. That area near Gap/Chester keeps piling it on. Blizz might have to loan them some of his grass mowing apparatus.

Saw this spotter report....is it saying he picked up 1.75" in 45 min? Did not know Lancaster County had rain on that level yesterday.

This includes 1/4-1/2" over the next 3 days.

Has really pulled away from the Florida coast destroy theory. Exactly as @Superstorm predicted. WAR...what is it good for...saving TPA

July going to start with a negative.

Looks like the hwrf takes Elsa out into the open Gulf. Eventually track is going really be determined by pressure from any prospective ridge push from the south east. Euro may give up on the dissipation theory.

.20 of rain this evening. Puts me over 1/2" for the day. Hard to tell the reds apart on radar estimated but looks like some 3+ inch 24 hour totals N/E of Chambersburg

Pretty decent rain here now.

18Z GFS gives a nod and tip of the hat to the 12Z CMC.

Even if we do not get rain its still an interesting item to track though it borders on moral issues when people are hurt. CMC takes it right over Surfside. Being on the west/clean side of the circulation will make us dry out more than usual anyway so it will not be a good thing for team grass unless it does inject moisture over us.

On an unrelated topic, just noticed CMC has the 'Cane and brings it up farther inland. I know the Euro and UK did not but forgot to check Ole' Canada.

Yea, I think its generally a different kind of world as to the average winter. I would have thought you would get more of those "white Christmas, pretty landscape snows" then we would ever hope for here. Interesting topic as you hear people say they would love to live in the Tug Plateau but I think I would get sick of it there. Being denied so often makes the victories more sweet. You do not see many Patriots fans fawning over a championship these days because they are so used to them (and Cowboys fans act like we have some recent ones as well though Dallas is on a LONG dry streak). But a have a team like Jax win the Superbowl and its an incredible event for them. PS-Lake Effect ...fake snow :-)

What is the highest single snow you have ever received there? '93 or something earlier? Without the copious moisture feed we can get, I bet it is can be tough.

You might not be able to stand it here in the winter. We spend an inordinate amount of time trying to hone in on the big dog which would screw you in the majority of set ups. Tough love. We have no issue screwing the beltways though. My perfect winter would be Westminster getting 75" and Baltimore held to a trace.

About 20 pages ago Canderson said we would be paying for this in October but maybe he meant October would be extra chilly after the extra hot first month of summer.

That is why I did not endeavor to look for it and I do have the link you gave me but I am working some in between posts. Thanks for brining it back.

Less than two months to go in summer.

People were "sweating out" a different worry back then Herr Canderson.

Thanks. My #2 was indeed wrong. #3 it is.

You are right, 1943 is hotter. A 16 obnoxious days over 90. Tim had that list earlier and was thinking our 75.5 got us into 2 but maybe it was 3. Maybe he has that data handy to compare again. 1943 was the year the penny turned steel! LOL.

That rain has our State Capitol in its sights now....but not sure it survives to there either. HRRR still develops several hours of steady rain over us tonight.

With MDT officially getting 10 days of 90 or higher last month, it is the only year in the 2000's to get double digit 90's in June. Only one other year was close with 9 in 2005. A few other years had 6 with a lot of years only having 3-4. One year had no 90's. What appears to be the only June to ever come in warmer, 1994, had 12. Both the 2005 and 1994 July's featured less days in the 90's than the June before. July 1994 only had one day over 90 the entire second half of July.