Bubbler86

CMC's run of Elsa into the Atlantic does a good job of beating down the ridge. She does not help us with rain but does damage to the High.

CMC is a similar mauling by El Presidente then a weak system into the Carolinas

All of this stuff is highly dependent on Elsa as well. If Elsa came into Central PA there are no 40's. There is nothing to say the ridge does not stay just far enough away to keep this interesting (and wet).

I did not post that one either. Nor the one showing 40's in PA Friday AM.

I will not post the one showing MDT not hitting 70 on Sunday.

Maine folks on a road trip. Mid July snow storm.

Op GFS gives the 'Cane the Fidel treatment and declares it minimal. (Edit, noticed a post on Trop board that said the Init. was way too low and the actual Ob's will not be ingested until the 18Z run)

Little humid over here but temps are a delight. A few showers about.

I got it . Lol

Another thing that is usually not very good. Hurricane seasonal forecasting. But anyone that think this could NOT gain Cat 4 or 5 strength is fooling themselves. It could go from 2-4 in the Straights of Cuba alone if it slowed down by then. So I agree that this part of the forecast is usually off.

I saw that and yea the NHC forecasts are always behind as well. At least the last few years, like you said. I suspect the NHC was letting the Euro weigh in some with their thoughts. Between the Hwrfurf GFS, HeyMon, and CMC all of Florida should certainly be thinking about what they will do if they are under a Hurricane Warning Monday. I checked the news papers down there and they are all hyping it.

And almost always before models prog it. The Euro is out of this discussion because it has had almost nothing right with the intensification but not sure anything else had it popping this quickly. I have so very little faith in model intensity forecasts.

Elsa is officially a Hurricane.

There must be a huge disparity between different parts of Lanco for the Spring and Summer. That area near Gap/Chester keeps piling it on. Blizz might have to loan them some of his grass mowing apparatus.

Saw this spotter report....is it saying he picked up 1.75" in 45 min? Did not know Lancaster County had rain on that level yesterday.

This includes 1/4-1/2" over the next 3 days.

Has really pulled away from the Florida coast destroy theory. Exactly as @Superstorm predicted. WAR...what is it good for...saving TPA

July going to start with a negative.

Looks like the hwrf takes Elsa out into the open Gulf. Eventually track is going really be determined by pressure from any prospective ridge push from the south east. Euro may give up on the dissipation theory.

.20 of rain this evening. Puts me over 1/2" for the day. Hard to tell the reds apart on radar estimated but looks like some 3+ inch 24 hour totals N/E of Chambersburg

Pretty decent rain here now.

18Z GFS gives a nod and tip of the hat to the 12Z CMC.

Even if we do not get rain its still an interesting item to track though it borders on moral issues when people are hurt. CMC takes it right over Surfside. Being on the west/clean side of the circulation will make us dry out more than usual anyway so it will not be a good thing for team grass unless it does inject moisture over us.

On an unrelated topic, just noticed CMC has the 'Cane and brings it up farther inland. I know the Euro and UK did not but forgot to check Ole' Canada.

Yea, I think its generally a different kind of world as to the average winter. I would have thought you would get more of those "white Christmas, pretty landscape snows" then we would ever hope for here. Interesting topic as you hear people say they would love to live in the Tug Plateau but I think I would get sick of it there. Being denied so often makes the victories more sweet. You do not see many Patriots fans fawning over a championship these days because they are so used to them (and Cowboys fans act like we have some recent ones as well though Dallas is on a LONG dry streak). But a have a team like Jax win the Superbowl and its an incredible event for them. PS-Lake Effect ...fake snow :-)