My declaration was based on Summer ending Aug 31 no matter what. :-). I am sure we have some 80's coming in Sept (at least). I actually do not drink Pumpkin Beer but its arrival heralds that of fall.
Well Summer is over in 13-14 days either way regardless of name...GFS has 2-3 low 90's days. Summer is basically over in the 'Ville now. Pumpkins Beers are out and aplenty.
I was going to say that the name mentioned in that post might just be the final punt to heat being short lived. I would close out summer at MDT with only one heat wave (using the definition Training found) at the end of June.
18Z HRRR looks like Fred is going to get to WV then block and move off to the east. Very winter storm like for stuff we have seen the last few years. 3K Nam still wants to make this a Pitt flooder.
It is very much dependent on Fred though. It's drought on if Fred slides down his dinosaur more to our west. That 8.4 up there is a 2 even without Fred.
Or maybe you are bubbler since we both like stats and posted at the same exact time? AND we are both rain starved. Fred goes much farther East than the GFS (on the euro).
I agree that the chances of this turning into an extreme drought (for those under drought designations) is pretty slim. Cashtown's figures for Adams county are pretty bad though. He has a negative 4" departure over the last 30 days.
Yea the wood was to the west of the LSV for the most part. Pitt rains. GFS is not overly wet either but still a soaking for most. Most of Fred well to the west.
12Z 3K still lays the wood on your guys then the low is blocked or transferred East across the state with torrential downpours for some. Wed would be a very wet day for most of PA.
Yes, thanks. None of the models go anywhere near that but a storm could do the trick. I am fairly far east though (parts of Cumberland county are west of me) so may not get much Fred action as of now.
A nice soaking heavy mist/light rain the last 30 mins over here. Not hard enough to get under the trees but giving the grass that is still alive a drink.