I would agree in that its more backed by the Euro. But the CMC is right with temps/atmospheric movement of air masses a lot. So its still not a done deal that the first half of December is warm.
That is why the stock market is tanking. Powell said they may hasten tapering due to the new variant. But back on to the GFS, by Mid Dec there is no "cold" air in the Continental US. Practically the whole country is near or above normal. Same for Southern Canada. That is the worst news of the run for me.
Its gotten into the mid 70's a lot so it would not be too far of a stretch but my comment was also for local temps. Maybe MDT gets to 76 but some local therms hit 80. All model talk at this point. Not sure it matters if its 68 or 78. All bad for snow.
Yep. I did not want to sully the light snow today too much but there actually could be a few 80's over here on on the day you speak (model talk, not a forecast).
I was expecting your wrath several times tonight so no harm, no foul. Trying to be positive now, the 18Z GFS is better than the frying pan pattern at 12Z but is still a rain parade with a 70's day so ground truth has not changed. Maybe in 6 hours.
Today's GFS has 70's at MDT (extrapolated from 18Z panel) which was the backing for my extreme comment. The real reason today's GFS is so bad, to me, is the lack of cold air anywhere in the Eastern US or Canada. It's an ugly look.