Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Nam and HRRR depictions of the snow overnight into tomorrow would be an LSV rush hour issue if it were colder.
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Thanks, without some type of southern moisture involvement, its not much of a story here.
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Today's GFS has 70's at MDT (extrapolated from 18Z panel) which was the backing for my extreme comment. The real reason today's GFS is so bad, to me, is the lack of cold air anywhere in the Eastern US or Canada. It's an ugly look.
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Bubbler 86'd the PBP's today. 0-2.
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A drastic change from 0Z. Models are jumping all over. A colder solution for early next week but outside of Boston, a dry solution. Basically a clipper flying by to the north.
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Gulf closed for business as the Euro rolls into the 6th. A change from 0Z.
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Its at least below freezing again. Dec is going to start off with a healthy positive departure per the Euro. The Canderson +8 departure would be in play on the GFS.
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Temps hit 30ish at MDT tonight then stay above freezing for a few days Highs mid 40's Wed, low 60's Thur, near 50 Friday. (LSV).
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This evenings snow on the Euro.
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I dunno, I am 0-1 today. I will see if I have time. The part of the GFS that was bad is outside the Euro's range. CMC took away the 9th snowstorm and replaced it with a mix storm on the 8th. Sloppy and not real cold.
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As in "Blizz is going to go off because there are highs in the 70's (near 80) and lows in the 50's"? Pitt is 66 degrees at 7AM on the 13th. Too astonishing to not mention, knowing it will change.
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Pretty crappy look later in the GFS. The real cold air is locked up in Western Canada. A drastic change from 6Z.
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On the prior run, the Northern Stream Vort was not as pronounced allowing the Southern Stream Vort to to have a more West to East Trajectory. Stronger Vort on 12Z tugs the Southern Stream up.
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Regardless if the timing works out for the 5-7th storm, as long as the maps keeping showing this look it will be interesting to watch every 6 hours. 12Z GFS phases them much too early for us as of today, but cannot quibble with timing this far out.
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GFS still advertising another Thursday 60ish day for some.
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I would not worry too much about it yet. I am flying out the 6th and not sweating it at this point.
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Flurrying on and off this AM. 38 degrees and breezy.
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33 on the dot to start Cyber Monday in Rouzerville.
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The Euro is not far off either.
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Central LSV spanking us westerners the last few days. I did get a mulch topper before it melted.
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The WGAL radar's algorithm is actually showing some of that precip falling as rain in Cumberland and Dauphin.
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HRRR is enthusiastic tomorrow night for what may be our (LSV) last shot at decent snow for a bit.
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LSV CAD. I was putting out lights today so the low 50's, sunny day was very welcome though the wind was still biting.
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MDT did not even get there. THV and LNS got into the mid 40's. MDT may be one of the lowest in the LSV today.
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Man, the GFS and Euro are not looking promising for a fast start to winter. CMC has us in the deep freeze the Dec 8th period with a different way of handling the progression of SLP's.
