On the prior run, the Northern Stream Vort was not as pronounced allowing the Southern Stream Vort to to have a more West to East Trajectory. Stronger Vort on 12Z tugs the Southern Stream up.
Regardless if the timing works out for the 5-7th storm, as long as the maps keeping showing this look it will be interesting to watch every 6 hours. 12Z GFS phases them much too early for us as of today, but cannot quibble with timing this far out.
Man, the GFS and Euro are not looking promising for a fast start to winter. CMC has us in the deep freeze the Dec 8th period with a different way of handling the progression of SLP's.
I am assuming the mountains shielded you from the warm air influx with the Low moving to our north. Its been a pretty mild Thanksgiving weekend here. Mostly 50's and 40's. Sat was a bit chilly.
We went above freezing around 11PM and have stayed there since. LOL. It was actually raining when I woke up...drizzle. HGR never hit freezing last night.
We broke out in sun late morning. The breeze is still chilly but out car topper snow was long gone before sunrise as the temps rose into the mid 30's overnight. Looks like HGR got to 49 or 50 as well.
The HRRR has degraded significantly from this AM. I think my 1/2" predicts are too much. And Dec 5th and 6th has gone from a Winter Storm frame to highs of 65-70. Yuck.
GA just finished a peach of a regular season giving up only 83 points in 12 games...incredible. One of the best defenses to ever play NCAA. They gave up less than 10 points in 8 of their 12 games and never gave up 20 points.