Bubbler86

If we do not get real fall weather the second half of October, I will be really surprised. In all those Octobers I looked through, doing some years in a row then jumping to another decade so a bit random, none had wall to wall above average. The ones that started like this October always relented to the season the second half of the month. Did not look at every single month but law of averages is on our side.

Doing some more old fashioned weather forecasting, check out the 12Z 10-19 GFS prediction. At this point we have transitioned away from the ridge dominated pattern and there is a moderate trough in the east. But there is no "cold air" so it gets cooler and temps are below normal but no hounds of winter cold to drain over us.

Yea, lots of variables in these different months. Then there is this one below which is downright ugly until it breaks on the 12th. Not really breaking down the whys just posting that even though most of us agree that it is warmer now than in the past (stats bear it out), there have been plenty of warm Octobers before and during our lifespans. Not just in the 2000's. I could post just as many Octobers where it stayed below 70 almost the whole month and had freezing night time lows. Unfortunately, we did not draw that lot so far. Trough forming in the west right now so we are not going to be happy until that translates east. Most people did not have A/C when this happened. 1959-10-01 78 68 73.0 11.2 0 8 0.71 0.0 0 1959-10-02 77 61 69.0 7.6 0 4 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-03 71 63 67.0 6.0 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-04 87 59 73.0 12.5 0 8 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-05 90 64 77.0 16.9 0 12 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-06 88 66 77.0 17.3 0 12 T 0.0 0 1959-10-07 79 65 72.0 12.7 0 7 0.04 0.0 0 1959-10-08 79 61 70.0 11.1 0 5 0.79 0.0 0 1959-10-09 83 68 75.5 17.0 0 11 0.03 0.0 0 1959-10-10 73 60 66.5 8.4 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-11 79 59 69.0 11.3 0 4 T 0.0 0 1959-10-12 64 46 55.0 -2.3 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-13 60 43 51.5 -5.4 13 0 0.27 0.0 0 1959-10-14 52 47 49.5 -7.0 15 0 0.19 0.0 0 1959-10-15 60 42 51.0 -5.1 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-16 65 36 50.5 -5.2 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-17 74 42 58.0 2.6 7 0 T 0.0 0 1959-10-18 62 42 52.0 -3.0 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-19 55 34 44.5 -10.1 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-20 72 36 54.0 -0.2 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-21 55 43 49.0 -4.9 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-22 56 43 49.5 -4.0 15 0 0.41 0.0 0 1959-10-23 70 48 59.0 5.9 6 0 0.19 0.0 0 1959-10-24 68 51 59.5 6.7 5 0 1.00 0.0 0 1959-10-25 60 43 51.5 -0.9 13 0 0.04 0.0 0 1959-10-26 55 43 49.0 -3.1 16 0 0.03 0.0 0 1959-10-27 52 43 47.5 -4.2 17 0 0.07 0.0 0 1959-10-28 53 34 43.5 -7.8 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-29 52 29 40.5 -10.5 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-30 56 33 44.5 -6.1 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-31 61 49 55.0 4.7 10 0 0.40 0.0 0

Sum 2099 1487 - - 281 69 3.75 0.0 - Average 67.7 48.0 57.8 2.0 - - - - 0.0 Normal 65.7 46.0 55.8 - 300 16 3.81 0.2 - 1954-10-01 85 70 77.5 15.7 0 13 0.02 0.0 0 1954-10-02 81 67 74.0 12.6 0 9 0.07 0.0 0 1954-10-03 81 63 72.0 11.0 0 7 0.01 0.0 0 1954-10-04 79 69 74.0 13.5 0 9 0.02 0.0 0 1954-10-05 74 58 66.0 5.9 0 1 0.32 0.0 0 1954-10-06 60 45 52.5 -7.2 12 0 0.82 0.0 0 1954-10-07 56 36 46.0 -13.3 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-08 61 31 46.0 -12.9 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-09 73 47 60.0 1.5 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-10 76 55 65.5 7.4 0 1 T 0.0 0 1954-10-11 85 53 69.0 11.3 0 4 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-12 88 61 74.5 17.2 0 10 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-13 85 61 73.0 16.1 0 8 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-14 79 64 71.5 15.0 0 7 T 0.0 0 1954-10-15 75 52 63.5 7.4 1 0 1.57 0.0 0 1954-10-16 60 45 52.5 -3.2 12 0 T 0.0 0 1954-10-17 57 40 48.5 -6.9 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-18 60 37 48.5 -6.5 16 0 0.02 0.0 0 1954-10-19 54 44 49.0 -5.6 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-20 51 38 44.5 -9.7 20 0 T 0.0 0 1954-10-21 60 39 49.5 -4.4 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-22 60 41 50.5 -3.0 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-23 71 39 55.0 1.9 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-24 74 51 62.5 9.7 2 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-25 67 42 54.5 2.1 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-26 70 45 57.5 5.4 7 0 0.05 0.0 0 1954-10-27 71 46 58.5 6.8 6 0 0.21 0.0 0 1954-10-28 58 39 48.5 -2.8 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-29 55 42 48.5 -2.5 16 0 0.38 0.0 0 1954-10-30 48 37 42.5 -8.1 22 0 0.26 0.0 0 1954-10-31 45 30 37.5 -12.8 27 0 T 0.0 0 Reliable observation times are not avai

Definitely extra warm lows right now but that 1973 list is not crisp fall weather either. I am in the camp that it is getting warmer as an overall average but I am not in the camp that this is end of the world warm October anymore. Its warmer than the normal but its well within range of what other warm Octobers have seen recently (look at 2013 for example...or 2007...or 1995.) If it is like this end of month, then we are into something that has not happened recently.

Another random October. Check out those highs. The lows were "better" but still it did not get into the low 40's until the 17th. Hard to argue that the lows have been not good recently. 61 here this AM. 1973-10-01 70 48 59.0 -2.8 6 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-02 70 60 65.0 3.6 0 0 0.71 0.0 0 1973-10-03 78 61 69.5 8.5 0 5 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-04 82 54 68.0 7.5 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-05 76 55 65.5 5.4 0 1 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-06 72 45 58.5 -1.2 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-07 67 46 56.5 -2.8 8 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-08 74 55 64.5 5.6 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-09 70 59 64.5 6.0 0 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-10 72 57 64.5 6.4 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-11 65 56 60.5 2.8 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-12 70 52 61.0 3.7 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-13 73 51 62.0 5.1 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-14 73 56 64.5 8.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-15 76 52 64.0 7.9 1 0 0.02 0.0 0 1973-10-16 63 45 54.0 -1.7 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-17 57 41 49.0 -6.4 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-18 55 40 47.5 -7.5 17 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-19 59 38 48.5 -6.1 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-20 70 46 58.0 3.8 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-21 62 38 50.0 -3.9 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-22 67 36 51.5 -2.0 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-23 67 40 53.5 0.4 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-24 72 41 56.5 3.7 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-25 72 40 56.0 3.6 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-26 73 41 57.0 4.9 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-27 69 47 58.0 6.3 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-28 57 42 49.5 -1.8 15 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-29 58 44 51.0 0.0 14 0 1.67 0.0 0 1973-10-30 50 38 44.0 -6.6 21 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-31 57 34 45.5 -4.8

That must mean it's over. They have an unparalleled history of being on the mark every time.

The Ocean

Has winter been cancelled? LOL

Lows near or possibly below 40. I will take it. Many nights in winter will not get that low. Will it happen? LOL, who knows. A snapshot of one model run.

So I cannot say Hey How are Ya, Hey How are Ya and just smile about it? GFS has low 40's several days in MDT starting 11 days from now. Could be gone in 6 hours but just mentioning. 4-5 nights in a row.

Maybe. I am more just trying to keep the feelings cool and not make this look like we are on the precipice of a volcano. Its not at all cold, chilly, crisp, or fall like but compared to Octobers of the last 15-20 years, its actually pretty normal and no where near the warmest ones up to this point. I mean even MDT has dipped to 48 at this point. That is something many Octobers do not have yet. I saw Octobers with lows in the 70s.

Was checking out Octobers recently and its been mainly mild over the last 10-20 years. Some worse than others. Check out 2013. First low 40's were October 19th but once it hit, it hit. This year was MUCH warmer than our current one up to this point. 2013-10-01 80 55 67.5 5.7 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-02 85 55 70.0 8.6 0 5 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-03 82 59 70.5 9.5 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-04 86 62 74.0 13.5 0 9 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-05 86 65 75.5 15.4 0 11 T 0.0 0 2013-10-06 85 66 75.5 15.8 0 11 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-07 75 53 64.0 4.7 1 0 0.74 0.0 0 2013-10-08 68 47 57.5 -1.4 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-09 62 46 54.0 -4.5 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-10 58 53 55.5 -2.6 9 0 4.02 0.0 0 2013-10-11 63 56 59.5 1.8 5 0 5.72 0.0 0 2013-10-12 70 59 64.5 7.2 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-13 69 53 61.0 4.1 4 0 0.01 0.0 0 2013-10-14 67 51 59.0 2.5 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-15 71 48 59.5 3.4 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-16 66 56 61.0 5.3 4 0 T 0.0 0 2013-10-17 71 58 64.5 9.1 0 0 0.25 0.0 0 2013-10-18 63 46 54.5 -0.5 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-19 62 41 51.5 -3.1 13 0 0.25 0.0 0 2013-10-20 61 41 51.0 -3.2 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-21 66 39 52.5 -1.4 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-22 60 39 49.5 -4.0 15 0 T 0.0 0 2013-10-23 51 36 43.5 -9.6 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-24 49 38 43.5 -9.3 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-25 53 36 44.5 -7.9 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-26 54 30 42.0 -10.1 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-27 56 35 45.5 -6.2 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-28 60 32 46.0 -5.3 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-29 59 36 47.5 -3.5 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-30 64 45 54.5 3.9 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 2013-10-31 67 52 59.5 9.2 5 0 0.05 0.0 0

65 and 63 here. Same story. Not hot but not crisp.

That may be using the old "normals" as that is a big difference on the lows vs. MDT. Highs are close. I took a random year of 2010 and the first date MDT hit the low 40's was on October 13th at 43. Some other years were lower/earlier or higher/later. I saw one year that hit 40 on Oct 1 and one year that stayed above 50 until the end of October.

The normal low at MDT today is 50.

Its great. Very little commercialization

The GFS actually did pretty well predicting the "coolish" temps this week. At least a few of the panels I looked at on and off.

If I were not so busy at work, I would be one of them. LIke I said, now is the best time to go to Gulf Coast beaches.

It's ok if you change your Icon to a TB Ray's logo. I will not be offended. LOL

12Z Nam does not answer the Saturday question....has the day look questionable but no specific qpf over the LSV.

Gene Hart :-)

64/63 at 10:30. Fall temps. Not fall DP's.

Jam some Elton John, Bee Gee's (Sargent Peppers Lonely Heart Club Band is an underrated movie) and Juice Newton?