Bubbler86

Long ago climate change?

So just saw an interesting stat. Days in first place this season for AL East teams O's-8 Yanks-1

Light rain/heavy drizzle and 67 here now. Enough to need the wipers on.

There is that 17th date again.

Quickie evening model runs have started. Nam still promises some Sat rain to some in the LSV. Just not a lot. Dying ULL transfers over to a new SLP off the SE Coast which retrogrades and vacillates after transfer. Nooners EC had scattered LSV rain both Sat and Sun with Sun before more S/E focused.

I think much of that can also be associated with precip amounts in the month or two leading up to fall. Over here I am already having to mulch/chop the leaves falling. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/drought-and-climate-change-could-throw-fall-colors-off-schedule/

Lots of things can happen in the afternoon....model runs, "other stuff", etc...

PS, Skip Ebert and I do not see eye to eye on some things so I do not visit Cumberland often.

I still think its one of those radar watching things but certainly no rain out. Rain "around the area".

So when in Cumberland county, I should never get caught in a fire around lunch, eh? Rescue will be delayed.

I picked it up from @pasnownut. So I cannot take credit it for it.

The board really needs a thumbs down reaction. If I throw a hot dog out there, you may get insulted and the cry face is just not "cool".

I thought you were too young to know that tune.

Half past nooners and parsing over area temps it seems many are in the low 70's with some scattered upper 60's. Hate to get my giddy up on and look at the GFS in case it is bad news.

Was training the trainer? Are you all good now on the best temp to maintain ice cream?

I love having the sub $100 bills in fall.

My A/C has not run much at all the last few weeks. Enjoying the lower bills. With that said, it has run so still not fall weather.

The TimB Fall Snow of 2021.

If we do not get real fall weather the second half of October, I will be really surprised. In all those Octobers I looked through, doing some years in a row then jumping to another decade so a bit random, none had wall to wall above average. The ones that started like this October always relented to the season the second half of the month. Did not look at every single month but law of averages is on our side.

Doing some more old fashioned weather forecasting, check out the 12Z 10-19 GFS prediction. At this point we have transitioned away from the ridge dominated pattern and there is a moderate trough in the east. But there is no "cold air" so it gets cooler and temps are below normal but no hounds of winter cold to drain over us.

Yea, lots of variables in these different months. Then there is this one below which is downright ugly until it breaks on the 12th. Not really breaking down the whys just posting that even though most of us agree that it is warmer now than in the past (stats bear it out), there have been plenty of warm Octobers before and during our lifespans. Not just in the 2000's. I could post just as many Octobers where it stayed below 70 almost the whole month and had freezing night time lows. Unfortunately, we did not draw that lot so far. Trough forming in the west right now so we are not going to be happy until that translates east. Most people did not have A/C when this happened. 1959-10-01 78 68 73.0 11.2 0 8 0.71 0.0 0 1959-10-02 77 61 69.0 7.6 0 4 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-03 71 63 67.0 6.0 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-04 87 59 73.0 12.5 0 8 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-05 90 64 77.0 16.9 0 12 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-06 88 66 77.0 17.3 0 12 T 0.0 0 1959-10-07 79 65 72.0 12.7 0 7 0.04 0.0 0 1959-10-08 79 61 70.0 11.1 0 5 0.79 0.0 0 1959-10-09 83 68 75.5 17.0 0 11 0.03 0.0 0 1959-10-10 73 60 66.5 8.4 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-11 79 59 69.0 11.3 0 4 T 0.0 0 1959-10-12 64 46 55.0 -2.3 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-13 60 43 51.5 -5.4 13 0 0.27 0.0 0 1959-10-14 52 47 49.5 -7.0 15 0 0.19 0.0 0 1959-10-15 60 42 51.0 -5.1 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-16 65 36 50.5 -5.2 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-17 74 42 58.0 2.6 7 0 T 0.0 0 1959-10-18 62 42 52.0 -3.0 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-19 55 34 44.5 -10.1 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-20 72 36 54.0 -0.2 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-21 55 43 49.0 -4.9 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-22 56 43 49.5 -4.0 15 0 0.41 0.0 0 1959-10-23 70 48 59.0 5.9 6 0 0.19 0.0 0 1959-10-24 68 51 59.5 6.7 5 0 1.00 0.0 0 1959-10-25 60 43 51.5 -0.9 13 0 0.04 0.0 0 1959-10-26 55 43 49.0 -3.1 16 0 0.03 0.0 0 1959-10-27 52 43 47.5 -4.2 17 0 0.07 0.0 0 1959-10-28 53 34 43.5 -7.8 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-29 52 29 40.5 -10.5 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-30 56 33 44.5 -6.1 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-31 61 49 55.0 4.7 10 0 0.40 0.0 0

Sum 2099 1487 - - 281 69 3.75 0.0 - Average 67.7 48.0 57.8 2.0 - - - - 0.0 Normal 65.7 46.0 55.8 - 300 16 3.81 0.2 - 1954-10-01 85 70 77.5 15.7 0 13 0.02 0.0 0 1954-10-02 81 67 74.0 12.6 0 9 0.07 0.0 0 1954-10-03 81 63 72.0 11.0 0 7 0.01 0.0 0 1954-10-04 79 69 74.0 13.5 0 9 0.02 0.0 0 1954-10-05 74 58 66.0 5.9 0 1 0.32 0.0 0 1954-10-06 60 45 52.5 -7.2 12 0 0.82 0.0 0 1954-10-07 56 36 46.0 -13.3 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-08 61 31 46.0 -12.9 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-09 73 47 60.0 1.5 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-10 76 55 65.5 7.4 0 1 T 0.0 0 1954-10-11 85 53 69.0 11.3 0 4 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-12 88 61 74.5 17.2 0 10 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-13 85 61 73.0 16.1 0 8 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-14 79 64 71.5 15.0 0 7 T 0.0 0 1954-10-15 75 52 63.5 7.4 1 0 1.57 0.0 0 1954-10-16 60 45 52.5 -3.2 12 0 T 0.0 0 1954-10-17 57 40 48.5 -6.9 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-18 60 37 48.5 -6.5 16 0 0.02 0.0 0 1954-10-19 54 44 49.0 -5.6 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-20 51 38 44.5 -9.7 20 0 T 0.0 0 1954-10-21 60 39 49.5 -4.4 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-22 60 41 50.5 -3.0 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-23 71 39 55.0 1.9 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-24 74 51 62.5 9.7 2 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-25 67 42 54.5 2.1 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-26 70 45 57.5 5.4 7 0 0.05 0.0 0 1954-10-27 71 46 58.5 6.8 6 0 0.21 0.0 0 1954-10-28 58 39 48.5 -2.8 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-29 55 42 48.5 -2.5 16 0 0.38 0.0 0 1954-10-30 48 37 42.5 -8.1 22 0 0.26 0.0 0 1954-10-31 45 30 37.5 -12.8 27 0 T 0.0 0 Reliable observation times are not avai

Definitely extra warm lows right now but that 1973 list is not crisp fall weather either. I am in the camp that it is getting warmer as an overall average but I am not in the camp that this is end of the world warm October anymore. Its warmer than the normal but its well within range of what other warm Octobers have seen recently (look at 2013 for example...or 2007...or 1995.) If it is like this end of month, then we are into something that has not happened recently.

Another random October. Check out those highs. The lows were "better" but still it did not get into the low 40's until the 17th. Hard to argue that the lows have been not good recently. 61 here this AM. 1973-10-01 70 48 59.0 -2.8 6 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-02 70 60 65.0 3.6 0 0 0.71 0.0 0 1973-10-03 78 61 69.5 8.5 0 5 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-04 82 54 68.0 7.5 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-05 76 55 65.5 5.4 0 1 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-06 72 45 58.5 -1.2 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-07 67 46 56.5 -2.8 8 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-08 74 55 64.5 5.6 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-09 70 59 64.5 6.0 0 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-10 72 57 64.5 6.4 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-11 65 56 60.5 2.8 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-12 70 52 61.0 3.7 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-13 73 51 62.0 5.1 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-14 73 56 64.5 8.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-15 76 52 64.0 7.9 1 0 0.02 0.0 0 1973-10-16 63 45 54.0 -1.7 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-17 57 41 49.0 -6.4 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-18 55 40 47.5 -7.5 17 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-19 59 38 48.5 -6.1 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-20 70 46 58.0 3.8 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-21 62 38 50.0 -3.9 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-22 67 36 51.5 -2.0 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-23 67 40 53.5 0.4 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-24 72 41 56.5 3.7 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-25 72 40 56.0 3.6 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-26 73 41 57.0 4.9 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-27 69 47 58.0 6.3 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-28 57 42 49.5 -1.8 15 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-29 58 44 51.0 0.0 14 0 1.67 0.0 0 1973-10-30 50 38 44.0 -6.6 21 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-31 57 34 45.5 -4.8

That must mean it's over. They have an unparalleled history of being on the mark every time.