Bubbler86

A chilly 22 this AM. @canderson, the meso's I just looked at have your whole trip just rain by 1-2PM Thurs....if that is time enough to go. Nam 3K has you rain in the AM.

The blocking is why the system is "stopping" in the midwest and reforming south of us. The reason we are not getting a MAJOR snowstorm despite a system going south of us is the lack of cold air around right now. No room for error. So, in short, the blocking is "working" but the air is moderate at best.

All I want for Christmas...is a storm where we can actually use the TT snow maps. TT is the smoother of the two between it and Pivotal...but the majority of the storms we have faced recently are not clean and the TT maps are worthless. So, this forces having to go to Pivotal and deal with the clunkier interface to get more accurate maps.

Decent period of ice but 2M temps above 30 for the LSV. Could be underdoing CAD for the main LSV.

That would suck for Christmas travel. (Ice)

I am still "suspicious" of a lot of snow for the LSV. Any kind of SW flow affecting the thermals worries me above.

This Kuch snow map backs the razor thin thought process. Long duration event. Thur AM into Friday afternoon.

Looks like the GFS depiction is sleet to start then over to snow/sleet mix as the layers cool a bit and precip comes down hard. Sounding say sleet/snow mix for that period. But a bump in the right direction for sure. Basically, saying mixed precip for quite a while.

12Z Rgem manages to bring the precip down hard enough to avoid the melt layer sleet fest for a period in the LSV. A game day/moment by moment situation but interesting.

Some close to 1" sleet totals just north of Harrisburg (3:1)

It is not your eyes, it is mine. I was looking on my phone and was looking at the wrong diagonal line (mixing ratio line tricked me). It is actually 35-40ish between 700 and 800, not near 50. Does not change the end result but thanks for correcting.

34 and cloudy this Am. NAM and RGEM both have quite a nice sleet event for 6+ hours Thur AM. Rgem in particular would-be accumulating sleet. This RGEM sounding for near MDT, as the event starts, shows temps in the 20's on the ground and near 50 at 700-800mb which means snow has to fall through it. Red line is temp and green is dewpoint.

Almost expect him to get one eng per game now.

It was a reply to another football post, but the quote did not show for some reason (see below). Eagles obviously did great today too.

OUR football team....good and bad. Incredible goal line stand then 98 yard drive.

No Euro posts meant the outcome was obvious without looking...but I looked anyway. Ugg. Road Trip to Sayre.

Bubbler is not giving in, FWIW. Just talking about what 12Z was spitting out. At least we are tracking.

There is a Christmas Eve, Eve snowstorm but I was speaking to the late week opportunity. It comes fairly close to us again and is a mix to rain on the GFS and CMC. All rain on Icon. GFS and CMC both take it near Philly which is no bueno with the moderate air around.

Globals, Op's wise, do not see to care what you would like.

Brightening up here...up to 40

Hey, even if this late week thing does not evolve correctly, the GFS (only commonly used model that goes out to Christmas) has 2-3 more chances for a White Christmas event. Right now, only the Euro sig shows snow in parts of the LSV for late week and man it is a forum splitter. I do not buy this though as to snow in the Western LSV when you have a decaying (or Wiggum Rotting) SLP in MIchigan and a developing SLP in Havre De Grace. Sleet, sure, but hard for me to fathom the entire column survives a Western Low that close when the developing low is on our doorstep.

Rain here as well. 34. Our south standing took us out this AM,

Congrats on scoring this Am.

Yep, if the low escapes while strengthening.