Bubbler86

We have reached the stage where if one posts a model and it is bad, retorts come back about nowcasting, but if good like this is for Lanco and York down to near Adams, people rejoice. Nam12 and 3 hammer Lanco

What did I "Tell you" LOL. Edit oh the snow storm on the 31st.

Ditto here right now. All rain has mixed out but it is 34 degrees.

I should have clarrified that my Rap comment was about IMBY and near Mitch.

It is not even snowing up at Penn Mar. Just came down the hill. There are probably some flakes mixed ibn. Not worried about it, this stuff is bonus anyway.

Yea, and if you look a the radar from the HRRR and Rap, the Rap is much more in tune with reality right now. The rap does not drop a lot of snow as it doe snot have much from a coastal CCB but just a comment to show the HRRR is did not initialize well so hard to take its numbers too seriously. Still light rain here

I hate to model bash but those that say it cannot be used for qpf totals may be right....but I think it can be used for location of qpf, at least considered.

I bet we get a meso discussion for the area where these earlier returns are forming right now (in PA.) Also nice to see the blue circled area filling in the dry slot a bit (In VA).

12Z HRRR was not great south of us as a dry slot and low movement from N NC put the fall line right along the M/D.

This fact is why I do not totally get any fretting about weather in Feb. We have had almost wall-to-wall winter temp wise but it has not been fully conducive to snow as most of us sit BN right now and the oppressively dry cold temps/next week are not helpful for snow as progged. If one wants snow we need to mix up the equation and and hope for some good timing.

The low, very weak, is in N NC right now which is a nice nod to the models who did not fall for the Canadian (and early HRRR) tricks of having in it WV. 12Z HRRR shows light rain/mix changing to all snow across the southern parts of the forum 11AM-noonish. I believe the low position is perfect for us as dynamic cooling and the approaching front (referenced by Mitch) will cool us down just in time. Would be better for the Northern part of the forum if the low was a bit more amped but then Lanco would suffer.

The Nam 12 has not been able to show qpf properly for this system. Beyond my salary table to understand why. 3k has been fine with qpf depictions.

First small area of qpf is rain here. 35 degrees. Radar looks fine to me. If we did not have modeling to know what is progged, it would not.

Tik tok shutting down is nice publicity stunt for them. Administration told them they could stay on pending Trump

Gfs still puts the hammer down in lanco especially southern half as to snow rates. Thunder snow opportunity down there. Plenty of snow Adams, York as well.

Yea it is a step up from that for us souther. . But the big totals are pretty much all gone now. I think I saw 10" not far from voyager a run or two ago.

Rgem another step down but still in Wsw range for most of Lsv. Definitely behind icon now.

Icon basically holds serve with a bit of a bump for lanco. On phone but quick look is 1-2 more se Lsv. Icon one of the higher progs right now.

Fv3 with some nice ccb action to puff up totals for Easters. Not impressive out this way.

36/35 headed toward 9PM.

0z HRRR delays the snow a bit vs. 18z. For LSV and near.

The last RAP was shockingly low. Hope the 0Z's hold ground some.

They may have accidentally mixed their percentage of chance/highest end possibility maps with their forecast maps.

3-11" is a nice buffer.