Bubbler86

It still looks like winter on the mountain especially from afar. Very few trees blooming and no leaves...just a little red.

Pretty much the same here. I was thinking of it last weekend but glad I held off in case we get no rain.

Still on hold at the MD line. Lol. If we do not see rain the next 36 hours, I am punting past mid April.

Just noticed the red hot CMC (hot with getting rural colder temps) has 3 consecutive nights of LSV near or below freezing starting Sat night.

Today is 10+ degrees higher than any other day on the entire GFS run...many days are 30-40 degrees cooler. This assumes the cold front gets here "on time" tomorrow>

Banging an 84 here. It is hotter than a Texas Port-a-Potty.

There is a TMI in MDT and some TMI in Texas as well now! LOL

You are going to use the Fv3 and the RRFS and like it! Signed-US Weather conglomerate.

RRFS

It would be great, but the Nam is not inspired so hard to plan for it.

Just as much my fault for not mentioning. I actually thought for this evening it looked more decent that I was thinking we would have.

That is for this evening, but the line tomorrow does not look much different.

It will indeed take almost the whole month being quite warmish to get the over IMO re: no 2-3 day periods where the highs are the 50's and lows in the 30's especially later month where average highs are near 70. Hope you are wrong, and you lose some shekels.

The 3K has some fairly severe looking cells later today. My problem with the above...both forecasts are models, who is to say the MJO forecast was better than the ground truth? This past winter the MJO forecasts moved drastically day to day especially late in the season. If the MJO was fact then yea, this would be a more valid point but, IN MY OPINION, picking one or the other to believe has a component of guessing.

I am very much hoping we all get rain tonight or tomorrow.

Anyone want to open a last 2/3 of Spring thread?

That royally sucks.

To me it looks like the last 2-3 summers worst case scenario looks. Don't put away the firewood though. Peter Cottontail may have to hop down a frosty trail this weekend.

Hopefully this does not mean we skip Spring, I know it is over 1/3 over but that is summer right there.

I will add that if we had simplified and rallied around the Fv3 this winter our digital snows totals would be even higher than what they eventually came in at.

https://gsl.noaa.gov/focus-areas/unified_forecast_system/rrfs Rapid Refresh Forecast System GSL, NCEP/EMC, and other partners are working together on a project to design a single-model, convection-allowing, ensemble-based data assimilation, and forecasting system called the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS). This project aims to develop advanced high-resolution data-assimilation techniques and ensemble-forecasting methods while supporting the unification and simplification of the NCEP modeling suite around the FV3 model. Within the NOAA model unification effort, the RRFS represents the evolution of the NAM, RAP, HRRR, and HREF systems to a new unified deterministic and ensemble storm-scale system. This new system is targeted for initial operational implementation in late 2023 as a planned replacement for the NAMnest, HRRR, HiResWindows, and HREF. While the standalone regional (SAR) FV3 model is being developed for convection-allowing forecasting of a limited area (CONUS), other possible components of the RRFS are being tested now in the experimental, WRF-based High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE). Experimental runs of the HRRRE at GSL are focused particularly on: Improving 0-12 h high-resolution forecasts through ensemble-based, multi-scale data assimilation Producing spread in 0-36 h ensemble forecasts through initial-condition perturbations, boundary-condition perturbations, and stochastic physics.

My team was doing well but my third baseman Ke'Byran has pushed them into a bit of a drought lately.

So, the last sentence is fantasy not sports. Got it! LOL.

Yoda posted the Sterling AFD Severe discussion in the MA thread. Canderson may have to live vicariously on this one. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A lead wave ahead of a frontal system over the Ohio River Valley will approach the area late Wednesday. Ridging will crest over the area before heights begin to fall by Wednesday night. Given the increasingly warm and unstable airmass, as well as some added lift from terrain and the approach system to the west, a few thunderstorms could develop mainly west of the Blue Ridge late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Sufficient shear will be present for storm organization, so a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms can`t be ruled out. The frontal system is set to cross the region on Thursday. Cooling air moving in aloft above unseasonably warm and moist air near the surface will likely result in moderate instability. This coupled with moderately strong shear and forcing along the approaching front should result in widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could become capable of producing severe weather in the form of damaging wind gusts and large hail. Tornado potential is a bit more uncertain given relatively weaker flow closer to the surface, but there is enough shear for supercells. Also, any boundary interactions (terrain/bay/river breeze circulations) could enhance this activity. Temperatures will be very warm with highs well into the 80s and lows in the 60s to around 70 east of the mountains Wednesday into Thursday, 20 to 30 degrees above normal and more akin to summer than spring. Temperatures will take a tumble Thursday night behind the front.