I would think D1/Moderate drought expands into LSV this Thursday. Long Range GFS has plenty of rain and white rain snow (if a storm form on the front next weekend) chances so I personally am not super worried yet. If we get into May and it is still this dry, then I am worried.
PS-A chilly 41 this AM.
Here is the GFS from 7 days ago for today. It actually showed some panels, later in the week, with 80's today but this is basically a signal for 80 being mid to upper 70's at 1PM. For tomorrow the GFS shows it in the upper 50's at MDT at this time.
Today was always supposed to be in the 80's as to the last few days when I looked. Yesterday got a bit warmer than modeled earlier in the week. When I last looked Mon or Tue looked about 10-15 BN. Lows in the 30's and highs not far from 50.
MR models are indeed mostly dry for the work week after tomorrow AM. Maybe a shot of something Tue night. Just noticed there is a dense fog advisory out for the LSV. MDT now at an avg temp of 58 on the dot. Good shot they go past 58.3 today to give MJS the good call.
Most of the stuff I saw has the front getting to the LSV near midnight. 3K did have some cells on that panel. HRRR and RGEM were not much. Ironically this scenario of a storm driving up to the Lakes played out quite a bit during the winter and often underwhelmed. Maybe a different result in Spring.
The overrated sun angle is not too strong yet. The Easy Bake Oven days of May are almost here. Looks like MDT only got about 1/10th of an inch. Tomorrow night better work out for the Thursday Drought Map may change one color worse.
I wish the front was oriented slightly different for tomorrow night. Worrisome for the LSV.
Estimated rain for today is off as it says I got 3/4" and I got nowhere near that...I got a grass watering 1/3". Says you got 1/3" as well.