Yea, models look wet, but they have for months with big let downs. 1/2-1 1/2" still shown for Sat afternoon and evening. The models are not saying 50 day after day just a a few days near 50. Others closer to 60. All of this after Sat.
They may lower them if the two models I quoted are right. 3 of those days the 1PM temps are in the 40's on the GFS and CMC. It does not get anywhere near 70 the rest of the month (after Sat) on those two runs this AM but of course, 6 hours from now it could change. Suffice to say though it appears likely the big heat is done for a decent stretch after this next front.
The high at MDT so far this month is 86. Sat is the last day it gets above 60 on any GFS or CMC panel the rest of the month. Those are 1PM temps so if exactly right it may sneak above 60 some days.
Seems it never rains in southern PennsylvaniaSeems I've often heard that kind of talk beforeIt never rains in Pennsylvania.But girl, don't they warn ya?The wind blows, man it blows.
I think it has been slowing leaking backwards but also believe most see some rain. The GFS yesterday had everyone getitng over 1" (LSV). Now it is about 1/2 of that. CMC still very wet.
MDT sitting at a rounded 4.5" below normal for 2023. Probably one of the biggest deficits this time of the year in their history. They have only had about 6 1/2" of precip for the year so far.
I would think D1/Moderate drought expands into LSV this Thursday. Long Range GFS has plenty of rain and white rain snow (if a storm form on the front next weekend) chances so I personally am not super worried yet. If we get into May and it is still this dry, then I am worried.
PS-A chilly 41 this AM.
Here is the GFS from 7 days ago for today. It actually showed some panels, later in the week, with 80's today but this is basically a signal for 80 being mid to upper 70's at 1PM. For tomorrow the GFS shows it in the upper 50's at MDT at this time.