Bubbler86

I have not had a ton of time to look that closely. Severe does not interest me as much as others. I need to mow my yard today (#2) though so I hope nothing shows up here. I just looked and the HRRR does have hints as you suggested.

I think he travels locally in his own Candersonmobile

The 70MPH club

This whole line of convo could go on for quite some time...we have nooners coming up soon.

Only the hotbox could turn this convo into one saying how warm it is out. LOL

I am worried you may have just inflated him about taking susky pics that he might try to get a good one leaning over! If there are beavers would that be a beaver shot?

He may be going out to water that corn on the island.

It is quite warm feeling out. One of the warmest so far. Enjoy.

I think I do not trust the models right now so not counting on any of the rain shown after tomorrow afternoons stuff. But do think we are well BN Sun-Wed or Thur with 2 forst/potted plant advisories.

GFS and CMC both showing the coming well BN period letting up a little earlier than yesterday so the last 2-3 days of April could get up to normal or above as to the race for any records (model talk, not a forecast). GFS has a rain aided high in the mid 40's next week.

All this hotbox stuff distracted us from this on the 12Z GFS next week. No sleet so using the TT maps as they are faster to load.

81 here. The hotbox must be taking a breather. LOL

PS (second one today), if I ever see you with a ruler in your hand I will assume someone is about to get their knuckles cracked! LOL

I did say matching so you were right I just did not stop and add exact again. I had rounded off MDT to 6.5" so far this year and forgot it was rounded.

I was thinking close not exacts but yea.

So technically we are matching their driest start though almost surely going to get over that mark this weekend.

That was the coincidence part....almost like something topped over this week. So many seemingly rare things happening. If this is the new norm then this is going to suck.

It has been a brutal week. Almost happening so often that one wonders if it is a coincidence. Some 4-5 times this week as to ones that made national headlines.

You keep great records, do you recall the last time we were in a drought in April?

Maytowns own Sammy Davis Jr!

PS-I hope we do not start talking about Canderson's Hotbox....FWIW,

It would not have surprised me to see some days averages dropping a half degree if we have lows in the 30's and highs in the 50-55 range. I did not do the math, but you are right, we would need 8 such days to drop it 4 so I overstated that a bit. Still think we shave off quite a bit IF modeling is right.

Increasing wildire risk in Central Florida with the introduction of extreme drought designation on the west side. In contrast, continued dryness and warm weather prompted deterioration in parts of the central and northern Florida Peninsula. Moderate to severe (D1 to D2) drought expanded northward in the northern Peninsula, and extreme drought (D3) was introduced in the western Peninsula from Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties northward through Citrus County, where 90-day rainfall was 5.5 to 8.5 inches below normal. The Keetch-Byrum Drought Index – primarily a fire-risk indicator – was unseasonably high in this area, and the 3-month Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI, which describes the net surface moisture budget relative to climatology) was below the 2 percentile threshold in most areas, including all of Hernando and Citrus Counties. The National Fire Center reported nearly 60,000 acres consumed by wildfires across the South Protection Region (roughly the southeastern quarter of the contiguous states) during April 7 to 13.

A large portion of the LSV is now in moderate drought. Hopefully Saturday will relieve this a bit. Northeast Drought Summary Small areas of moderate to heavy precipitation brought localized improvement to a few areas, particularly parts of the DelMarVa Peninsula. But most locations received light precipitation at best. As a result, areas of D0 and D1 generally expanded. Moderate drought pushed into northern Virginia and adjacent sections of Maryland and West Virginia, and also expanded into northern New Jersey and parts of adjacent New York and southern New England. The National Fire Center reported over 10,000 acres consumed in the East Protection Region (roughly the northeastern quarter of the contiguous states) from April 7 to 13, with additional wildfire activity reported in the lower Northeast during the ensuing 5 days. Most areas from the Middle Atlantic Region through New England reported precipitation shortfalls of 1.5 to 3.0 inches during the past 60 days, with some locales reporting less than half of normal.

Right now, we stand at the 3rd warmest April ever and will probably jump to number one by Sunday Am but model forecasting would suggest we could make a run to drop out of the top 20 over the following 7 days as number twenty is on 3-4 degrees from number one.