Bubbler86

I was thinking close not exacts but yea.

So technically we are matching their driest start though almost surely going to get over that mark this weekend.

That was the coincidence part....almost like something topped over this week. So many seemingly rare things happening. If this is the new norm then this is going to suck.

It has been a brutal week. Almost happening so often that one wonders if it is a coincidence. Some 4-5 times this week as to ones that made national headlines.

You keep great records, do you recall the last time we were in a drought in April?

Maytowns own Sammy Davis Jr!

PS-I hope we do not start talking about Canderson's Hotbox....FWIW,

It would not have surprised me to see some days averages dropping a half degree if we have lows in the 30's and highs in the 50-55 range. I did not do the math, but you are right, we would need 8 such days to drop it 4 so I overstated that a bit. Still think we shave off quite a bit IF modeling is right.

Increasing wildire risk in Central Florida with the introduction of extreme drought designation on the west side. In contrast, continued dryness and warm weather prompted deterioration in parts of the central and northern Florida Peninsula. Moderate to severe (D1 to D2) drought expanded northward in the northern Peninsula, and extreme drought (D3) was introduced in the western Peninsula from Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties northward through Citrus County, where 90-day rainfall was 5.5 to 8.5 inches below normal. The Keetch-Byrum Drought Index – primarily a fire-risk indicator – was unseasonably high in this area, and the 3-month Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI, which describes the net surface moisture budget relative to climatology) was below the 2 percentile threshold in most areas, including all of Hernando and Citrus Counties. The National Fire Center reported nearly 60,000 acres consumed by wildfires across the South Protection Region (roughly the southeastern quarter of the contiguous states) during April 7 to 13.

A large portion of the LSV is now in moderate drought. Hopefully Saturday will relieve this a bit. Northeast Drought Summary Small areas of moderate to heavy precipitation brought localized improvement to a few areas, particularly parts of the DelMarVa Peninsula. But most locations received light precipitation at best. As a result, areas of D0 and D1 generally expanded. Moderate drought pushed into northern Virginia and adjacent sections of Maryland and West Virginia, and also expanded into northern New Jersey and parts of adjacent New York and southern New England. The National Fire Center reported over 10,000 acres consumed in the East Protection Region (roughly the northeastern quarter of the contiguous states) from April 7 to 13, with additional wildfire activity reported in the lower Northeast during the ensuing 5 days. Most areas from the Middle Atlantic Region through New England reported precipitation shortfalls of 1.5 to 3.0 inches during the past 60 days, with some locales reporting less than half of normal.

Right now, we stand at the 3rd warmest April ever and will probably jump to number one by Sunday Am but model forecasting would suggest we could make a run to drop out of the top 20 over the following 7 days as number twenty is on 3-4 degrees from number one.

Yea, models look wet, but they have for months with big let downs. 1/2-1 1/2" still shown for Sat afternoon and evening. The models are not saying 50 day after day just a a few days near 50. Others closer to 60. All of this after Sat.

They may lower them if the two models I quoted are right. 3 of those days the 1PM temps are in the 40's on the GFS and CMC. It does not get anywhere near 70 the rest of the month (after Sat) on those two runs this AM but of course, 6 hours from now it could change. Suffice to say though it appears likely the big heat is done for a decent stretch after this next front.

The high at MDT so far this month is 86. Sat is the last day it gets above 60 on any GFS or CMC panel the rest of the month. Those are 1PM temps so if exactly right it may sneak above 60 some days.

The HRRR from this Am had highs 65-70 for the LSV

Now is when we find out if MU is lurking.

This EC look does not inspire confidence. Saturday afternoon affair. Rain out of the LSV before dark.

Seems it never rains in southern PennsylvaniaSeems I've often heard that kind of talk beforeIt never rains in Pennsylvania.But girl, don't they warn ya?The wind blows, man it blows.

Was there any mention of forst where you heard that?

I think it has been slowing leaking backwards but also believe most see some rain. The GFS yesterday had everyone getitng over 1" (LSV). Now it is about 1/2 of that. CMC still very wet.

MDT sitting at a rounded 4.5" below normal for 2023. Probably one of the biggest deficits this time of the year in their history. They have only had about 6 1/2" of precip for the year so far.

Snow in May and June does count. :-)

Super late Nooners. Sunny and a chilly 57 due to a brisk wind.