Bubbler86

To me it looks like the last 2-3 summers worst case scenario looks. Don't put away the firewood though. Peter Cottontail may have to hop down a frosty trail this weekend.

Hopefully this does not mean we skip Spring, I know it is over 1/3 over but that is summer right there.

I will add that if we had simplified and rallied around the Fv3 this winter our digital snows totals would be even higher than what they eventually came in at.

https://gsl.noaa.gov/focus-areas/unified_forecast_system/rrfs Rapid Refresh Forecast System GSL, NCEP/EMC, and other partners are working together on a project to design a single-model, convection-allowing, ensemble-based data assimilation, and forecasting system called the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS). This project aims to develop advanced high-resolution data-assimilation techniques and ensemble-forecasting methods while supporting the unification and simplification of the NCEP modeling suite around the FV3 model. Within the NOAA model unification effort, the RRFS represents the evolution of the NAM, RAP, HRRR, and HREF systems to a new unified deterministic and ensemble storm-scale system. This new system is targeted for initial operational implementation in late 2023 as a planned replacement for the NAMnest, HRRR, HiResWindows, and HREF. While the standalone regional (SAR) FV3 model is being developed for convection-allowing forecasting of a limited area (CONUS), other possible components of the RRFS are being tested now in the experimental, WRF-based High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE). Experimental runs of the HRRRE at GSL are focused particularly on: Improving 0-12 h high-resolution forecasts through ensemble-based, multi-scale data assimilation Producing spread in 0-36 h ensemble forecasts through initial-condition perturbations, boundary-condition perturbations, and stochastic physics.

My team was doing well but my third baseman Ke'Byran has pushed them into a bit of a drought lately.

So, the last sentence is fantasy not sports. Got it! LOL.

Yoda posted the Sterling AFD Severe discussion in the MA thread. Canderson may have to live vicariously on this one. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A lead wave ahead of a frontal system over the Ohio River Valley will approach the area late Wednesday. Ridging will crest over the area before heights begin to fall by Wednesday night. Given the increasingly warm and unstable airmass, as well as some added lift from terrain and the approach system to the west, a few thunderstorms could develop mainly west of the Blue Ridge late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Sufficient shear will be present for storm organization, so a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms can`t be ruled out. The frontal system is set to cross the region on Thursday. Cooling air moving in aloft above unseasonably warm and moist air near the surface will likely result in moderate instability. This coupled with moderately strong shear and forcing along the approaching front should result in widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could become capable of producing severe weather in the form of damaging wind gusts and large hail. Tornado potential is a bit more uncertain given relatively weaker flow closer to the surface, but there is enough shear for supercells. Also, any boundary interactions (terrain/bay/river breeze circulations) could enhance this activity. Temperatures will be very warm with highs well into the 80s and lows in the 60s to around 70 east of the mountains Wednesday into Thursday, 20 to 30 degrees above normal and more akin to summer than spring. Temperatures will take a tumble Thursday night behind the front.

Far NE PA in the mid/upper 40's...LSV mid 80's.

We have had short spurts of sports all winter, not my intention to devolve. Buc's looked exciting last night so a congrats more than anything.

Now is his time to gloat about the Buc's win last night.

Sure, just off to our SE....not sprawling into the Ohio Valley for over a week.

No doubt, just hope that uber ridge does not set up both for temps and precip. Warm is one thing, one to two weeks of a constant "high pressure" is another. I was not ready for my AC bill to jump yet. Noticed a little tropical like storm spinning around off the coast of Florida.

Yep, Johnny Cash is coming to shut down the mowing.

The GFS has been wrong at ~300 hours all year so far so who knows...but that is ugly look for temps and hydrology around here.

Someone should do a safety check on @TimB when he sees this.

Anytime I see 85-87 on those Panels, I feel CXY itching to prove something.

CMC keeps saying to watch for a 90 tomorrow or Thur

Late Nooners...66 in Rou.

Yea, the ring of fire is never good for rain.

Summer like "ring of fire" sets up over the East Coast in Mid-April on the GFS...after teasing some possible snow flakes on Easter. CMC teases someone hitting 90 on Wunderground later this week.

There is a pocket of 30's North and NW of Harrisburg. Some reports in the LSV are in the mid 50's! 54 just to my west.

How do you walk in that thing?

49 Here

That would put a serious dent into the mowing wars.