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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Check out the shield/deform band on the 12Z Icon. Better than anything we got last winter from my memory. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Kudos to them for having a nice middle ground with the different solutions on table. I had initially commented that their map was a little light for the LSV but now with some ensemble members showing zip (and the GFS op) I agree with Mitchnick that it is good for this range. Meso extended runs come into range in the next couple hours. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yea, it was gruesome. Definitely not something for general TV. He is seemingly a true, upstanding person as evidenced by all the people who have chimed in on Twitter. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
@ItstrainingtimeMay be career over. The replay is Joe Theisman bad. Congrats on the win in this ugly one. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
The model spread only 3-4 days away from possible effects is pretty substantial. One large difference is that the Icon and EC both allow the vort to sit idle for a day to the south of the area while it rains itself out....CMC charges ahead and pushes the high out of the way. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Well, the GFS folded to the EC for this weekend....no rain for the LSV. But the EC folded to the CMC and now takes the SLP up into the Piedmont/Apps region though not nearly as wet as the CMC for thr weekend. The CMC is a flooder. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Chubb season over. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
This game is quickly getting lost as to it being interesting. Brown's and Steelers football. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Making PSU proud. Lots of bad play calling the last 10 min in Steeltown. Little worried that Pickett may not be the answer. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
N. Harris Opps, I mean Highsnith -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
18Z GFS is a shell of its former self and another nod to the earlier Government qpf map. Storm never drops below 997mb. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
What happens in PIllow stays in PIllow. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Agreed, just felt all 3 global should get their say today since so many here have weekend plans riding on the outcomes. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
EC finally rains on us....9 days from now. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
EC continues to look like the Government QPF map from earlier but much less in the way of total qpf..hangs one piece of energy off the Florida coast longer than the other globals. That scenario lessens the effects in Happy Valley as shown. Basically dry without the vort crashing into the MA. In winter this run would have been a crushing blow to storm hounds. The MJS morning predict special. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
So, not familiar here but is there an actual parking lot for people who arrive early and then everyone else is stuck doing the Burning Man thing? -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
The stadium may not be full based on the 12Z's so far. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
This is a good warm up for winter in watching the different interactions and predicts between the globals. The displacement of the blocking high on the CMC makes for very a large variance on ground truth vs. the GFS. I have heard people comparing this to a Nor' Easter but the OP globals (CMC GFS) continue the trend toward allowing the SLP to find a weakness and get into or near the Apps. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
GFS was not much different from the Icon in driving the low into the SE and then heading North. Slower advance north vs. 6Z which would be good for early PSU parking activities but not good for the game itself. CMC takes the onus off the coast and tracks up through SC and the Apps. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
The 12Z Icon drives potential Opehlia up into NC in a giant change from its 0Z prediction of keeping it completely off the coast. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
The most important 12Z run ever for Sat PSU tailgating and OC MD plans is on deck. Does potential Ophelia get named? -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I take exception to the exaggeration claim when I said may! LOL. I had no idea where you were. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
This was in reference to total mows. Some of us have a running mower count here for fun.....I have only mowed 12 times all year so far mostly due to long stretches of no mowing due to the drought. I think the Trainer may be in the 30's. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It would be unfortunately ironic if that did happen. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Their map does not match up with the CMC and GFS at this point (for the LSV.) Both globals have 2" over most or all of the LSV.
