Bubbler86

Both the 12Z CMC and GFS have qpf numbers similar to that EC map Mitchnick postered yesterday (front passage next week at this time.) Drought denting type.

We continue to have a southwesterly component which screws me being on the wrong side of the mountain for it. I get no valley protection. 57's and 58's a plenty over here.

58 and Mostly Sunny here.

ITT's post was about snow, so I was posting ouch in respect to MU's forecast that says no snow is in the cards for at least 2 weeks. Sorry about the confusion.

Not a forecast from me, just what he said. In a pattern like this, there is essentially a "nil" chance of any early-season snow for at least the next two weeks. During an El Niño, there is often a "split flow" Jet Stream pattern. Storm systems associated with the southern branch of the jet track across the southern tier of the nation, while those associated with the northern branch trek across southern Canada or northern New England. In between, there is often a lack of precipitation and milder air (relative to average). This is why there can be long stretches of quiet weather during an El Niño winter. However, major Nor'easters often form and dump crippling amounts of snow in the mid-Atlantic and I-95 corridor when the two branches of the Jet Stream "phease," or join forces. After a quiet start, I suspect that this happens at least once between mid-January and late-February. So hang in there, snow-lovers.. your time will come! -- Elliott

MU's Near term is into Dec.

I added near term to my post to clarify.

Ouch for near term.

There is a bulge in the southeast (yes, funny) on Wed/Thur but it flattens out on all 3 globals. The Paweather post Turkey Day cold bullies it.

The ULL map on all 3 main MR models is pretty transitory around here. Quick rainer Wed for us. EC winds a low in the GL.

I know you are colder because you are in a valley (my above freezing temp this AM continues to question how much elevation means around here.)

That cold shot is on the surface maps but not until after Thanksgiving. Highs in the 50's on Turkey day on the 6Z Op.

11 degrees colder than MDT! Down to 33 here.

34 this AM.

Made it to 57 here today. MDT topped out at 58 and ended the day 1/2 degree BN, CXY 2.5 degrees AN with a warmer low of 37.

IPT: 39 MDT: 28 LNS: 35 THV (Not sure they record precip): 33 HGR: 26

Wall-E may not be too far around the corner. Mow #17 in the books.

Much needed.

For the LSV.....12Z Euro a week out....really close to normal most of the first 6-7 days outside this Thursday and Friday which are much above normal. Then not so ideal for Thanksgiving white mischief.

How do we know you are not AI?

12Z Op GFS has a system forming off the SE coast in the wake of the Wed Rain but the LW pattern gives it the scoot.

Pleasant and 52 at noon. Central LSV sites seem a good 3-6 degrees higher today at 55-58.

I think a lot of it is the psychological beating people take if they think they are going to win and do not.... many people turtle up and say bad things so if it turns out bad, it is easier to swallow. Not in your case though, you are more than fair on both sides of the pendulum.

Two headed running attack!

With the end of the week heater on tap we may be going into the last full week of Nov slightly AN...though not sure I trust MDT to have the same level of heat as the rest of us.