Bubbler86
-
Posts
29,694 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Bubbler86
-
CMC and GFS have temps well BN post this early week storm. Tue the CMC stays near freezing for a high with lows well into the teens area wide. Combo of the flow from the departing low and a high coming in from Canada tapping some of the coldest air on this side of the globe. Coldest period of the season so far as modeled. May not be vodka cold but no torch is something.
-
It dropped to 16 before starting to rise again. Elevation finally scored me a W on temps. 23 at 9AM. Lowest temp of the season so far. Meanwhile HGR was near 30.
-
He is not wrong.
-
Just for fun
-
Quite a few teens out there. See a 16 in York county. Not sure that is legit but lots of 18's and 19's.
-
18 this AM.
-
Remember that some of Europe names high pressure systems. That sounds....boring.
-
Interesting info I just saw in the MA. high risk Meteorologist The GEFS was indeed upgraded to use the FV3 core in 2020! https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefsv12/ It doesn't, however, have the changes that were made to the GFS in Version 16 in 2021.
-
Time for a cold one, eh?
-
That is a whole bunch of reading between the lines. LOL.
-
Definitely thought provoking. If he said no arctic air in the first sentence, then I am down with that. But I think there is a decent chance MU gets below 25 more than one more time this month. The NWS Zone forecast for MU tonight is 24. But yea, saying cold vs. AN does change the perspective. To me, 25 or 30 is cold any day. Mild would be 38, 40ish or above for lows right now. This is similar to the "what is a heatwave" discussion.
-
I guess one might ask what cold air means? If it means no lows in the 20's then I say this has little chance of being correct. If it means no cold air timing moisture, then yea definitely a possibility (no snow.) If I were MU's professor, I would fail him on this statement because 30 is cold no matter what time of the year, IMO. Patience is also allowing for people to misspell virtue. LOL
-
12Z GFS op still have some stuff to watch. It is changing so much run to run I am not going to put too much effort in it but has cold air chasing the big storm Mon/Tue (too late for LSV) then said storm is back to looping up and try to pull somewhat cold air back down over us Christmas Eve. Certainly not great panels but still in play.
-
It is indeed a "not comfortable" 40's out. Just stepped out and did not have a coat on.
-
We have reached the point where that is almost normal.
-
Eb nooners. 41 and Mostly Sunny.
-
32 for the low this Am. Up to 34 now.
-
I think most of us are down with the pattern not being great for 2-3 weeks but we are playing with the hopes (fantasy?) of a lucky break and perfect timing during a not-so-great pattern.
-
The model PBP is still fun to discuss (when I have time, unlike today). I like that you seem to be a PBP type as well :-)
-
In this case I was sort of picking it up from this point forward and generally commenting that it may be too soon to punt the next 3 weeks.
-
Low Lander snow before January? I thought that was not a possibility? :-)
-
Sarcasm noted but I would be up for moving from MDT. How does an area that is landlocked, CTP, have one of their official stations surrounded by water on 3 sides?
-
Sure. That is why model breakdowns should be taken as model break downs and not forecasts.
-
Well on the latest GFS it is gone. The storm mentioned today is off the SE Coast. Next Monday. Just thought it ironic that happens after the discussion earlier. Model PBP is a waste sometimes.
-
Shockingly the 18Z GFS does not develop the late week storm as the 12Z did, sends it out to sea which removes the 50/50 low from the equation, and all the analysis of the 12Z is a waste as the cold source tapped at 12Z is gone.
