Bubbler86

It's a rap

4:50? Are you in a different time zone up near Pillow?

An IMBY post but hoping all the 12z's getting rid of that hole/gap over far southern PA the first few hours of the snow. That is why some model are showing less than 2" around here.

Forecasts from the future Kings. Seem low. The Kuch maps should limit issues with fluff factor to a certain degree.

Handbook says that is where we want it.

32 this Am. 14 higher than yesterdays low.

Gross! Is that the man with two first names? Shag carpets required.

Do you take doge?

Well I just got my notice from wxrisk that snow removal may be needed in 36 hours.

Nam keeps gapping much of the LSV with that first tongue of WAA like moisture streaming out in front.

It starts ramping up and gets pretty hot and heavy around 11pm. Oh, and the snow starts around 7ish and a half inch on the ground 10-11.

I do too. At least they ssued something in PA. Wgal just said Lsv and I did not realize just 2 countries. One county short of the areas that did not have an wsw last time.

Wsw issued per wgal. Lsv.

Probably...about 90 min.

My comment was based on the quick changing situation last time and a compare to this time. 36 hours before the event, not many models have me getting 5" or more with the last system yet I had a WSW. Now, there are several models that suggest 5" here and there is nothing from them except a down play of the situation. They could of course be right but it is not consistent with their actions on the last system. We are actually down to 24 hours before the event at this point.

There is more evidence to have a Winter Storm Watch out now than there was for the last storm, IMO. Not only do they not do that they suggest it is too early for a WWA. Local news channels are beating the drum and going with 2-4 or 3-5. I try to stay away from insulting and not going to do it here, but this does seem bad. There are some NWS sympathizers among us, and I appreciate the viewpoint, but this is not great.

Here is Blizz racing home from work to talk about the NWS AFD info

ITT is trying to manipulate me to post more snows maps. I am the boss of me!

Roofus is looking like Icon a bit as to accums. Two maxima's in between a minima and basically what someone in the MA board (maybe PSU) about the northern Maxima getting more due to fluff/ratios.

Yep.

The NWS AFD is not all suggesting they are thinking high end with this one. .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Fair and seasonable weather with diminishing winds appear likely Friday, as low amplitude ridging builds over the state. Focus shifts quickly to Friday night as a light snowfall is expected over most of central PA. All medium range guidance indicates a digging upstream trough will approach from the GLAKS Friday night, with a weak associated surface low tracking along the NC/VA border, then out to sea by Saturday morning. Sfc low track favors heaviest snowfall well south of the Mason Dixon line, perhaps even south of D.C. However, strong frontogenetical forcing in the left exit region of a 120kt jet streak is likely to result in a period of light snow across Southern PA Friday night. We expected all snow from this evening, with highest chances of precipitation overnight into Saturday morning. Confidence isn`t high enough for headline issuances as per WPC and LWX collaboration. 2" amounts are becoming increasingly likely over our southeast, and there is less than a 30 percent chance for 3-4 inches in spots. Light snow may linger throughout the day on Saturday, but will become confined to the Alleghenies by Saturday evening in a cold advection pattern.

Minima should show up in version 3 of your Life and times.

Iconing incoming

That is a tad east of my main house but I will be able to see it from below. I am more where the w in Hagerstown is on that map.