Bubbler86

Model verification for MDT's 7.7" of snow on the normal Global and Meso models at 48 and 24 hours out from 12Z Yesterday (Sun and Mon 12Z Runs). Cannot see the HRRR's on Pivotal at that point. Numbers are rounded and pivotal keeps switching from 10:1 or Kuch so tried to double check. EC and UK are 10:1. Sun 12Z GFS-6" Nam12K-3" UK-3" EC-2" Fv3-1" Rgem-1" Nam 3k-1" GEM-1" ICON-0 Mon 12Z Nam 3k-6" GFS-5" Nam12K-5" Fv3-4" GEM-3" UK-3" ICON-2" EC-2" Rgem-1"

That system has the potential to give him snow...he should be all over it. Short Pump Jack.

LR Modeling keeps the MA LR thread in business. They should put Google Ad's on there to monetize it.

This year could be one to remember for having normal or better snow despite being one of the warmest winters ever. I am not going into the CC convo, just stating the facts in a vacuum of where we stand this year with 2 weeks left in Met winter. I see nothing on the GFS to give any hope of putting a serious dent in the current AN departure for the month.

As we get to the mid-point of a typical Feb (apologies to Leap year this year), MDT has had no BN days the entire month. If today's ends up AN, probable with a low of only 32 so far, it will be the only February in the 2000's that this has happened. I did not look back to see when the last time it happened past the year 2000. MDT has reached the 40's or higher every day this month. Also, PennLive was wrong. MDT did record 7.7" yesterday.

29 here this Am. Nice agreement among the GFS, Nam, Rgem and Icon this Am with the Friday night system. Euro and UK Outliers showing it sliding through the Carolina's. I like the timing right now with snow Friday night and not losing Saturday for doing stuff.

Another interesting fact, MDT never got below freezing and only hit 32 for a few minutes. LNS never got to 32.

Yea, I was adding to the facts for when the real/correct number comes out. It was actually 2-3 hours after the snow finished. If they report 7.7" it could be 5" depth 2-3 hours after the snow ended.

MDT was down to 2" at 7PM.

Mdt was reporting 5" depth just after the snow ended.

WGAL blaming trucks with empty trailers for the I83 issues this AM. Plus, had a snowman built by a 2-year-old in Maytown.

The models were super consistent in keeping rain over here longer than other areas. I am glad the Blizz Storm got you guys so good.

Loudest I heard since summer thunderstorms....including the rain at 5AM when many of you had switched to snow. I am not a melter/qpf type person, but I think I was close to 2" total over here as well. I know I was at 1 1/4" just from rain/before the snow.

Nighttime fall will help with accums as well....and allow me to still get out on Sat.

GFS not too shabby.

Rgem even less interaction with a faster forward speed....light snow overnight Friday into Saturday AM. The Icon has a similar low position at this point but is much more juiced and 4MB's lower.

18Z Nam keeping the moisture train slightly open with the Gulf but separate waves. Not really a lot at 500 to suggest any chances of a real phase/Miller A from the SE.

Snow is taking a beating now at 43 with sun.

Queen HRRR/HER? I agree, just looking at evolution and ignoring snow totals which wavered, the HRRR held its ground nicely.

Man, you are so 2015. LOL. Ok, if you want to talk 500H... but the Nam, the Icon and others have held the torch over the last few winters. King Euro would have had my area flooding last summer vs. the actual drought that took place.

@AccuChrisI saw you started some gameday Meso verification and PBP last night and I would have loved to join in on that, one of my favorites parts of this, but during daytime storms :-)

Who is the dethroned King? The Nam is probably in the top 2-3 models for this run with verification starting at 84 hours. It did waver at times as well though.

Still cloudy here and has dropped from 40 to 35 so snow retention is pretty good.

Last December (2022) was 1-2 degrees BN so may be the reason for the difference. No month has been anywhere near BN this year. Feb is currently about 1.4 higher than last Feb.

Icon is still a warning event for south PA. This does NOT include any snow today or from the first NS Vort.