Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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I was just joking that DT always sides with the euro, not a forecast. LOL.
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I was joking about DT's penchant to always crown the Euro. Rain has commenced here. 48/44
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Euro wins again-DT That is actually very well written compared to usual comments.
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Going to cause some angst here.
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Most models have temps getting into or near the 40's for all of the southern half of PA tomorrow. Once the snow stops, roads will melt fast IMO.
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On the current NWS Zones, the counties that need a Warning per the HRRR do not have it and many that have it, do not need it. Latest AFD has the words LSV and crosshairs near each other.
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Quite a few PA Counties will go from WSW to little or no snow if the HRRR is correct.
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Just finishing up at this point. One more compaction or slight shift south and Blizz misses a good bit of the Blizz storm. Crazy.
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The HRRR is coming in very compact and about 100 miles faster than 12Z as of 5AM tomorrow. Still a good snow for those that it reaches.
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Reading this in a vacuum, one might think that being a snowplow driver gives one an extra early lead time on snow rumors.
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I am glad you asked. His snow removal forecast.
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He has plans ranging from $5 to $100/MO so you may be able to get in on the $5 plan.
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I think all the panic was on other forums. We all just talked about it, learned from it, and moved to the next one :-)
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The Ukie, Rgem and Fv3 has similar paths to what they show I think...Miller Bish.....just not as "fast" on the others as it is on the Euro.
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I personally never think it is the top dog, was just doing the pbp plus my opinion on why we lost the heavy precip (MIller B). I cannot buy the low moved from Western VA to hundreds of miles off shore in 6 hours.
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From hour 18 to 24 on the Euro, the low Jumps several hundred miles East. I do not think it necessarily moves that far vs. jump/Miller B. 500H ULL still in central VA when the SLP is way out in the Atlantic.
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Very true on globals being taken with a grain of salt (obviously ensembles too.) That map does bear some resemblance to the Fv3 and Rgem.
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Since the cat is out of the bag with the EC...last PBP post on this one, at 24 the low has transferred well off the coast and there is very little snow in PA....more mixed and rain but a heavy band of snow in the far South Eastern LSV.
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I guess I am behind then but yes, not impressed so far.
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At 1AM the low is 994 in Far Western VA. Still a 3 MB weaker than 0Z and a bit south. Basically, no snow anywhere as of yet.
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EC starts us off with a low that is about 50-100 miles south and 3 MB weaker than it was at 0Z (at 1PM today.)
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52/44 and cloudy for late nooners.
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Minima...using that fencing Met speak! Did you read a Cosgrove email this AM? I see some people elsewhere throwing the ground hog under the bus assuming big snow tomorrow. The ground hog said early spring. I am not sure what the exacts are on that, but I doubt he/she meant second week of Feb.
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Maybe he is counting on the coastal more to add to you Eastern guys. Lots of models showing that trend...if not most of them.
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I stand by my call of 2-4 for most areas Harrisburg and south but maybe less down my way and other areas bordering the M/D York and west. Areas to the east have a better shot at higher coastal totals. With the temps as predicted, I do not think there are a lot of major road issues over here. I think the virtual learning options gives them an out and fast way to pivot.
