Bubbler86

The NWS AFD is not all suggesting they are thinking high end with this one. .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Fair and seasonable weather with diminishing winds appear likely Friday, as low amplitude ridging builds over the state. Focus shifts quickly to Friday night as a light snowfall is expected over most of central PA. All medium range guidance indicates a digging upstream trough will approach from the GLAKS Friday night, with a weak associated surface low tracking along the NC/VA border, then out to sea by Saturday morning. Sfc low track favors heaviest snowfall well south of the Mason Dixon line, perhaps even south of D.C. However, strong frontogenetical forcing in the left exit region of a 120kt jet streak is likely to result in a period of light snow across Southern PA Friday night. We expected all snow from this evening, with highest chances of precipitation overnight into Saturday morning. Confidence isn`t high enough for headline issuances as per WPC and LWX collaboration. 2" amounts are becoming increasingly likely over our southeast, and there is less than a 30 percent chance for 3-4 inches in spots. Light snow may linger throughout the day on Saturday, but will become confined to the Alleghenies by Saturday evening in a cold advection pattern.

Minima should show up in version 3 of your Life and times.

Iconing incoming

That is a tad east of my main house but I will be able to see it from below. I am more where the w in Hagerstown is on that map.

Woah, that is BS. Move that purple line past Marysville.

Quite a bump up from 12Z. 3K high end WAA as well.

Another snow map for Mike. He has secretly told me he is especially happy that WB and Pivotal rarely match which gives him extra maps to parse.

Have to get Canderson home from Fortune Feimster safely.

Like Mitch mentioned this Am, snows get in fast on the HRRR and there is no rain unlike many other suites.

Until today the ground had actually taken a beating over here, but the roofs survived, and most were still covered this Am....now it is all gone but piles. We had about half of you to start. MDT did get down to 22 last night so despite hitting 39/40 right now they should break their AN streak at a little over 2 weeks.

HRRR holding same through 29.

Snow on snow went done the tubes over here today. Up to 45.

And the PSU storm!

Is this you?

It is rolling out as we type. Just at the start though.

And Tim....

I think CTP should be hoisting the WWA's soon.

For the southers

Comparing the UK qpf map with the snow map suggests it is predicting quite a bit of the precip to be rain/ice in the LSV Friday night. Lanco has 1/3" of qpf but less than 1" of snow. Temps are borderline on the Icon too as I mentioned before.

Short pump Jack :-(

You are always using your previous job skill set to back out of stuff. LOL. If there is no snow map, it did not happen.

The problem with sim radar is it includes virga (at least I thought it did). Here is an example of GFS to compare. They are rarely perfectly matched though. I was told that the precip on the second panel not on the sim radar is the models prediction of drizzle/light precip that does not show on radar. It sounds like there is a some confusion on this from everyone including me. What would make senses is if the second panel included virga.

I was thinking most post maps showing radar/actual weather as of the time stamp re: the actual predicted radar/ground conditions at 12Z if the map is stamped 12Z. I thought the Pivotal maps I post are equivalent to a radar image/composite panel re: I think this is where the EC was predicting snow to be occurring at this time frame. I know on TT there are separate panels for radar and not, but I do not see that option on pivotal. The highlighted line below suggests to me this map is equivalent to a radar map. I could definitely be wrong but this was how I always took those maps. Until now I did not notice that the maps Blizz posted from WB were not time stamped radar maps.

Icon is a little less....10:1 actually higher in the LSV but here is the Kuch. LSV temps are near 32 for much of the snow so a little lower than 10:1 in the LSV.