Bubbler86

You must not believe the euro weeklies.

That sound we all hear is one of our regular posters, from Mt. Joy, breaking out T-Squares and calculators to help figure out this issue!

Roofus is way North...something to watch. Like GFS was a MA wet dream, this is MA wet without the dream and a bit close for me even.

Yea, as I mentioned before/above WB had the Euro showing snow over Central PA at 7AM Sat Am while Pivotal has it exiting far SE PA at that time. The snow maps do not matter anyway but I do like consistency of output. Here are both Pivotal Nam's outputs. I am calling Harrisburg the accum mark beside Cumberland County.

GFS is a MA dream (given the options.) Wagons Neutral.

Rgem and Icon. Icon 10-1 was slightly higher in the LSV but Kuch higher west so did Kuch for both.

I was focused on the LSV. 10-1 is higher in the LSV (on Pivotal). I see out your way Kuch is higher. 10-1 has Harrisburg at 3 and Kuch is 2.7.

It had that band of snow getting into the top 4/5 of PA before far southern PA saw any and it was indeed much more widespread than 12Z Nam.

Not as good as one would expect with all that deep, digital blue. Did 10-1 since it will be cold enough IMO. 10-1 is higher than Kuch. Both are close to the same though.

Wagons North on the 18Z Nam

Also, possibly over reliance in MJO forecasts? The one I just looked at was not suggesting Phase 8 to the level that it was before. and possibly skipping 2.

I finally got a chance to look.... quick de-escalation.

I more meant the location of the precip shield at 12Z not differences in snow. WB has the precip shield over central PA while Pivotal has it leaving PA at the same time.

Did you see the large difference in the WB hour 72hr map and the Pivotal one? The heights are similar but the precip is not at all. Pretty strange unless I am missing something (which is VERY possible). Only thing I could conclude is that Pivotal; is showing as of 12Z and WB is showing an average location of precip during that 6 hour period vs. the location at the time stamp.

On pivotal the falling snow is gone before sunrise as well...a plus for a Sat IMO. Strange difference in your maps.

Euro fairly similar for end results...a bit higher near the M/D line.

And it is like 1/10th of an inch for those areas. LOL

A windy, cold 36 at noon.

Lollipops of over 3" in the LSV. Icon took a slight step back with intensity of the snow but still decent. Well more than slight for northern LSV.

The rgem surprisingly came north with the vort though it too basically loses it. But, yea the Friday night vort has sped up some and the whole moisture profile changed in 12-24 hours.

Plus, some of it is what is being verified. I suspect PSU is talking LR patterns and the model's ability to slowly adjust changes through runs vs. jumping from one extreme to another. But I meant what I said about the EC yesterday. It was dethroned long ago for my purposes of shorter ranger forecasting. I ignored it all summer because it was rarely correct for ground truth weather.

Up to the Icon to save the Icon storm.

Roll out the rgem on good radiational cooling nights.

Nam12 really minoring out the Friday night chance for areas to our west...disappointing. Hope it is an off run. It may amp up a bit as it gets closer to our area.

@Coop_Mason what the? Bottom half of your own county. ...Adams County... 2 WNW Lake Meade 7.0 in 0814 AM 02/13 Public 3 NNW York Springs 6.0 in 0800 AM 02/13 Public Biglerville 3.0 WSW 5.3 in 0700 AM 02/13 COCORAHS Biglerville 5.2 in 0745 AM 02/13 COOP 1 N Carroll Valley 5.0 in 1030 AM 02/13 Trained Spotter Cashtown 4.8 in 0847 AM 02/13 Trained Spotter Abbottstown 2.0 N 4.0 in 0800 AM 02/13 COCORAHS 1 SW Mcsherrystown 3.7 in 0930 AM 02/13 Trained Spotter