Bubbler86

It was 38 when the light rain started here...rain did its deed and got us to snow but no accums at 34 as of yet.

@Chris78 the fact that it has been raining and now snowing here for over an hour, and you just stated flurries, really points to some dry air and the sharp cut off to that first waa like shield that came through. It is still 34 here.

On a majority of guidance, there has been a North trend the last 6-12 hours pushing the better forcing and banding from the southern areas of the LSV up to Harrisburg and above. That has been a big topic of discussion. Agreed, the models drying out even further the last 3-4 hours should not change forecasts this late. Let the chips fall as they may.

You were throwing models out left and right while it was snowing last event. Lol

At this point I would gladly take 2".

Fwiw, gfs bucking the trend and still has two maxima's over Mitch and blizz. Minima in between.

This is incredible.....6 hours between two RRFS maps. Bad look regardless of what happens. I do not need to be told it is nowcasting time, I know that....but cutting totals down 300-400% in the Northern LSV is terrible performing.

Light rain has commenced here. 38/22. I am sure it will change to snow as the column cools or precip rates increase.

Their AFD suggest everyone in the south gets 6+". Feel bad for them if it does not happen as the models are pulling the rug though many hinted it 12 hours ago. Nothing is over yet though. Quick hitting banded snow expected over south central PA this evening and overnight aided by increasing FGEN to the north of sfc low sliding eastward across the southern Mid-Atlantic. Energetic lift into favorable DGZ and increasing SLRs should promote a about a 6 hour period of 1+ in/hr rates across the southern zones between roughly 03-09Z. Snow character should lean drier (fluffy) vs. the early week storm. Snow associated with the main sfc low should exit the area to the east by ~12Z.

Snow reported in Norristown just West of Philly. Crazy.

Several meso's and even the icon have been showing that over the last few runs.

Broom time

@WaynesboroWX what part of town do you live in? I am almost in MD off Harbaugh Church Rd.

Man, I was about to say this was March '93 all over again until you doused my burn.

Hello, yes. We were in the bullseye until recently, but it may be that Nissan screwed us. LOL

Latest HRRR

I posted a Kuch map for all of PA.

41/22 and thickening clouds. Was thinking I would be seeing snow withing 2 hours so hope that pulls through.

If you ever post that a storm looks primed to hammer us, I am going to run for the hills!

I am not throwing in the towel but model wise, we are toast. Nowcast time.

That is indeed where modeling has been moving it to over the last 12-18 hours.

I am looking at this from a WSW 3-6" angle....things have settled backwards a bit today.

That would be great if after the virga, the first area of precip involved us. If not, it may not snow until after midnight.