Nice summary here from MH AFD :
The best chance for severe weather will come this evening into
the overnight period, as upstream convection developing in the
vicinity of the surface cold front congeals and progresses
towards our area. The latest CAMS largely depict one or more
linear convective features moving towards the area overnight and
this evolution seems reasonable given the strong mid-lvl flow
and associated shear (500mb winds, and 0-6km shear will be in
the 90-95th percentile for mid June) which should help support
convective organization and maintenance. Although we may see a
shallow nocturnal surface inversion form, reasonably steep lapse
rates above this shallow layer should support wind gusts
reaching the surface in any well- organized convection. SPC
highlights this potential for damaging winds by placing the
majority of our area in a slight risk for severe weather today
(mostly for the evening-overnight period). Given the fast
propagation of the system, convective mode, and strong flow
aloft. damaging winds look to be the primary threat although
small hail will also be possible. The tornado threat will be
limited by the weak low-lvl wind fields (the wind field is very
"mid-lvl heavy" in this event). Heavy rain is certainly a
concern with any stronger convection with some signal for 1-2+
inch an hour rates, however suspect that the quick system motion
will make the hydro threat secondary to the wind threat.
The main forecast uncertainties are both the timing of the
latter round of convection, and also its spatial coverage. For
example, the latest CAMS have a spread of nearly 4 hours in
timing the QLCS passage which is not particularly surprising
given that the quick system motion, combined with the potential
for convectively-driven propagation effects related to cold
pools are a recipe for timing discrepancies. Additionally the
timing situation is further complicated by the fact that several
CAMS depict separate northern and southern linear segments
developing, while other CAMS show only a more consolidated
southern segment impacting our area. Generally suspect that the
most likely period for a potential QLCS would be 02- 08Z with
the best chance of severe winds being roughly TTN southward,
however if the northern segment is able to get going the risk
could both extend further northward and also begin earlier.