Jump to content

frd

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,273

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by frd

  1. frd
    In regards to what you were saying @mappy about watches .... I had several Bradford pear trees I had went down a couple years ago, in a storm that did not have even have a warning, quick moving discrete cell, estimated winds of over 70 mph. In 30 years only a few watches for my area yielded a severe event. But, I understand and appreciate the reasoning with watches, and it is always best to be prepared. We are talking life, loved ones and property here. Kudos the the NWS and the SPC for what they do.
  2. frd
    Things may be moving faster than anticipated - implications for later Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 657 AM EDT Tue May 28 2019 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 630 AM Update...The decaying MCS is moving through the area faster than expected. This may lead to an increased severe weather threat later this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.
  3. frd
    Missed the heavy storms that went South of me on weekend but this line should make it here. Seems to be getting stronger as it move East.
  4. frd
    Nature's washing machine
  5. frd
    Its a dust bowl out there now
  6. frd
    Interesting comment by HM about yesterday's severe event . I believe it is directed at his area, but worth reading over regardless.
  7. frd
    Looking at Sunday do you think there is at least potential, even if not severe, for rainfall in the Northern parts of the sub forum including my area and the Eastern Shore ? Thanks ( and those photoshopped amateurs need to at least pick more realistic "fake " photos to use )
  8. frd
    Yep, just nuts !
  9. frd
    That is saying a lot. Remember that like it was yesterday. Sounded like a freightr train for a good 15 minutes , took down countless 50 to 200 feet Pines on the road in front of our development. Took many days to recover in regards to tree clean-up, and getting power to those who did not have underground electric hook-up. Interesting the enhanced area today, to a degree today fizzled, where as the slight risk become the real deal. Maybe the heating, and more sun, not sure.
  10. frd
    Props to @high risk Good job ! He said the line would intensify for some areas and it did so. Some pretty impressive wind gusts and damage reports comming in now for areas far to my SW.
  11. frd
    For Northern Delaware the incoming line dissapated, maybe a trace of rain at my location. What a dissapointment. Looks like Philly got hit and you guys from Baltimore SW got it good. So then continues the now growing dry spell for the majority of the Northern 1/3 of the Delmarva.
  12. frd
    From Severe briefing NWS Mount Holly released this AM. For the NE part of the sub forum
  13. frd
    I know your insight is much valued. But, maybe we can at least get some rainfall. In this case for the plants.
  14. frd
    Wow, never knew that Moderate Risk only averages once every three years. That explains a lot about the frequency of severe weather in our parts.
  15. frd
    Seems the HRRR idea of the mid afternoon storms having more impact than the Midwest complex slated for evening has gained a "bit" more support. But, as Mount Holly NWS states the Midwest complex needs to be watched Great job by Mount Holly in the discussion this AM. covers everything in detail ! This is just a snippet .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 630 update: Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across northern portions of the forecast area (generally along and north of I-78) for the next couple hours. Occasional bursts of moderate rain will be the main concern with these AM storms. Regarding the stronger storm potential later in the day 06Z guidance has trended a bit more towards the HRRR solution in the morning discussion e.g. an initial line of stronger storms passing through the area mid-afternoon and then less activity in the evening (generally missing the area to the north). Consequently the line of storms currently extending through the Midwest will bear watching.
  16. frd
    I know, but just mentioning be careful what you wish for. Already my garden is totally dry and top soil is very hard. It is amazing how quickly we lose ground moisture this time of year. Once-a- week rainfall would be awesome, but 14 days in summer in a row without rainfall is not great, if you have agriculture concerns, or have a garden. etc. Need to get my soaker hoses set up and straw or mulch the garden, it is about time shortly. Less rain has one advantage- less mosquittos - I hate them !
  17. frd
    For my area Mount Holly has only about a 40 % chance of storms . A few days ago there was agreement a line would form and move East from I-95 up this way, and head East to the shore. What actually happened was a Dover, DE and further South scenario. I am not sold on a widespread event and think any significant severe is way North. One thing though, surface moisture after the heat and winds and low dews - getting dry. After this next oppurtunity little in the way of rainfall. And the SE is dry and super hot. I have noticed the trend for the dryness spreading West in time as well. Maybe the next wet cycle is June, when exactly , not sure.
  18. frd
    Mount Holly update at 330 PM NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A very warm/hot and also humid afternoon in progress with some areas closing in on 90 degrees, however the dew points have dropped a little mainly along the I-95 corridor. An upper-level trough will continue to shift eastward through tonight from the Great Lakes, adjacent Canada and New England. Low pressure will track well to our north, however its cold front crosses our region through early this evening. As the cold front arrives, it may combine with a lee side trough. The convection allowing models (CAMs) generally agree that convection continues to develop, especially around the Philadelphia metro southwestward. In addition, some other convection will continue to develop especially near terrain influences and near the residual lee side trough. As of 19z, only some showers with no lightning being detected as convective development is shallow thus far. Visible satellite imagery does show some taller cumulus near and west of I-95. For now went no higher than scattered convection (chance PoPs), as the overall organization should be lacking. The latest mesoscale analysis shows around 500-1000 J/KG of MLCAPE and this should increase to around 1500 J/KG by late afternoon. The 0-3KM shear ranges from 30-40 knots with the strongest across the far northern areas. Some strong storms are anticipated with a few potentially going severe. There is some dry air aloft and combined with steeper low-level lapse rates results in better DCAPE and potentially strong surface winds. Locally strong to damaging wind gusts are possible, however this threat looks to be with any robust convective cores as precipitation loading will enhance the downdraft. There is not a lot of forcing, thus convection will be driven by the airmass and the incoming surface front. Once the cold front shifts offshore early this evening, the convection will end with clearing taking place. Cold air advection increases in the wake of the cold front, and this should keep some wind going from the northwest. This will also result in a cooler overnight, especially as the dew points drop into the 40s for much of the region by daybreak. Low temperatures are mainly a MOS/continuity blend.
  19. frd
    Pretty crazy sounding there
  20. frd
    I believe I read many schools have been cancelled in the high risk areas today out West due to the nature of the forecast, timing of the storms, and the probabilities of extensive severe weather and tornadoes.
  21. frd
    Marginal risk today, here but wow to the High Risk in Oklahoma and Texas. Going to be some incredible videos coming from that area. I am sure some of the best storm chasers in the country are there today, as it has been talked about for over a week, due to the high potential for large and long track d tornadoes.
  22. frd
    From Mount Holly for today, and I noticed a 90 degree reading possible in Southern Delaware. Looks like severe potential lower but the odds of getting into some thunderstorm activity better than yesterday 000 FXUS61 KPHI 201026 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 626 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front associated with low pressure moving through the Great Lakes into Canada will cross our region this afternoon and evening. High pressure is then expected for Tuesday into Wednesday. A warm front arrives in our area late Thursday night and Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday which may stall to our south on Sunday. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A quiet start to the morning after a muggy and humid night. Temperatures will once again be on the rise, with most places making it into the mid to upper 80s. Portions of southern Delaware and the Eastern Shore of Maryland may in fact reach 90. Slightly cooler along the shore and in the higher terrain of the Poconos with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as a cold front moves southeastward across the mid-Atlantic. The severe threat appears to be lower than yesterday, though non- zero. The Storm Prediction Center has our area under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. Instability looks to be lower than yesterday with ML CAPE values forecast to top around 2000 J/kg. Shear will be a little lower as well, with 0-3 km shear forecast to be less than 30 knots, thus a little less supportive of stronger thunderstorm cells. With the timing of the front, storms look to fire a little further southeast than yesterday, likely initiating along the Delaware River Valley by 4 to 5 pm and moving offshore by 9 to 10 pm. There could be some localized flooding concerns in areas that see brief heavy rainfall, but storm motion should prevent as much training as was seen yesterday.
  23. frd
    Wow to Monday for Texas and OK., it might be an awesome day. Some signals are really historic for the potential of severe weather and tornadoes out there.
  24. frd
    This is pretty cool from Ventrice.
  25. frd
    Line forming and moving East now https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=lwx&product=NCR&loop=yes
×
×
  • Create New...