I know you've been following weather for a long time but to think/follow any model 11 days out IMO is a waste of time if thinking fantasyland. Could it happen? Sure. But I would put odds on a limited event/bust. I could do better things w/my time. I'll grab interest if it's within 3-4 days of the storm but sure as hell not following for 10+ days.
I'm more w/Iceman thinking this month will pretty much suck. Yeah, maybe a little event or two and no super torch then we ease into March where I really lose interest. Again, good stuff could happen (and I hope) but I would bet against it and we'll just go ho-hum into Spring and then dreaded Summer.
Temps climbing/47F