WxUSAF

I changed the title...

FWIW, 0z GEFS keeps the cross polar flow HL look throughout the entire run's mid-long range, where yesterday's runs broke it down late. Very much EPO/WPO/PNA driven with the AO/NAO going very positive late. EPS has the AO/NAO more neutral at D10. Eta...6z GEFS just loaded on TT and it's pretty similar.

I think it’s more that long range ensembles typically show a pattern washed out in space and time, where there’s typically more variability, especially in winter, due to storm systems that aren’t seen in long range ensemble means. As you get closer, the ensembles resolve that variability. For example, next week still looks BN overall, but it was looking like wall-to-wall cold a couple days ago. Now you’re seeing the ensembles pick up on a brief warming around next Wednesday due to SW flow ahead of the next cold front. That said, the gfs and GEFS definitely have a cold bias in the long range, and there’s also a tendency to overdo HL blocking. I’m buying the cold look more right now because the Eps is very bullish on cross polar flow.

Certainly a very cold look for next weekend on the ensembles. I’d wait until this weekend before being comfortable with how cold that ends up. Colder looks in the long range tend to modify with time.

Ontario and Quebec look to her thoroughly snow covered over the next week or two and temps will stay cold up there per guidance , so it should stick around. Good news for keeping air masses cold as they head our way.

All 3 ensemble systems put a ridge bridge across the Pole around D7 and through the end of their runs. That should help keep beating on the strat vortex and keep us BN in early Novie. Certainly seems a trend in recent years to have a warm early fall, chilly November, then torcherific December.

Going to be a banner year for digital snow. Tug Hill/Mt Rainier level digital pummeling

Nice 6-12” on the 12z gfs. Oh yeah, winter’s going to go REAL well with the new gfs

Yeah, first week probably ends on the slightly cool side. I think first freeze for the non-DCA sights is a good bet. But after, probably goes mild again if MJO keeps progressing and PV keeps consolidating. This next week is a sneaky torch. This mornings low is already +15F from normal lows.

If NAO <= 0 then NAO = +5

I think you’re both talking past each other. Most recent run did a big flip to +AO/NAO. Older runs were major -AO/NAO.

Going to get ugly if this gfs cold bias leads to constant D8+ teasing like I’m afraid it will.

Euro and GGEM slower yet again to drag the front through late next week. Now both send things out in 2 pieces. Gfs was still catching up their old solution. Which also means the cold air is more and more modified by the time it gets here. All 3 still indicate some reinforcing cold shots aimed a bit closer to us after in early Novie, but damn the SE ridge just never wants to die this year.

You’re tied for the lead!!

Looks like it will get chilly after Halloween, but gfs clearly has a major cold bias in the long range. Wait until things get inside D5, and show up in the euro, before getting confident.

I’m totally fine with it amidst equally chilly BN departures. Except we have permanent +5F departures basically now.

Probably a couple days with +10-15F departures

Euro is way slower and torchy, GGEM in the middle. Shocker.

Good twitter thread from HM and others this evening. This good tidbit:

Well, gfs not folding yet as of 18z for the weekend and next week.

It is, but a bit more progressive than previously. Ggem looks similar.

We’ll see what the euro throws out at 12z, but some stark differences between euro and gfs starting this weekend. Euro going cutoff low happy? Gfs too progressive? Hard to say when both models are maybe playing into their biases. Gfs solution looks way more fun, so I’m rooting for it.

My oak turned brown and has been dropping due to the drought. Some maples are peaking, some look like late September, and some are half bare. Stupid sycamore is half bare.

Yup meant to say this too. Probably ~10 days to peak.

18z GFS hour 300. Ya’ll slackin’