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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    I was *this* close to yelling FFS out loud at the happy hour GFS turn a classic track into cold rain.
  2. WxUSAF
    That seems to be the pattern today. Euro and gfs both did that. That might be the path to a light event. Seems the possibility to have the primary run under us is basically gone.
  3. WxUSAF
    Is the December torch before or after the subzero temps and/or HECS. Asking for a friend, thx!
  4. WxUSAF
    Plane took off. Happens fairly often.
  5. WxUSAF
    Has a bit of a detached front end WAA piece which is good because it gets precip into the cold airmass. Quick snow and ice thump.
  6. WxUSAF
    Thought BWI and IAD only reported a T. Thanks for correcting that wrong impression!
  7. WxUSAF
    East Maryland
  8. WxUSAF
    Don't know about snow vs. rain, but the EPS follows the trend of a shift southward. Interestingly (disappointingly?), look at how the 850mb temps on the mean don't really budge in our area despite the track changes. But the arctic air aloft has moved south in Canada clearly. The 850mb warm front is pretty stagnant over the last few runs.
  9. WxUSAF
    Move that GOA low a few hundred miles westward and it would be time to pitch an 8-person tent
  10. WxUSAF
    DCA had 0.3”. Oof that’s REALLY embarrassing
  11. WxUSAF
    When does the endless December torch hit my house on the 12z runs??
  12. WxUSAF
    You’ll like the GGEM today. You’re snowblowing while DC and south is raining.
  13. WxUSAF
    Light drizzle still accumulating!
  14. WxUSAF
    Despite that, by my calculations 0.2/0, December 2019 is now infinitely snowier than December 2018.
  15. WxUSAF
    In addition to a shift south, a clearer trend on the gfs over the last 24hrs is for a faster shortwave. I think that’s a good trend for us as it keeps it closer to this weekends storm and therefore closer to the cold air that storm brings in.
  16. WxUSAF
    12/11: 0.2" Losing to @C.A.P.E. and @H2O, how embarrassing.
  17. WxUSAF
    I think that perception is mostly a combination of confirmation bias and the fact that even in snowy winters, most of our winter precip falls as rain.
  18. WxUSAF
    Same. Often seems off on its own. But at least by numbers, a euro-ukie blend solution is probably hard to beat at D5.
  19. WxUSAF
    What time will the #snowtrain hit my house?
  20. WxUSAF
    Looks like the I95 split hinted at by the euro and NAM before last night did occur with jackpotville locations around 1” and a secondary max of about 0.5” SE of the urban corridor. Biggest issue was precip dried out generally.
  21. WxUSAF
    Based on pics my wife sent and nearby spotter reports, probably only 0.2” in Columbia.
  22. WxUSAF
    At the top of the hour, SPC mesoanalysis put the 925mb freezing line from DCA-Annapolis and then NEward. 850mb SE of that.
  23. WxUSAF
    Have no idea if this was expected, boom, bust, or whatever, but I'll take it to assume the HRDRPS was right all along
  24. WxUSAF
    55 with light rain in San Francisco . 42 with light rain at home.
  25. WxUSAF
    That’s sleet and rain that you hear
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