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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Yeah, I don’t know if that SST pattern is unprecedented, but it’s pretty strange and unusual at least. I know DT was keying on that to think eastern US snowfall could be AN. Saw the CFS winter MJO forecast on Twitter this morning and it shows the MJO waves staying more in the Indian Ocean, which would be mostly favorable for us (phase 1-2). Maritime continent is the torch zone for us.
  2. WxUSAF
    Nearly all the CONUS below normal with Canada melting. Swing that eastern trough to an east-west orientation under that block and then bring through that low out west and BOOM!
  3. WxUSAF
    lol GGEM with freezing temps in the Everglades on the morning of the 3rd.
  4. WxUSAF
    I haven’t looked at it yet myself, but @tombo82685 says overnight EPS was best yet for early December.
  5. WxUSAF
    Only 0.04” overnight. Was hoping for more.
  6. WxUSAF
    Ravens are a mess
  7. WxUSAF
    Suppression risk?
  8. WxUSAF
    Dobbins looking strong today.
  9. WxUSAF
    Euro and GGEM both have major cold outbreaks D8-10. Sub freezing into FL with temps near 0 in the Midwest.
  10. WxUSAF
    Seasonal air in early December can work, but we have little margin for error. Need a good track, overnight helps, etc. If the PNA couples into the EPO domain, as the 18z gefs showed yesterday, we’d get some cold air moving south. Just takes time to flush the PAC puke out.
  11. WxUSAF
    Happy hour delivers and the runs not over yet! Anafrontal deals usually work well for us, especially at the beginning of December!
  12. WxUSAF
    We started some decorating today outside. I’m usually very anti-pre-thanksgiving Christmas decorating but yeah, 2020.
  13. WxUSAF
    EPS looks quite similar at that time.
  14. WxUSAF
    Weird to say this, but the GEFS advertised pattern in early December is actually pretty darn good. Verbatim not much cold air, but if that 500mb pattern occurred, it would end up colder I’d wager.
  15. WxUSAF
  16. WxUSAF
    Return of December 5?
  17. WxUSAF
  18. WxUSAF
    Extrapolated 12z gfs lookin’ tasty!
  19. WxUSAF
    We’ve got “extreme weather bullseye” working in our favor
  20. WxUSAF
    JB2 forecast FWIW https://www.justinweather.com/2020/11/19/winter-outlook-2021-i-am-more-bullish-on-snow-for-part-of-it/
  21. WxUSAF
    BWI: 10.3” IAD: 12.7” DCA: 6.5” RIC: 9.8” SBY: 8.5”
  22. WxUSAF
    This doesn’t look horrible. Usually CPC is just an ENSO copy-paste.
  23. WxUSAF
    This strong phase 2 wave helps that short cool-ish period near the start of December. If it goes into the COD after phase 2 without propagating into phase 3-4, that would help keep things less torchy.
  24. WxUSAF
    My cat observed the process from within 6 feet
  25. WxUSAF
    You can wire me $7M by Friday at 5pm for a hand recount. And no, you can’t just have a recount for DCA.
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