WxUSAF

Yes, if it's a largely sleet event maybe. I don't have the photographic memory for T-2" events that @psuhoffman has, but I recall some slop storm from the last couple years that looked super marginal on temps. 10:1 was like 2-4", but the snow depth maps were all like 0.1-1". I was hedging pretty hard on the snow depth maps, and the spotter reports ended up mostly like 1-2". Which I think was pretty close to Kuchera. Kuchera seems like a pretty good call in a marginal snow or rain scenario. Sleet does complicate a bit.

If the NAM is right, it's.a 4-hr long beatdown. Probably not right, but all the guidance today seems to suggest at least 1-2 hours of solid rates. It's early January fercrissakes. Yes, near-surface temps are a bit warm, but the column is perfectly cold.

I literally can’t recall a single event where the snow depth map was the best verifying forecast product. Yes 10:1 isn’t always good. Kuchera seems to be in the right sort of ballpark if there’s any precip type or temp issues. Tomorrow isn’t THAT marginal unless you want to take your spotter reports from on the asphalt of the beltway.

Tropical forcing progression supports the evolution of the Pac ridge like what the GEPS shows. The current MJO wave should progress toward the dateline which are cold phases for us. This pattern shown by Ventrice supports a cold eastern conus. Especially if the forcing NE of Australia is centered nearer or just east of the dateline.

@mappy setting expectations low so she can be “surprised” when she has over 2” and DCA has rain.

Euro looks solid (by this storms standards). Much juicier storm relative to 0z.

ALL IN

MJO forecasts always have a bias of killing the wave off too quickly. That strong of a wave with steady eastward progression won’t suddenly die in phase 6.

Lots of 1 step forward 1 step back on the long range ensembles. It’s clear nothings happening for awhile. Hope for a Feb 15 level turnaround.

GEFS goes ape sh-t on the Scand ridge and starts around D10 so not too far out in fantasyland. EPO also teaches poleward through AK. Still not a great pattern but could be close to a workable one by the end if it worked out that way.

I had 7.2” from that event

I had just over 3” from that.

Getting the Scand ridge pumping is good in a couple ways: 1. Can retrograde into the -NAO domain/extend over the pole 2. Combined with a strong WPO/EPO ridge, that's a good wave 2 hit to the Strat PV and can be a precursor to a SSW

It’s a game changer

Euro was apparently nearly on its own relative to its own ensembles the last couple days too in regards to that storm.

Euro totally caved on the weekend thing.

Yeah boundary layer is torched, but a stronger low could help that. Timing between the northern and southern stream lows as well.

Gfs wants none of what the euro has for the weekend, but is close for next week’s chance.

Impromptu January contest: Which is higher for each DC/Baltimore airport: Days in January reporting thunder. snowfall rounded to nearest inch. Alternatively: Rainfall rounded to nearest inch. snowfall rounded to nearest inch.

2020 starting off the decade the way most of it will likely be spent: unseasonably warm.

If you believe the MJO forecasts, we get a strong wave that emerges in the torch phases in 7ish days, but the forecasts have it propagating eastward and it should reach phase 7 at least by the 3rd week of January. If that happens it would shake things up. Phase 7 in January is workable for us.

Looks like ignoring it and is back (continuing?) with the “it was cold today in Siberia! Take THAT libz!”

Looks more shortwave than longwave in that. The Pac ridge still supports the mean trough axis along or even just west of the west coast.