WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Freezing rain sleet mix
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I’m trying to interpret it now and not having much luck.
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Yeah, still don’t agree with all the NAM hot taeks. It missed the synoptic setup badly.
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No model had freezing rain for us. None.
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Ugh yes. What the hell?
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Well, looked out and definitely a healthy portion of snow mixed in. 28/12
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Same. Ugh.
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So nice to be able to wet bulb from a temperature already in the 20s
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31/11
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@Bob Chill, totally agree on the soundings. Razor thin line between 2”/hr or sleet that can peel the paint off your car. Hopefully @high risk agrees with @psuhoffman that it can be a little aggressive with warm layers at times.
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Seems a bit drier vs the overnight runs (that’s been the trend all winter up to game time), but generally stronger with the initial snow thump. Less sleet. So far happy hour’s been pretty good for the cities and immediate suburbs. I’d say 3-6” plus some sleet is a pretty reasonable call for our yards. If we can hold off the warm layer just for another hour or two, it would make a big difference.
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Lol not sure what to make of the RGEM. Focuses the heaviest morning band through DC and southern half of 495. Then has a long second wave which most other guidance has dropped. But overall fits with the happy hour theme of good for the cities and drier for far N/W areas.
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34/11
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Time to switch to obs and now casting
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CWG updated forecast looks pretty decent to me although their "boom" range increased. I know they like to make their regions sort of "elegantly curved", but it always makes me a little twitchy that it doesn't align with the Fall Line.
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Euro still low 10s in the cities and single digits in the 'burbs Sunday morning. Euro's the coldest global on this point.
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Outside of the NAM and RGEM, seems like the sleet part has dried up a bit. That's fine with me. Maybe we get lucky with the banding tomorrow am and get a quick 5" thump with some sleet on top. That seems very possible given a blend of the guidance. Of course, if we get split like happened on Super Bowl Sunday, could be more like 2-3". I think saying 3-5" for us plus sleet/ice is a pretty solid forecast. Could say 3-6" to hedge.
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Pretty much every storm this winter has been 3-4" with mix for our areas. Feel pretty likely this one will fall in the same category. Maybe we get lucky and it ends up closer to 5" with mix? That's possible.
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I think apparently it did really well with the December event showing the Binghamton jack? But yeah, I'm not sure if I buy it.
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Ukie is really warm at 850mb. Blech.
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Para is a weenie run for the I-95 corridor. Thumped in the morning, just light sleet during the mix period, and then bullseye with snow on the 2nd wave/backend idea.
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It's about the same as 6z. Nice 6hr snow thump for cities before mixing drops 3-5". Then a little snow on the backend Friday. I'd take it. Far N/W folks probably won't like it because it's drier there as they're between bands.
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RGEM kinda sucks. Much drier for DC and points south. Slighty colder at 850 and 700, but not enough to make a huge difference.
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My wife and mother-in-law both got their first this morning!
