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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The Canadian was more snowy than its 12z run across the area. But because of it's crazy evolution it shows Lake Effect from every direction on every lake at some point and you get lots of 2-4 foot totals around them all.
  2. John1122
    The Canadian would be an extremely rare storm. Models show that look of a low retrograding to the WNW on occasion but it almost never happened. I've seen it modeled several times over the years and none of them verified. The Great Appalachian Storm of 1950 did that. And maybe one of the 70s blizzards. They are extremely rare.
  3. John1122
    Beautiful pass by the GFS. ICON trended towards it as well. Still 72 hours before we can get a better idea what might happen.
  4. John1122
    I've seen that post showing the 12z gfs snowfall map from that person shared at least 25 times on social media today. It wears me out. The worse part, he claimed all models were showing it then argued with the few people who told him how futile it was to even share that map on social media with people who don't understand its context.
  5. John1122
    I love looking back on these threads to see what went right or wrong. So I'm glad it's here. I feel like it'll be Tuesday before we have the right idea or something close, on this one. I will say this, I was reading the CPC talking about model biases and model verification. It noted that the GFS scored much better in what they called "extreme events" and I believe this qualifies. It also noted that all models had a North precip shield being to dry bias West of the Appalachians. Something we've discussed on here for years.
  6. John1122
    That GFS run was similar to the wild Euro run either yesterday or day before.
  7. John1122
    I just read a post, maybe even by you, from the March storm as it approached, that the Euro had just completely caved to the GFS. That said, this one is still early in the game regarding the storm. Extreme cold seems nearly unavoidable but it would be tempered with snow vs without snow. There's still very often major model disagreement inside 90 hours over the last few years.
  8. John1122
    We will see where it ends up and who caves, but the Euro is erratic to say the least, right now.
  9. John1122
    It's odd to watch these models cutting storms straight towards the heart of a big H over Eastern Canada then they get caught in Northern Michigan and sit and spin because they can't go any further.
  10. John1122
    It's liable to be way off but it did this in March this year when the Euro was reluctant to get on board at this range.
  11. John1122
    I suspect the Euro may have the issue the cpc noted several days ago where models weren't allowing storms to feel blocking properly. They noted that storms should be pushed further south than they were being modeled. It doesn't make a ton of sense to see a storm heading for Michigan with a massive -NAO in place.
  12. John1122
    The Euro keeps firing blanks. It did that often with last years events as well before finally catching up. Hopefully that's the case here.
  13. John1122
    Seems like there was a big snow event just to my NW and parts of Kentucky that got the snow were in the -15 to -20 range. I got to -2 or -3 4 times in a 10 day period. When that cold hit everything was shunted to the deep south/southeast coast.
  14. John1122
    A met on Southern who has been designing his own model posted his latest run and it was a doozy. Unlikely to happen but his model showed a power house Miller A with widespread 12-15 inch totals across basically the same areas that got heavy snow in March. Slightly lesser totals far Eastern areas but still 6+ inches there. No idea what goes into his house model but it would be glorious if it were some how correct.
  15. John1122
    I was below freezing from around Christmas until January 10th. Had some highs in the 10s and lows below 0, which is maybe only one of three times I remember that without at least an inch of snow on the ground.
  16. John1122
    I was thinking 17-18 was cold to the coast and the deep south got snow while we were mostly dry but frigid.
  17. John1122
    17-18 was our last monster cold wave. Unfortunately it was also arctic dry. Had we managed snow cover we'd have seen -10s that time. Still, we were two weeks below freezing and the creek had ice 8 inches thick here. Late December and early January cold waves are different due to that low sun angle. When they hit, we get a lot of frozen creeks and ponds. Hopefully we get snow with this one.
  18. John1122
    The ridge out west will be all the difference for our area, it needs to be a little taller than it was on the Euro to get a solution more like the GFS from 12z. The consensus now is cold, and a system that has a great deal of spread in it's evolution. So right now I'd feel very comfortable saying it's going to get very cold. Somewhat comfortable saying that there will at least be flakes in the air somewhere in our region as we head towards Christmas week, but very unsure about anything beyond that.
  19. John1122
    I think we will get it in this pattern. It's rare to get such a potent front to move through that doesn't at least bring some snow with it.
  20. John1122
    Wild, wound up storm on the Euro. Wraps in incredible cold and snowy weather across the region.
  21. John1122
    Really nice clipper pass on the 0z for most of the area. Reminds me of the old Siberian express systems that would dump 2-4 inches of snow and rush in extreme cold behind it. The Canadian is almost as snowy, but even colder than the GFS through 210.
  22. John1122
    Poured all day here as well. There was some thunder around 5pm this evening too.
  23. John1122
    The Euro is still not where we'd like it to be, but it's slow to get on board over the last few years, on systems like this. We've had a few nice anafrontal events including the 2020 Christmas eve snow, that the GFS spotted first.
  24. John1122
    The 12z suite is coming in cold and the snow was back to some extent on the GFS and the Canadian is all in.
  25. John1122
    The GFS is so extreme that there's a late run snow event where New Orleans is too far north to be in the heavy snow axis. Mobile and Panama City do really well.
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