John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The GFS is trying for the d9 storm, Plateau and west to the mid-state. Canadian is a far western ice storm with a low running west of the apps. 12+ hours of upper 20s to lower 30s in West Tennessee while Eastern areas are in the 50s. The euro is much warmer than either and it's all rain. So every model has the storm, the path is the big question.
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This was I-75 about 5 miles as the crow flies from me, about an hour ago.
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The radar looked healthy down that way. I was wondering if it was getting to the surface.
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It was enough to close schools across the Northern border counties. So plenty of happy kids and sad parents.
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Have around an inch. More than I expected. Snow is steady but small flakes, 28 degrees. 75 is a mess as are other highways in the area.
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Back home from basketball.
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It's reaching the ground here.
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There was a break on radar, then it's filled back in and it's snowing harder now. Up to nickel sized flakes. 32 degrees.
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The back side, if the angle works, should produce. It's snowing in Nashville and Clarksville.
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Snow is now falling here. Temp went from 39 to 34 before it started. On my way to a basketball game in Jacksboro. Hopefully it continues to pick up.
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Sky has lowered and the temp has dropped 5 degrees in the last 45 minutes. Flakes should be reaching here soon. Had some virga so far.
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Snow is falling again this afternoon. Nothing heavy but festive for the first day of winter/December.
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Decent snow shower working over. Ironically, I went from a 20 percent chance of snow to having it removed from the forecast when it had started snowing.
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Getting flakes here. That's three times in November. Pretty decent considering we were +9 before today.
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I've got an uncle who's 90 and in hospice, going into his final days. He looks just like my grandfather(his dad) who got me hooked on weather. It's tough getting older, in that we lose so many folks we thought were giants growing up. Condolences to you and your wife. Have a safe trip.
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Another major winter storm later in the GFS run. Ice to rain to heavy snow imby.
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As winter is about to start, and start cold, my final expectation for this winter is overall warm. I think we will get a November repeat, which was overall very warm but had cold interludes like the one we are in now. Out of the 12 weeks of winter, I expect the balance to be AN with a few short windows where we may get chances at winter storms. We will start with a 2 week to 3 week base cold pattern, then likely warm for a portion of late December and January. Possibly, like November with the late month cooling, we get a shot the last week of January and first week of February or so. One of the bigger monkey wrenches for snow, is that we are still in a very dry, relative to normal, pattern. We only need a short window, as evidenced by last year. That two week burst had people begging for mercy.
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What Carvers is referring to. The GFS came out with a colorful Friday map instead of a black Friday map.
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2013-14 was frigid in January and cold/snowy in February. We had a particularly big snow around Valentines day here.
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Just had a heck of a rumble of thunder. It's not quite winter but I'm hoping the T.I.Ms index fires.
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The Euro has light snow with clipper one but a bit more with a second clipper early next week. The icon has the clipper but way north. Hopefully the Euro is onto something. So far it's actually been less grinchy with snow chances than the GFS.
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Modeling continues to show a storm in the under D10 range. Rainer on the Euro for areas outside the Plateau/Mountains, NETn/SWVA, suppressed and frigid on the GFS with a bit of snow in South Carolina as things develop too late. Canadian is a Tennessee special, especially south of 40. Euro/Canadian are close on depiction, just a little colder on the Canadian and about 12-24 hours later.
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In a less than usual situation, the GFS is actually warmer than the Euro and less snowy in the d7-11 range. But neither are particularly warm.
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I peaked out at 3/4ths of an inch. My cousin up the road got 2.5 inches. They were 29-31 the entire night. I got down to 31 briefly and went back up to 33 by this morning.
