John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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I was just thinking the other day, this is how winter was back in the 70s and 80s. It started snowing in November and has snowed several times since then. Including one day time event. I'll have to look back and see the last time we had three snows that accumulated in late November into the first ten days of December.
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The Euro tossed out a snowball for Christmas. Probably a headfake, as every model seems to be throwing them out there in that time frame.
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That 12z gfs reminds me of the Christmas 2014 snow then upslope event.
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The Canadian (which was excellent for this morning's event) had a similar path to the Euro AI model that had an East Coast storm. Pretty classic path for much more of East Tennessee to see snow than was depicted by the model. Crashing cold and a low that tracks over interior SC and NC a good 90 miles or so from the coast. GFS is progressive and just sweeps everything out. Something it's been doing a lot of early as winter is starting, before playing catch up late.
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The 12z AI Euro was a major winter storm from Nashville west as a storm ran the Apps.
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Fairly moderate snow as the pulse moved across. Big quarter + sized flakes.
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Looks like some vigorous moisture moving in from the West that may spread more flakes across the area.
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We ended up in about the same boat. The RGEM was just about perfect here.
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About 1.5 inches here. 30 degrees and probably on my last burst looking at the radar. Another overperformer here. Hopefully we can get some big ticket overperfomers before winter ends.
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A few hundred feet makes a world of difference (about 2 degrees vs 1200 ft).
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Around 3/4ths inch at the house when I left. Heavy snow in town but a heavy dusting so far. It was 32 at the house and it's 34 in town.
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Driving off the mountain.
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GFS with a late surge.
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The RAP is getting more on board as well.
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The GFS is making a late surge and bringing heavy snow back to the plateau and points east. It puts down 3 inches in Knoxville.
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Looks like MRX is rolling with the NAM as a heavy favorite in the current modeling. The HRRR has been increasing potential totals steadily, with the RGEM being steadfast in a decent event.
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The GFS and Canadian/RGEM are singing a wintery tune for this week at 00z. It would be great if they're correct.
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The EPO doesn't always work for us. It can be too far West and dump the cold there while we get cutters. But when it's right, we don't have to worry about rain, just suppression and pipe busting cold behind storms.
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The GFS is back on with the winter storm. Hopefully we can lock in to a stable and winter weather solution.
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You can see below the temps in Kentucky. It's 48 in Jellico but 32 about 10 miles away in Clarfield.
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Really strange that it's in the mid to upper 40s all around me but it's 33 here. There's a small pocket of lower 30s in part of Campbell and Claiborne County. I thought the cold front must have passed but it's 44 to 48 north and west of me.
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3k NAM is trying to give another 1/2 inch to 2 inch event to the area on Wednesday night. The RGEM is sort of on board too.
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The cold is impressive. I've only gotten up to 27 today.
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It ended up steadily snowing until about 5 am here, tiny flakes once it got below 30 but I ended up with 1.75 inches.
