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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    NAM 3k had been by far the most bearish model, even it had a decent uptick with some 3+ inch bands in the middle valley areas north of Nashville.
  2. John1122
    I don't blame MRX either, this would be an unusual event to have that much post frontal snow, everything they mention in AFD is about rapid drying and maybe 2-3 hours of snowfall at best. I guess either the models will blink tomorrow or MRX may have to up totals just in case. I suspect ultimately a winter weather advisory for the Smokies/Wise/NE Mountains, SPS otherwise.
  3. John1122
    Still heavy snow in the eastern areas at 39.
  4. John1122
    The 21z 39 hour RAP is going bonkers forum wide.
  5. John1122
    November to date. My house -9 Crossville -8.9 London, KY -9.6 Memphis -9.3 Nashville -7.6 Jackson, Tn -9.8 Huntsville, Al -8.4 Oak Ridge -6.7 Tazewell -6.1 Chattanooga -6 Tri - 7.1 Knox -7.8 Abingdon, Va -6 Cookeville -8.8 Murfreesboro -10.1 (suspect a data issue as it shows Murfreesboro with a high of only 34 on the 4th, other stations have a high in the upper 50s that day in the mid state.) Generally the forum area is -6 to -9 for the month to date so far. It should go down even more with the incoming cold blast. We may finish the first half of the month at -10 or lower.
  6. John1122
    Just saw this thread had opened. MRX basically going with 1/2 inch or less below 2500 right now.
  7. John1122
    RGEM is healthy through the end of its run. Still snowing in the eastern areas at the end of the run with this down.
  8. John1122
    MRX is seemingly tossing most modeling and going with 1/2 inch below 2500 ft on the Plateau, Central Valley and NE Tn. Can't really blame them. Models seem to often overdo post frontal moisture.
  9. John1122
    Morning disco from MRX. Hopefully the change over is fast, this is a major cold air mass and they mention possible record lows Wednesday morning. My current point forecast is for a low of 28 with a high of 30 on Tuesday with "less than an inch" wording. Which I suspect will probably be correct.
  10. John1122
    Starting to creep into the RGEM range. The snow line is basically north of 40 and to the edge western edge of the plateau by 48 hours. Sleeting/freezing rain event in n Miss/ sw Tn per the RGEM at 48. If the timing stays consistent and there is the advertised post-frontal precip the models are playing out, I figure the night time hours will aid Mid and Western areas with sticking possibilities.
  11. John1122
    The NAM really let it ride for the mid-state with 2-4 inches, a good portion of the forum area sees 1-2 inches outside the midstate. I'd guess maybe 1/2 to 1/3rd of it will stick on non-raised surfaces if it come to pass.
  12. John1122
    Euro is healthy again for almost the entire forum area.
  13. John1122
    We pull it off sometimes too, but it's not common by any means. Especially more than a dusting.
  14. John1122
    The Euro/GFS are insistent that a lot of the forum area will get an inch or more of snow in the Monday Night/Tuesday timeframe. The Euro shows 1 inch from near Memphis, to Chattanooga and North. Euro and GFS are really keying on the Knox to Tri area for 1.5-3 inches.
  15. John1122
    Not surprisingly, the Euro is a no-go for the longer range event, but most models are now spitting out 3/4ths to 1.5 inches over a pretty large section of the forum depending on the model. The Euro is Eastern areas, GFS Nashville west along and north of 40. NAM gets Alabama in on the action.
  16. John1122
    Only hit 41 this afternoon. Temp nosed down quickly once the sun set. Down to 31 now.
  17. John1122
    I believe the control is a lower resolution run of the main model but not 100 percent sure.
  18. John1122
    Virtually all leaves are gone here except for a few trees, but elevation didn't play a role this year here either. The peak was short and almost universal over about a 2000 foot elevation window.
  19. John1122
    I feel like going full weenie over the Euro, but I know that is extremely unlikely to unfold favorably for us. I'm going to minor weenie and cling onto the hopes of a dusting to an inch on Tuesday.
  20. John1122
    Euro and GFS back way off. Canadian still healthy for eastern areas. Don't trust any of them at this range as sad as that is, but feel like backside flurries with some flow snow showers is probably going to be correct.
  21. John1122
    I assume the TWC forecast must auto generate off one of the models. It throws out 1-3 inches Monday night with a low in the upper 20s and 1-3 Tuesday with a high of 29 for my area.
  22. John1122
    All 3 major models are spitting out snow for the area, most of the valley would see at least 1/4th to 1/2 inch on car tops etc with some areas getting 1-3 inches from most of the 0z suite. I have a hard time believing it but we've seen more unusual/out of area/out of season type snows in the south than actual winter type snows lately it seems. So maybe it's our time to get lucky for a change instead of New Orleans, Houston or other places normally hostile to snow.
  23. John1122
    Euro is a Miller A, but further north than the GFS but is a healthy snow system from Nashville to Maryville and points north with flakes in the air at least for most of the forum region.
  24. John1122
    0z GFS is bouncing a little more back to earlier runs vs the 18z run that was a bunch of nothing. Great Miller A track with a classically underdone precip shield in our area. Some rock solid snow for central Alabama though.
  25. John1122
    I'm a fan of Pivotal Weather's Euro access, gonna support them via Patron in hopes it can stay free for everyone.
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