EasternLI

That's a good point, and a nice observation as usual. I strongly agree with the bolded. It's exceedingly difficult to have ridging in both locations simultaneously. That's been documented in the research as well. It makes sense too, when you think about it. Like when we see a trough on the west coast and ridge on the east coast. Maybe part of the story of the ++NAO during those years with the --EPO. Interesting.

This is my favorite thing that I've seen that I've been watching. Seems like the IOD has indeed muted the MJO in the Maritime Continent this month as was hypothesized by causing subsidence. It's been weakening. As it loses its influence more and more moving forward, what might be the dominant forcing then? I still like where we're heading. This is not last year.

Ensembles look pretty damn good as we move into the new year. GEFS and now the Eps today.

Cheer up. It seems like things are coming together nicely. Just not yet. Watch what happens when we start getting into January.

Christmas day high temps on the EURO.

Well verbatim, if the EPS is correct. It's the plains that sees the real torch and we are on the periphery. AN though, yes. Be interesting to see where it ends up. Going to need to put up some big numbers to close out the month if you want +2 or better imo.

Its also a reversal of the torch December's that we have been accustomed to for those years.

Interesting move from yesterday to today on the EPS. Yesterday, the TPV lobe in Canada was split with the dominant piece amplifying the AK vortex. Today, it's headed for SE Canada and 50/50 bound thereafter. Plus more arctic ridging yet again.

I've been intrigued by this winter for some time now. I still am.

AO heading in the right direction.

Big Iceland storm, looks wild.

What once looked like an AK vortex, now looks more like an aleutian low. Plus west coast trough previously advertised is off the coast a bit now. Allows the brief PNA spike. Arctic ridging trending a bit more robust too. Should be fun to see how it plays out.

That one is a little bit interesting IMO. The weekend storm could possibly amplify into an effective 50/50 and pop a little ridge in Greenland. Ninja'd by bluewave lol

Pouring over here. And the radar says it's not going to stop for a while. This is a good soaking.

Hopefully this trend continues....

Here's a very interesting tidbit from the twitterverse. I could be wrong, but I still think this winter is going to be a fun one.

This was a really impressive GEFS run today.

Wow, we're going into the freezer if this is right.

Well I'd venture a guess that climo would be one factor. It's still really early in the season. So you would probably need something more anonymous. Maybe a stronger block. Or a better PNA perhaps, along with that block.

Well, there was blocking though. The block broke down and the storm happened. Which is how it usually goes. Look at Greenland at the end of November.

Interesting that some guidance is hinting at a piece of the TPV making a run through SE Canada. Ensembles don't necessarily disagree with that notion.

I agree. Sounds like last year to me. I'm wondering if the +IOD can mute that somewhat. Being that it's helping with subsidence in that area.

+PNA emerging after the 9th on EPS and GEFS today. So both are advertising that now. Not such a bad way to head into met winter, given the potential beforehand. Regardless of how anything plays out.

I don't know. We'll just have to see what happens, but I'm not really seeing as many similarities with last December right now. Other than the eastern Africa/west IO area, the canvas looks totally different to me. One other thing is, I don't really hate dealing with a phase 2 in December. Especially if the +IOD can constructively interfere with it. Last year it seemed like we were plagued by 3,4,5 for endless amounts of time and everything else was muted. Hopefully we can get some variation of the following.