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EasternLI

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Everything posted by EasternLI

  1. EasternLI
    Caught up in the imminent nor'easter attm. But worth noting the +AAM percolating into the NH a little bit better this time since the big AAM spike.
  2. EasternLI
    Yeah, efficient mixing was what caught my eye on that sounding. That's going to be problematic. And I'm already getting gusts around 40mph here right now currently. We're looking at tomorrow night on that. Yikes.
  3. EasternLI
    Ouch. Tomorrow night is really going to rip some winds through here. This is from the euro. 925mb plus a sounding from the same time. I usually feel like winds are whatever, but this time it looks kind of legit. Nam just spit out something similar too.
  4. EasternLI
    Hopefully nam just being the nam and was up all night drinking. I'd really rather not see any 978mb tempest sitting anywhere out there by later on today.
  5. EasternLI
    Most models seem to have the system max out sometime between 00z and 06z Sunday. So here's the 12z Euro ensembles at 06z Sunday. First image standard physics based EPS. Second image AI EPS. Personally still thinking this occurs somewhere just south of Montauk (~50-100mi). Be interesting to see what guidance does tonight.
  6. EasternLI
    I think the track on the euro AI ens is close to ultimately how this goes. With the loop west just south of somewhere between Suffolk co and Block island. That feels about right given everything. Has been quite breezy already this week. Expecting pretty big impacts from this thing locally.
  7. EasternLI
    AIFS-ENS sure seems to favor the idea of this thing having some impact...
  8. EasternLI
  9. EasternLI
    Yeah the PDO is an important feature in the grand scheme of things. I would advise against diminishing it's ability to modulating this event, as I have said before. How much and in what way is an intriguing question though given a record breaking el nino. See the above CPC text from @bluewave. "the PDO phase is negative and may dampen the typical impacts of a strong El Niño in certain areas" Ok, but how? Where? The following study goes into that a little bit: Modulation of ENSO teleconnections over North America by the Pacific decadal oscillation https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9327 The main finding from this multi-model SMILE study is that a positive PDO acts to amplify El Niño and diminish La Niña teleconnections over North America, while a negative PDO has the opposite effect. we find that the largest modulation occurs for temperature over Alaska and Canada and precipitation over California. Our work builds on Dong et al (2018), who make similar conclusions, by focusing specifically on North America and demonstrating that these results are robust across multiple fully coupled climate models. While Dong et al (2018) forced their atmospheric model with fixed SST patterns for 50 years, we show that the amplification and diminishment of ENSO teleconnections by the PDO hold for a realistic model configuration where ENSO events occur with a variety of patterns, amplitudes, and durations. Atmospheric circulation anomalies are found to mediate the modulation of ENSO by the PDO. Specifically, Aleutian low and Pacific jet anomalies associated with an El Niño are enhanced by a positive PDO and weakened by a negative PDO. This result is consistent with the results of Dong and Dai (2015), who show that Pacific Decadal Variability (measured using the IPO) influences North America via the atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific. we find that the modulation of ENSO temperature and precipitation teleconnections over North America by the PDO can be described as a simple combination of the effect of the individual modes. This result agrees well with Rao et al (2019) who suggest a linear interference of the impacts of the two modes is likely.
  10. EasternLI
  11. EasternLI
    Yeah, while not impressive at all that's still nice to see. Models were hinting that something like that was possible last week and it is coming to fruition. Aside from them traversing through the warm pool east of Japan. They can also be a catalyst to invigorate an Aleutian low. Not saying this one is any of that but in general. We want to see that. So let's see if we can get anything else to do that moving forward. And maybe we can in early October if that trough in east asia is real because the tropical activity probably will be.
  12. EasternLI
    Different visual on the AAM, but to the point of the latitude AAM chart posted. It's telling the same story. Namely that the tropics and SH are still in the spotlight WRT +AAM. Meanwhile the NH, is still on the sidelines for the most part. Very clearly broken down on the bottom half of the chart via regional contributions. Which remain around neutral for the NH components. One other thing to note is regarding the +AAM spike upcoming. That looks to be a byproduct of a recent rather large +MT event in the SH (Andes) mostly. Which is the same thing that happened with the previous ones we've seen to date thus far. So that's not too surprising given the state of the SH vs NH as discussed above and in this thread. These are all obs, not a forecast. We'll see how it goes from here but the NH apparently still needs to be brought into this game as of right now.
  13. EasternLI
    Yeah IDK just thinking out loud one way I could see it go without too much thought. Actually, the -PDO October might be the best fit for that north Pacific and NA look advertised if we reverse this color scheme accordingly. I'm curious what happens that month as we're really getting into autumn at that point. Not much confidence one way or another.
  14. EasternLI
    This GOA low starting to show up as we roll into October. It's kind of something similar to what one would expect to see showing up during el nino in October. Ensembles advertising this look to start out the month. One could say The Aleutian low is simply biased east from the following composite. Thinking that might very well be a plausible idea given the east based nature of this particular event. In addition to the residual state of the north Pacific but let's see how that entire month verifies and evolves. If we envision a roadmap purely from the nino composite, we should see that low eventually retrograde and the ridge just west of the dateline get squashed.
  15. EasternLI
    Another really impressive thing about this event is how effective it is in shutting down the Atlantic hurricane season. So far it has been at least. Record high wind shear for August. This is following a record high July also. These have led to a record low ACE value in the Atlantic for this date currently.
  16. EasternLI
    Current WWB verifying a tick stronger vs what models had advertised. Same thing happened with the last one too.
  17. EasternLI
    Yeah, next big WWB just getting underway now.
  18. EasternLI
    On the latest 30 day means of VP 200 anomalies. I see only one other event even remotely comparable to this one. 97-98 and this one looks like a beast next to that even. Super impressive stuff. I mean just look at this thing...
  19. EasternLI
    After falling back somewhat, albeit much less than earlier forecasts were advertising. Seemingly due to some -MT activity mostly. The next +AAM uptick is now imminent and from an already very elevated level (>+2). Likely achieving a new high for this event (>+3). This time, it seems poised to more readily affect the NH than any other time over the summer. So that will be interesting to see how that plays out and how it verifies. Right on time it feels like, to me, as we start heading through MET autumn but let's see how it goes.
  20. EasternLI
    I do not have any prior runs saved for comparison, unfortunately. However, it does look quite wet for Dec.
  21. EasternLI
    Dec, Jan, Feb :
  22. EasternLI
    Cansips for DJF:
  23. EasternLI
    Yeah this pesky ridge east of Japan still being pesky. Not really any signs yet of it going away for the foreseeable future as of now. Interestingly, that seems to be a hallmark of a negative PDO during Sept. Meanwhile, the el nino during Sept would have you believe it should have some resistance or begin to fade away. That's a curious feature. Will be interesting to continue watching that. Want that to go away so we can get a recurving typhoon or two.
  24. EasternLI
    Last 30 days, this year is head and shoulders above the rest of the super nino's. Quite an impressive look on the VP 200 charts now.
  25. EasternLI
    Pretty good WWB ongoing right now actually. This looks to be verifying a tick stronger than guidance had been showing. Another good one coming in a week to 10 days too it appears. No question El nino is in control of the tropics. MJO is MIA faced with this event. All el nino IMO. Maybe some hint of it increasing influence into the north pacific during Sept on the AIFS-Ens now. But we'll have to see how that goes and how that verifies.
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