EasternLI

Man, take a look at these clusters from the EPS 00z run last night. Very clearly we've trended to the getting an actual block to form in the first place scenario. So here's the 5-7 day period now. All of them with the big Atlantic block, and the 3rd one just goes ape with it. Then beyond that, in the day 10-15 range. The leading scenario transitions from that, to a good old fashioned west based NAO block.

Well wouldn't that be a phenomenal series of events were that to happen. I remember reading about +EAMT events potentially being a catalyst leading towards strat disruption at some point in the past somewhere. So that makes total sense to me. Thanks for mentioning it, I kinda forgot all about that possible consequence. Yeah, these are very interesting features to keep tabs on for sure.

Speaking of the stratosphere shenanigans. This is one heck of an interesting chart to see come out from that euro extended. We downwell right through January?

EPS is on board with that from the looks of things. Plus it looks like there's actually a slight firing up of the Jet in the near term too. Perhaps models started to hone in on that recently hence the shifts lately? Being just enough to amplify everything just a little bit. Looks as though Santa decided to drop a little bit of high pressure east of the Himalayas in 36 hours. And you can see the jet wake up slightly from being completely dead off Asia previous to that. Longer range, days 10-15. As per the hints from previous EPS runs. A much stronger Siberian high pressure is still looking to pay a visit to the east of the Himalayas. With the stronger jet extension now starting to more clearly present itself in that period. +EAMT event coming into better view now across guidance.

2 out of 3 clusters from the EPS 12z run would be a major arctic blast to ring in the new year... So 8-10 day range. Check out cluster 2 with the exotic Atlantic/Pacific ridge bridge too. Which is the cluster they have included the OP run with. Absolutely frigid air up in that source region.

Just looking through modeling trends and thinking about this again today...

Yeah, just wouldn't be surprised to see changes happen a couple or few days before the 15th is all I'm saying. Nothing crazy. That is a good point about the vortex too. Absolutely.

Yeah nice video from him. Brought up some of what I posted about on Saturday. I'm a little quicker with the process though. Don't need convection at the dateline for things to happen. It's well underway before that. Still think a +PNA is a very real possibility though too. But same general idea. Pacific jet fires off and these waves break. I think the 00z EPS is still suggesting that the whole process gets underway too TBH.

There's a shakeup for the Pacific in the pipeline as we start getting into January. I think this could offer an opportunity for a period of +PNA after the 1st week when these waves break but we'll see. Maybe this ties into Ray's @40/70 Benchmark ideas mid-month so maybe it's part of that timing to transition to +TNH. But I think sometime week 2 we see some changes and maybe clues to that happening during the 1st week of the month. We're being plagued with a series of -EAMT retracting the Pac jet and locking the Pacific block in place on guidance in perpetuity. High pressure into the west of the Himalayas removes the momentum. While high pressure on the east side would add it. This is likely going to change as we start heading into January. An active convective phase looks to cross an Indian Ocean to MC transit to close out December. These set in motion a series of events that eventually leads to +EAMT and a Pacific jet extension. Even at the end of the current EPS 12z I think we can see some signs of a changing Pacific regime. With high pressure building in Siberia in better position and a Jet beginning to be reinvigorated off the coast of Asia.

Regardless of what happens with this blocking potential. I think there's a pretty good chance of popping a +PNA after that first week of January. Via Pacific wave break. I can make a longer post about that tomorrow.

Doubt anyone anywhere sees much of any NAO blocking, unless an actual Scandinavian block happens first. The open ridges rolling over won't work for anyone. Including Europe. Models and ensembles still all over the place with that too. And that's something starting towards day 7 at this point. Need it to happen...

Might be doable. Previous runs had that ridge centered more in Iowa. It's already ticked west a little bit. Maybe that continues.

Still trending on the 00z.

Trending towards the powerhouse Scandinavian block scenario in that 8-10 range on the EPS. As a consequence of that, it's also trending towards a powerhouse Greenland block scenario arriving in the longer range 11-15 day clusters.

Damn who screwed up your breakfast order... happy holidays to you too I'll take the under on 50's after Friday. Seeing a lot of lows in the 20's though.

Can we please make this a thing. Thanks.

This run is vastly different from all the previous gefs runs along the eastern seaboard.

Personally, I'm thinking this 8-10 day range here is pretty meaningful. Does Santa deliver a true Scandinavian block or not. Some of these half attempts probably don't work well for us. This is from the 12z eps cluster analysis. 5 of them for this period today. Todays Euro OP says no, and is grouped with cluster 2. Cluster 1 on the eps, populated with a greater number of members says yes. I flipped this for easier viewing of our side of the world. So clusters 1-5 is left to right. Days 8-10 are bottom to top. If we do happen to see an amplified block like the 1st cluster is displaying then you'd probably see a pretty big wave 2 shot that goes up into the strat along with it. If that does not happen, then you won't see that. Probably not a retrograde to a true -NAO block either I would assume. You can see it expressed in the EPS strat mean during this timeframe too. Which is most likely reflecting that potential feature in the members. One way or another, we want to see that block happen. Incidentally, there are factors which support the block to indeed happen based on reasons laid out in this thread already. We wait and see if one does actually materialize but it does appear as a favored outcome in this 12z eps run as well.

Two clusters on eps cluster analysis in the long range last night. -NAO of unknown impact the general idea. There is a road in some analogs where we start January with a -NAO and as we lose that, the PNA goes positive. Could we take that road this year?

I've been optimistic and I remain optimistic for this winter as a whole. Look warmth is by far and away the favorite to win out as we move through future decades. That's reality. We aren't all the way there yet either though. Some still get blown away seeing very impressive warm records when they occur. Which is fine. To me, that's to be expected more and more in the future during warm patterns anyway. Cold is more exciting and tends to bring exciting weather especially in winter. Plus I enjoy rooting for underdogs! Yet at the same time I'm going to be honest. Being disingenuous is stupid and makes no sense to me in any facet of life. This year feels like it's acting quite different than the recent ratters we've had. Sure there's a mild pattern set to visit for a time. That's legit, as discussed. IMO it's probably something like 1 week, maybe 2 tops. And new england might not even see very much of that. But this is starting to look more and more like the old classic Scandinavian Block > -NAO sequencing. Do note there is a mild period included during the beginning of that process.

How have the AI Ens been doing? I haven't been following too closely. Some suggestion on them that the pacific trough would retrograde further out into the GOA. With subsequent increasing heights in the PNA region. If you loop them.

Snow is falling here. We'll see what we end up with.

18z Euro

18Z RRFS

Yeah, HRRR gone wild. And still going lol.